PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

"Here be Dragons" is a fascinating article in the Economist comparing the current fortunes of the Conservative Party in Wales with the situation in Scotland. The fact that the bible of the finance world has bothered to examine the current political situation in Wales makes it worthwhile. However,it is pertinent, with all the navel gazing that goes on within Wales on politics, to have an outsider's views on the reasons as to why the Welsh political landscape is changing: "The first is that although the Welsh language flourishes (arguably because Welsh-medium schools offer a way for richer parents to enjoy academic selection), the region remains close to England, sharing, for example, the English press. (The Scots have their own newspapers.) And plenty of English newcomers are learning Welsh, drawn by those same good schools. Migration matters too: hordes of English folk, greying and otherwise, have crossed the Severn Bridge, passing Welsh youngsters heading the othe...

Tonight, we have the third of the Prime Ministerial debates, events which until yesterday’s incident in Rochdale, had defined this election Unfortunately, I will be acting as compere at the Young Enterprise awards at Venue Cymru in Llandudno and will miss the live broadcast. Earlier this week, the Institute of Fiscal Studies have pointed out, quite clearly, the reality facing all three political parties regarding the ballooning public sector deficit, which is expected to reach £1.4 trillion by 2015. Indeed, given that some of us have already pointed out some of the harsh decisions that may need to be made by the next government, whether it likes it or not, and it may be time for senior politicians to do the same. It is expected that Gordon Brown will try and focus on his record of bringing the UK through the recession but the reality is that we are in a worst position than we could have been because of the way he squandered, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a golden legacy left behind b...

I have, frankly, been too busy over the last few days with various projects to even contemplate writing anything on the election. With just over a week to go until we elect a new government, I was interested in examining what others outside the Welsh blogosphere had to say about the state of the campaigns and, more importantly, their impression of Welsh life and politics. Here, in my opinion, are five recent entries worth reading: Denis Campbell , writing on the Huffington Post, gives his views to the US on the election race in the Vale of Glamorgan The Guardian examines where the party leaders have been visiting constituencies and concludes that “figures place Labour in particular trouble in the north-east and Wales and neither region has seen much of the prime minister so far”. Daniel Hannan discusses the issue of as “we have Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies and a Scottish Parliament, ought there to be an English legislature, too?” The Wall Street Journal’s picture of the day c...

Earlier this week, the UK Competitiveness Index , compiled by academics at UWIC, suggested that Wales was the 'least competitive' of any of the regions in the United Kingdom. Rather than welcoming the report as a useful contribution to the debate on the state of the Welsh economy, the response from the Welsh Assembly Government’s spokesman was predictable , dismissing it as “incomplete’ and suggesting that other indicators, such as overall increases in employment and household income per head since devolution suggested a more “positive picture”. Sadly, such comments only reinforce the picture of a bunker mentality within certain corridors of power in Wales. Worst of all, if there was ever any indication as to why the much-vaunted Economic Renewal Programme may fail to achieve its targets, this was it. Yet again, the response demonstrates that some of those charged with running the Welsh Assembly Government simply do not understand the dire state of our economy in key areas such...

Thoroughly enjoyed the leaders' debate last night. Not spectacular but at least some of the real policy differences are beginning to emerge so that voters can make a choice on the manifestos rather than on who spoke the best on the evening. One small point, which the press seems to be conveniently ignoring. During the last two debates, Nick Clegg has, probably with every utterance, talked about Labour and the Conservatives as the two 'old parties'. Why then, last year, did he deliver the 150th Anniversary speech of the First Parliamentary Liberal Party Caucus at the National Liberal Club in London . As he said at the time, "It’s a pleasure to be here to celebrate our 150th birthday. In the summer of 1859 the Liberal Party was born. Whigs, Peelites and Radicals met over at St James Street and agreed to overthrow the then Conservative Government. It’s been a rich and rocky 150 years since then..." Why then does Mr Clegg continuously deny his party's history duri...

No, not that one - the election is still a fortnight away. I am talking about Llandaff RFC Under 11s who won the Cleve Tournament in Bristol last Sunday. The team played their hearts out and I was proud to be one of the many parents who were there all day to cheer the team and to see them win in style. Now onto Neyland this weekend for another tournament and, crossed fingers, another win. p.s. My son Harri is the scrumcapped player two from the left in the front row.

