PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

Last week, some business organisations predicted that the economic downturn was ending and that the UK economy was set to recover by 2010, although the majority of economists remain convinced that unemployment will continue to rise beyond three million by the end of this year. During this doom and gloom, casual reading of the latest jobless statistics would suggest that Wales has bucked the trend. Last month, the latest data showed that, in contrast to the rest of the UK, unemployment actually fell in Wales for the period April-June 2009. Naturally, this was instantly seized on by some politicians as evidence that the economic policies pursued by the Assembly Government were paying dividends as compared to the rest of the UK. However, if we examine the statistics in detail , there may be a very different story emerging. Let’s take, for example, the case of unemployment, which is officially defined as “those without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and...

The latest poll, this time in the Observer , shows that the Conservatives are maintaining a healthy lead over Labour. Ironically, whilst an increasing number of people believe that the UK is merging from recession, this is not benefiting the incumbent at No 10, who is getting blamed for getting us into the mess in the first place. This mirrors the 1997 election when John major's Government , despite improvements in the UK's economic fortunes, lost heavily. So what would such a poll mean for Wales if a general election was held immediately? As it is the silly season for another week, I put the latest poll through Martin Baxter's electoral calculus . The results were: Conservatives 16 seats (+13) Labour 16 seats (-13) Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+2) Liberal Democrats 2 seats (-2) Independent 1 seat (no change) That would be a seismic shift in the politics of Wales with even safe Labour seats such as Newport East changing hands. Whether that will happen depends, of course, on ...

The Daily Mirror has just published a story which alleges that Tony Blair did a deal with Libya that allowed for the return of the Lockerbie bomber in exchange for trade and oil. It would seem that despite attempts by the UK Government to say little on the affair, this is whole issue is going to run and run and that it may be the final straw that breaks this Government. As a Times article indicates, there remain a number of unanswered questions including : What were the precise terms of the agreement that Britain reached with the US and Libya in 1999 that those convicted of the Lockerbie bombing would serve out their sentences in Scotland? Just what did Tony Blair say to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi when they met in 2004 and again, in the Libyan leader’s tent, in 2007? Exactly what was going on inside the heads of British and Scottish government ministers during the fraught negotiations in recent months over the fate of Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi? To those I would add the following: Did G...

The latest population estimates for Wales have just been released by the Welsh Assembly Government. The min headline from the data is that the number of people living in wales continues to grow Wales - in June 2008, there were 2,993,400 people resident in Wales. This is an increase of 13,500 on mid-2007. Given this increase, it is likely that we have already passed the 3 million mark for the population of Wales, although this won't be confirmed officially until next year Interestingly, there was little change in the broad age structure of the population compared to 2007, although Wales continues to have more retired people than the average for the UK - 21.4 per cent are of retirement age (639,400 people) in Wales as compared to 19.2 per cent for the UK. Given that I have been invited to discuss the Barnett formula with the Holtham review next month, it will interesting to find out whether such considerations are made in the allocation of any funding for social services and health ...

If the UK Government is lending Airbus £340 million through a repayable loan , why on earth did the Welsh Assembly Government have to give out £28 million in a cash grant as well? Surely, the £28 million - which represents around 10 per cent of WAG's total business support fund - could easily have been added to the loan amount given out by Lord Mandelson's department? This money could then have been used to support other businesses directly or given to an organisation such as Finance Wales to ensure that loans are made available to Welsh SMEs at a time when they need it the most.

Last Thursday saw celebrations in schools and colleges up and down the country as 98 per cent of students in Wales passed their A-levels, with a quarter being awarded the highest grade . However, many of those who just failed to get the grades they require may face disappointment over the next few days with 135,000 students fighting for 22,000 spare places through the clearing system. In Wales, Aberystwyth University has already closed its doors to new students and a number of others are likely to follow over the next few days. Of course, such competition could not come at a worse time for those who do not have the required grades. The recession has meant that there are very few jobs available, even for those who have qualified from higher education. For example, BT – normally a major employer for university leavers – yesterday suspended its graduate recruitment activity and is no longer running a graduate recruitment programme . Many other large companies are set to follow this lead a...

