Hindsight is a wonderful thing in politics.
With Plaid Cymru trumpeting their narrow loss in 2003 to Denise Idris Jones in Conwy as the reason for them being the only party who could beat the Labour Party in the constituency, we decided to run an advert in the local paper saying that the Conservatives were in second place to Labour in the last general election, were the only rational choice against Labour and that Plaid would prop up the government if elected.
The reaction from the Party of Wales was immediate, with senior Plaid officials phoning our party HQ in Cardiff accusing us of lies and demanding a public apology and retraction which, of course, we refused to do.
Unfortunately, we ran this campaign only two weeks before the election and should have focused on this issue earlier and harder.
There we go - lessons to be learnt for future battles, especially as the two main parties vying for the anti-Labour vote saw their vote increase in the constituency, albeit with Plaid Cymru winning the seat much to my disappointment.
With many commentators now stating that the red-green coalition will become the Welsh Government in the next couple weeks, it is interesting to consider what effect this would have had on the election in May if such an agreement had been discussed between Ieuan and Rhodri and, more importantly, the voters had known that Plaid could prop up Labour, despite their claims at the time that this would never happen.
In North Wales, the Vale of Clwyd would certainly have fallen to the Conservatives and possibly Aberconwy too. The swell in the Conservative vote would have meant Brynle would have kept his seat for the Conservatives or that Delyn would have gone blue (giving four in North Wales) but it would also have meant Dafydd Wigley gaining a seat for Plaid in the Assembly.
There would have been little change in Mid and West Wales although Ceredigion could have been tighter for Plaid, especially if the farming vote felt that Labour were going to be retained in power. Elsewhere in Wales, I believe the seats would have gone the same, except that the Vale of Glamorgan would have fallen to the Conservatives (but they would have lost the extra list seat in South Wales Central).
However, it is in the Valleys where there could have been a major difference, and I believe the anti-Labour vote would have swung away from Plaid and behind both independent candidates in Islwyn and Caerphilly, with Plaid voters casting their vote tactically.
Labour would therefore be three seats down on 23, Plaid on 15 and the Conservatives on 13, independents on 3 and Lib Dems remaining the same on 6. Therefore, the potential red-green coalition would still have a majority but the internal influence within the parties may have changed. The internal opposition to Plaid joining with Labour would be less but the independents would have finally have started to break down Plaid's role as the main opposition in the South Wales Valleys, thus beginning to reduce the influence of that wing of the party.
Effectively, the choice would still be the same for Plaid Cymru - prop up Labour or go into coalition with the rainbow partners, which would now include the independents. However, the critical factor is that Dafydd Wigley would be there in the mix and that, more than anything else, would have changed the dynamics of any deals.
How he would have jumped is only known to him but I am sure we would not have had the prevarications of the last few weeks from Wigley - a man who, regardless of your politics or opinion of the man, has the ability, personal belief and political clout to be First Minister.
Would he have grasped the opportunities offered by the rainbow or would he have wrung more concessions as a minority partner in a Labour-led coalition Government?
Whatever the case, at least a decision would have been made by now.
With Plaid Cymru trumpeting their narrow loss in 2003 to Denise Idris Jones in Conwy as the reason for them being the only party who could beat the Labour Party in the constituency, we decided to run an advert in the local paper saying that the Conservatives were in second place to Labour in the last general election, were the only rational choice against Labour and that Plaid would prop up the government if elected.
The reaction from the Party of Wales was immediate, with senior Plaid officials phoning our party HQ in Cardiff accusing us of lies and demanding a public apology and retraction which, of course, we refused to do.
Unfortunately, we ran this campaign only two weeks before the election and should have focused on this issue earlier and harder.
There we go - lessons to be learnt for future battles, especially as the two main parties vying for the anti-Labour vote saw their vote increase in the constituency, albeit with Plaid Cymru winning the seat much to my disappointment.
With many commentators now stating that the red-green coalition will become the Welsh Government in the next couple weeks, it is interesting to consider what effect this would have had on the election in May if such an agreement had been discussed between Ieuan and Rhodri and, more importantly, the voters had known that Plaid could prop up Labour, despite their claims at the time that this would never happen.
In North Wales, the Vale of Clwyd would certainly have fallen to the Conservatives and possibly Aberconwy too. The swell in the Conservative vote would have meant Brynle would have kept his seat for the Conservatives or that Delyn would have gone blue (giving four in North Wales) but it would also have meant Dafydd Wigley gaining a seat for Plaid in the Assembly.
There would have been little change in Mid and West Wales although Ceredigion could have been tighter for Plaid, especially if the farming vote felt that Labour were going to be retained in power. Elsewhere in Wales, I believe the seats would have gone the same, except that the Vale of Glamorgan would have fallen to the Conservatives (but they would have lost the extra list seat in South Wales Central).
However, it is in the Valleys where there could have been a major difference, and I believe the anti-Labour vote would have swung away from Plaid and behind both independent candidates in Islwyn and Caerphilly, with Plaid voters casting their vote tactically.
Labour would therefore be three seats down on 23, Plaid on 15 and the Conservatives on 13, independents on 3 and Lib Dems remaining the same on 6. Therefore, the potential red-green coalition would still have a majority but the internal influence within the parties may have changed. The internal opposition to Plaid joining with Labour would be less but the independents would have finally have started to break down Plaid's role as the main opposition in the South Wales Valleys, thus beginning to reduce the influence of that wing of the party.
Effectively, the choice would still be the same for Plaid Cymru - prop up Labour or go into coalition with the rainbow partners, which would now include the independents. However, the critical factor is that Dafydd Wigley would be there in the mix and that, more than anything else, would have changed the dynamics of any deals.
How he would have jumped is only known to him but I am sure we would not have had the prevarications of the last few weeks from Wigley - a man who, regardless of your politics or opinion of the man, has the ability, personal belief and political clout to be First Minister.
Would he have grasped the opportunities offered by the rainbow or would he have wrung more concessions as a minority partner in a Labour-led coalition Government?
Whatever the case, at least a decision would have been made by now.
Comments
A very interesting set of thoughts I must say and, on the whole, very convincing.
I think however there's a case of arguing the contrary regarding Islwyn and Caerphilly. Had Red/Green been seriously on the cards prior to the election, then perhaps many who voted 'independent' would have voted Plaid in order to keep Labour 'in check'.
In any case it will be very interesting to see how Red/Green (if it happens!) will affect the 'disaffected' in the south east.
As they say, an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today....