Yesterday, it would seem that Welsh Assembly Government officials responsible for the Communities First programme were not too happy about the conclusions of a report from the Public Accounts Committee that found that the regeneration scheme had not demonstrated value for money. In a rare fit of pique, officials described the report as “unbalanced and partial”. Given this, perhaps the same officials who “reacted angrily” could answer a few simple questions. Why, despite spending £214 million of WAG money on the Communities First programme, has West Wales and the Valleys (where the vast majority of the Communities First areas are to be found) continued to decrease in relative prosperity? Why will West Wales and the Valleys, in all probability, be the only UK region to qualify again for a third round of European funding despite spending billions of pounds of Structural Funding through the Objective 1 and Convergence fund projects? Why have the three other non-devolved areas, alongside ...

A key political innovation developed by the current UK Government was the appointment of ‘outsiders’ to ministerial positions within the Cabinet. The first of these external recruits to a “Government of all the talents” was Lord Digby Jones, the former head of the CBI who joined as Minister for Trade and Investment back in June 2007. Just over a year and a half later, he resigned from the position, and later described his period as minister as "one of the most dehumanising and depersonalising experiences" anyone could have. His replacement in the post seems to have fitted in far better, despite having spent his entire career in the high octane world of banking and finance. Lord Mervyn Davies has been a breath of fresh air in the efforts to develop a coherent approach to UK trade and investment. A son of Abersoch, he served as chairman of the Standard Chartered Bank for three years prior to joining the government, which was preceded by five years as the company’s chief executi...

The front page story in today's South Wales Echo was about the veteran broadcaster John Humphreys and his condemnation of binge-drinking culture after spending a night on patrol with police. This story isn't a shock to anyone from Cardiff. The real surprise is that this story has not hit the headlines before today. Indeed, anyone who is from the city and is over the age of 30 won't go anywhere near the bottom of St Mary's Street on a Friday or Saturday night. The question, of course, is whether such an image actually harms Wales or are we managing to keep this sordid secret to ourselves? No such luck I am afraid. Only last week, the Wall Street Journal, of all papers, ran a story about the UK's drinking culture and focused on Cardiff. As the article notes, "Such raucous partying routinely turns the weekend streetscape here in the capital of Wales into a scene from "Night of the Living Dead." Drunken young men and women stumble through streets fouled...

Yesterday, I noted that Peter Hain and Welsh Labour had merely plucked their figure of 50,000 new jobs for Wales jobs out of the air , or rather, by merely "barnetising" the promise to create 1 million UK jobs within their British manifesto. No evidence was provided at all as to how they would create the jobs apart from some woolly statement about "high technology jobs". This is par for the course for Peter Hain, but I am surprised at the First Minister, who seems to have conveniently forgotten that much of the responsibility for supporting industry is devolved and is actually under the watchful eye of the Plaid Cymru Economic Development Minister. I wonder what Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to say about such jobs targets being imposed unilaterally? Today, Welsh Labour launched their manifesto which you would expect would contain full details of how they were going to create these 50,000 jobs. Yet, if you read the document carefully, that particular statistic is now...

One of the most important things we can do in Wales is to give our young people the opportunity to succeed. That is why t he Global Academy at the University of Wales has set up a new initiative in partnership with Cardiff Business Club . The University of Wales travelling innovation scholarship will enable a graduate of the University of Wales to visit MIT (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) to meet leading world experts and learn how they can develop their entrepreneurial ideas into world class products or services back here in Wales. MIT’s entrepreneurship programmes are amongst the best in the world, resulting in 25,800 active companies that have been founded by MIT alumni. These currently employ about 3.3 million people and generate annual world sales of £1.5 trillion, producing the equivalent of the 11th-largest economy in the world. The aim of the scheme is to enlighten and nurture Welsh graduates with the necessary skills and knowledge so that they are better equipped...

Earlier today, the results of the Student Politics 2010 survey were released . This was based on interviews with 13,961 final years studying at 30 leading universities in the UK, and was carried out in March 2010. It showed some quite remarkable results and demonstrates how the student population’s political views have changed quite dramatically since the protest marches of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. For example, 30 per cent of students surveyed plan to vote Conservative in the election, compared with 21 per cent for Labour, 19 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 6 per cent for the Green Party and 6 per cent for other parties including the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru. Almost one in five students remain undecided about whom to vote for and with 1.5 million students with the vote, this remains a constituency that could make a real difference in some seats. If you examine the table below and compare it with the UK Polling Reports Target Seats for the Conservatives , you find th...