Whilst clearing out some old files from the computer this afternoon, I came across this article from the Times Higher Education Supplement , which reported on the first major project which I managed - a £500,000 European Commission sponsored study into links between universities and industry . It was a very proud moment for me personally and professionally, as only eight per cent of well over a thousand research proposals from all across Europe were actually funded. Apart from making me feel very old and wondering where the last eleven years had gone, I still feel that entrepreneurship and links with industry are still not as valued by universities as research and teaching. Until they are, our academic sector will continue to underperform in terms of its potential contribution to the economic vitality of this country. 'Enterprise must be valued and fostered' THES, 13 November 1998 University enterprise is being stifled by more teaching duties, growing administrative tasks and ...

Iain Dale’s annual listing of Welsh blogs is welcome in that it shows where there is political activity on the blogosphere and by which party. Whilst Conservative blogs seem to do well across the UK, the same cannot be said of Wales. Congrats to Cardiff Blogger , the top-rated “Conservative” blog in Wales. I hate to admit that I haven’t been a regular visitor to this site but it will go on the blogroll later this week. However, apart from the usual suspects such as David Jones, Glyn Davies and yours truly, there was no other Conservative presence in the top 30. Perhaps I should have voted! More seriously, such a weak presence is unacceptable, especially as little seems to have changed since last year, when I commented that the Welsh Conservative Party really has to do more regarding its presence on the Welsh blogosphere , although this evidence from Mr Dale shows that the call has fallen on stony ground, especially amongst the vast majority of the three MPs, twelve Assembly Members an...

Last month, the Welsh Liberal Democrats accused the Assembly Government of a ‘culture of shocking spending excess’ when a Freedom of Information request showed that credit card bills totaling more than £700,000 were run up by officials of International Business Wales (IBW), the Assembly’s overseas investment arm whose role is to attract business into Wales as well as increasing the country’s exports and promoting Welsh business abroad. This shows a complete lack of understanding by politicians over the costs of working overseas, as these businesspeople have clearly suggested in the Western Mail last week. In possibly the worst environment for getting inward investment projects into Wales, IBW is punching well above its weight. This is at a time when we are facing the worst recession since the Second World War. In particular, the team based in North America is doing a fantastic job in promoting Wales in the run up to the Ryder Cup in 2010. Only recently, IBW arranged the largest ever tr...

Just over a week ago, I wrote about some of the financial problems that Welsh Universities could be facing in the current economic climate. When I put pen to paper, little did I know that the Times Higher Education was about to publish a stark warning that "institutions could be facing financial ruin unles they make radical changes to the way they work". In an article headed " Storm warning:change now or perish institutions told ", the academics' trade journal warned that there may be up to 30 institutions facing a deficit this year and that a number could close. The question that the Welsh Press and Welsh politicians have yet to ask, of course, is whether any Welsh universities are in such a precarious financial position and, more importantly, what effect this could have on the delivery of higher education in Wales?

Last week, I wrote about the importance of higher education to the Welsh economy. However, it must be remembered that the main providers of post 16 education in Wales are not universities, but further education colleges. Currently, twenty five further education colleges and institutions offer 80 per cent of all post-16 qualifications in Wales, with nearly 300,000 learners undertaking courses every year. Unlike universities, the majority of learners in further education are studying part-time, with many also working within businesses whilst studying for a qualification. More importantly, the quality of learning within Welsh Further Education colleges is consistently shown to be far higher than that for colleges in England, giving Wales a real advantage in the provision of skills and learning to the business community. Given the vital role of the further education sector in ensuring that the economy continues to develop the skills necessary to take it out of recession, it is disappointin...

As the old saying goes, information is power, and as the world becomes a smaller place with the advent of the internet age, those with access to that information are in pole position for a better life. This view is clearly supported by Welsh MPs who recently concluded that access to super fast broadband technology in Wales would be a key factor in the future economic growth of the nation. In particular, the report from the Welsh Affairs Select Committee highlighted the problem of areas with limited or no access to high-speed internet connections. Of course, the economy of North Wales has recently been given a boost in this direction by the announcement of the £30 million fibre network across a dozen or so business parks , although the real test of its success is whether it can branch out from the main 200 mile route along the A55 into the more rural areas of Wales. It is not only infrastructure which is important in bridging the so-called ‘digital divide’. Dr Hywel Francis, Chairman of...

