Every month, the Assembly’s Statistics Directorate issues a ‘key economic statistics bulletin’, which describes how the Welsh economy is faring across a range of difference factors and allows us to examine, in particular, its performance during the last twelve months.
The latest data shows that, in terms of employment, the seasonally adjusted estimate of the total number in employment in Wales was 1.322 million in February 2006. This accounted for a fall in employment of 12,000 (0.9%) from a year earlier. Overall, there has been very little change over the last year in terms of the employment rate, and it seems unlikely that we will see any further major increases in net employment during the next twelve months. The number of working age adults in employment in the UK has increased at a time when the employment rate in Wales has gone down to 71.3% from 72.3% in the corresponding period a year earlier.
Perhaps the statistic which remains the most worrying is the number of economically inactive people within Wales i.e. those who are not in employment or not claiming unemployment benefit. The data shows that there is a stubborn resistance in increasing the number of people who are active within the economy, with 442,000 adults of a working age i.e. from 16 to 59/64 being economically inactive, a slight rise on a year ago. This amounts to 24.8 per cent of all working age adults in Wales as compared to a rate of 21.3 per cent for the UK. In real terms, if Wales had the same rate as the UK, then an additional 62,000 adults would be economically active in Wales, and making a contribution to the wealth of this nation.
Geographically, the highest rates of economic inactivity are to be found within the counties of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil and Neath Port Talbot, all of which have nearly a third of their adult population classed as economically inactive. Given that over £1.3 billion of European funding has been spent within the Objective 1 areas of Wales, there is a question over whether these funds have made any real difference in reducing the rates of economic inactivity within the poorest counties.
In terms of industrial statistics in Wales, it is worrying to note that manufacturing output in Wales fell by 6.6% compared with the previous 4 quarters. In contrast, UK output fell by 1.1% during the same period. In terms of exports, the value of Welsh goods sold overseas in 2005 rose by £237 million (2.9%) on 2004. This performance was again below that of the UK, where export sales rose by 9.1 per cent.
Given these statistics, it seems that, in terms of employment and economic activity, nothing much is happening within Wales at the moment, which is disappointing given the fact that this gap between Wales and the rest of the UK is reflected in our prosperity figures which, at the last count in 2004, show Wales firmly rooted to the bottom of the UK economic league table. More worryingly perhaps is the performance of manufacturing, and especially exporting, relative to the rest of the UK during the last year. Certainly, there needs to be improvement in these areas if we are to make a difference to the Welsh economy in the future.
Of course, the question for many is what exactly can the Assembly do in terms of economic development policies that can make a real difference? Neither Rome, nor a competitive Welsh economy, was built in a day. However, with the Assembly elections only twelve months away, the business sector should certainly begin to take a careful look at the different policies being developed by the political parties competing for the Assembly elections in 2007 and assess which can make a real difference to kickstarting the Welsh economy to close the prosperity gap with the rest of the UK.
The latest data shows that, in terms of employment, the seasonally adjusted estimate of the total number in employment in Wales was 1.322 million in February 2006. This accounted for a fall in employment of 12,000 (0.9%) from a year earlier. Overall, there has been very little change over the last year in terms of the employment rate, and it seems unlikely that we will see any further major increases in net employment during the next twelve months. The number of working age adults in employment in the UK has increased at a time when the employment rate in Wales has gone down to 71.3% from 72.3% in the corresponding period a year earlier.
Perhaps the statistic which remains the most worrying is the number of economically inactive people within Wales i.e. those who are not in employment or not claiming unemployment benefit. The data shows that there is a stubborn resistance in increasing the number of people who are active within the economy, with 442,000 adults of a working age i.e. from 16 to 59/64 being economically inactive, a slight rise on a year ago. This amounts to 24.8 per cent of all working age adults in Wales as compared to a rate of 21.3 per cent for the UK. In real terms, if Wales had the same rate as the UK, then an additional 62,000 adults would be economically active in Wales, and making a contribution to the wealth of this nation.
Geographically, the highest rates of economic inactivity are to be found within the counties of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil and Neath Port Talbot, all of which have nearly a third of their adult population classed as economically inactive. Given that over £1.3 billion of European funding has been spent within the Objective 1 areas of Wales, there is a question over whether these funds have made any real difference in reducing the rates of economic inactivity within the poorest counties.
In terms of industrial statistics in Wales, it is worrying to note that manufacturing output in Wales fell by 6.6% compared with the previous 4 quarters. In contrast, UK output fell by 1.1% during the same period. In terms of exports, the value of Welsh goods sold overseas in 2005 rose by £237 million (2.9%) on 2004. This performance was again below that of the UK, where export sales rose by 9.1 per cent.
Given these statistics, it seems that, in terms of employment and economic activity, nothing much is happening within Wales at the moment, which is disappointing given the fact that this gap between Wales and the rest of the UK is reflected in our prosperity figures which, at the last count in 2004, show Wales firmly rooted to the bottom of the UK economic league table. More worryingly perhaps is the performance of manufacturing, and especially exporting, relative to the rest of the UK during the last year. Certainly, there needs to be improvement in these areas if we are to make a difference to the Welsh economy in the future.
Of course, the question for many is what exactly can the Assembly do in terms of economic development policies that can make a real difference? Neither Rome, nor a competitive Welsh economy, was built in a day. However, with the Assembly elections only twelve months away, the business sector should certainly begin to take a careful look at the different policies being developed by the political parties competing for the Assembly elections in 2007 and assess which can make a real difference to kickstarting the Welsh economy to close the prosperity gap with the rest of the UK.
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