Having, for once, avoided any contact with academia during my fortnight’s holiday in Portugal, I seem to have returned to a situation where the UK university sector could be on the brink of turmoil. For example, one particular story in the Times Higher Education – the academics’ trade journal - indicated that university Vice Chancellors in England were ‘thinking the unthinkable’ and modelling 20 per cent budget reductions for the next financial year given the likely cuts in public sector expenditure after the 2010 general election. Given that the sector in England receives around £8 billion every year, this would amount to an eye watering reduction of around £1.6 billion which would decimate the sector at a time when it is needed the most to help the economy recover from recession. Of course, this may just be scaremongering by the heads of some academic institutions, although one vice chancellor was quoted as stating that they are building in reductions ranging from a minimum of five ...

Hat to tip to David Jones . The US Library of Congress has just released a photostream of images of Wales from the late 19th and early 20th century - the slideshow of the images has been embedded in the blog above. The images demonstrate perfectly the historical legacy, the natural beauty and the industrial heritage of Wales - just look at those showing the ships on the quay at Caernarfon. That remains an amazing image of the importance of the town during the late 19th century. These photos brought back some poignant memories as one of my collector's fads when I was younger and had more time was collecting postcards of Wales from the same period. I have hundreds of these cards stored somewhere in the attic back in Pwllheli - it may be time to get them out again.

According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research , those regions with high level of public expenditure as share of GDP may be de-coupled from economic recovery as the government has to rebalance its books. In their latest analysis - which was largely ignored by the Welsh press - the economic consultancy group predicted that whilst the Welsh economy may be partially cushioned this year because of its high dependency on the public sector, the medium term prospects are somewhat different. With forecasted cuts of £80 billion to ensure that the UK’s public sector finances are balanced, those regions that are most reliant on public spending which will suffer the most. According to the CEBR, two thirds of our national prosperity is dependent on the public sector. Whilst regions such as London will grow by 1.1 per cent during 2010-2013, Wales is forecasted to grow by only 0.7 per cent over the same period. Perhaps more telling is CEBR’s advice that only a concerted effort to promote...

According to the Sunday Times , sixty MPs received up to £12,000 each over four years in “no questions asked” petty cash payments from the House of Commons authorities without without having to submit a single receipt. Two Welsh MPs are prominently feautured in this list, namely Labour's Wayne David - who claimed £12,000 over the period 2004-2008 and Hywel Williams of Plaid Cymru - who claimed £10,150 over the same period. According to the current speaker, John Bercow , "The money was solely for the provision of tea, coffees, soft drinks and so on within the Palace of Westminster for individuals or groups who came to petition me on some aspect of public policy". Given that the MPs have access to highly subsidised canteen facilities at the House of Commons, then the fact that these two Welsh MPs have spent over £2500 each on teas and coffees seem strange in the extreme. Given that the House of Commons only sits for around 30 weeks a year, that amounts to a weekly tea bill ...

Having spent the last two weeks in sun-drenched Portugal sitting on the beach reading and relaxing, I haven’t been anywhere near the blogosphere or, for that matter, Welsh news. Of course, I then had to leave my phone on last Wednesday whilst sitting by the pool and received a call from the highly talented David Williamson of the Western Mail, who wanted me to comment on a story they were running on an IWA article by Brian Morgan calling for the resurrection of the WDA. My comments from David’s interview can be read here . To be honest, I wasn’t surprised by the story itself, only that it has taken so long for this call to be made. Ironically, my column for yesterday’s Western Mail was on the same subject but was written two and a half weeks ago before I went away on holiday. My view is pretty clear about this and is similar to that made by Dafydd Wigley, namely that we need to thoroughly investigate whether the current merger of the WDA into the Department for Economy and Transport ha...