Yesterday, we saw the launch of the Welsh Labour manifesto in which the Secretary of State for Wales stated that "In Wales we will back business to create up to 50,000 new jobs. We will encourage our economy to grow through advanced technology, exports and business investment ". Of course, such soundbites are the bread and butter of Peter Hain's political career, soundbites that go unquestioned by the mainstream press. As usual, there was no real detail provided as to how these jobs are to be created or, more importantly, which part of the air this figure was plucked from. However, when I read that, at the same launch, the First Minister had praised Labour's UK manifesto as "pro-business, pro-enterprise and pro-industry manifesto", the answer became obvious. So I went back to the UK Labour manifesto to try and find where exactly Peter Hain got his figures from. Lo and behold, on page 1:3, Labour promises to: "build a high-tech economy, supporting busin...

With a full time job, it is only possible to blog either first thing in the morning or when I get home from work. Given the nine hours in-between, I am always fascinated by what the Welsh commentariat have been up to during the day. In particular, it is worth examining what the mainstream press have, or have not, missed out from their headlines. Perhaps the most obvious omission is the PoliticsHome/YouGov regional voting intention data from almost 10,000 interviews. It shows that, in Wales, Labour support has fallen five points since the 2005 election and the Liberal Democrats by four points. Plaid Cymru has increased by one percentage point. In contrast, the Conservative vote has gone up by a full nine points and, given the overwhelming dominance of Labour at the last general election, this should give Conservative supporters the impetus to go for the final push for votes during the next three weeks. The second piece of news, which seems to have been missed in the overall launch of t...

At yesterday's unveiling of the Labour Party manifesto, the Prime Minister repeatedly declined to give a promise not to raise VAT if they win the general election. The Labour manifesto does contain a clear promise not to increase the rate of income tax for basic or higher-rate earners. So what does that really mean? As Labour seems unwilling or unable to admit to deeper cuts in public expenditure, then the only conclusion is that it will raise tax by other means. Some possible tax rises include: a continued freezing of income tax bands, so that hundreds of thousands more people will be dragged into paying higher taxes an increase VAT from 17.5 per cent during the next Parliament. a commitment to setting up a commission on funding social care raised the prospect of a "death tax" on people's estates. a plan to review the whole system of local government finances could pave the way for a local income tax to replace the council tax. further increases in National Insurance...

According to the current Secretary of State for Wales , Labour's manifesto plans to: "unleash a wave of thousands and thousands of jobs in Wales, encouraging businesses and entrepreneurs to get help to start new enterprises that can make the most of the global move to low carbon.” Sounds great but if you look at Labour's record during the last thirteen years, it doesn't exactly stack up. Indeed, Mr Hain should explain how exactly he is going to create these jobs, given the dismal economic record of his government in Wales. For example, Wales has 133,000 adults out of work - the highest unemployment rate out of all the UK nations with one in four adults in Wales being economically inactive The business sector has been hit hard during the recession, with a fall in employment of 45,000 private sector jobs in Wales during the recession. In contrast, public sector employment has increased by 8,000 workers Since 1997, Wales has experienced the lowest increase in average fu...

Naturally, the main focus of the press and the voters over the last week has been on domestic matters during the first shots of the general election campaign. However, it is events that are taking place fifteen hundred miles away which indicate some of the future problems that may well face this country after the election. If reports are to be believed, Greece will finally getting bailed out by the EU and the IMF next week amid rumours that the country can no longer fund itself following an exodus of capital and crippling interest rates . On Friday, the credit agency Fitch also downgraded Greek debt to BBB- , just one notch above junk grade. Indeed, an increasing number of economists are warning that the EU/IMF rescue package may only delay the inevitable default by Greece which could lead to economic ruin. Of course, the UK Government remains in denial about the scale of cuts needed to pacify the markets. This despite the fact that the public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage...

In the various speeches that the First Minister has given to Welsh business since assuming his role last December, he has argued that Wales does not have a large public sector. Instead, he has tried to make the case that the size of the ‘public sector’ is about right and, instead, we have to grow the private sector in Wales. Such a position has led to a discussion whereas some, mainly in the trade union movement, have claimed that any reduction in the public sector should be minimised and that, instead, there should be tax increases across the board for individuals and businesses. In contrast, the private sector has suggested that, given the savage beating that businesses have taken during the recession, it should be the over-manned public sector that should be target of government cuts i.e. it is not the private sector that is too small but the public sector that is too big. The depth of feeling amongst company chiefs that it is time that the public sector shared the pain of the downt...

Having taken Easter off, I suddenly emerged from the bank holiday to find that the Western Mail had headlined last Monday’s edition with a press release from the Labour Party criticising my view of an Institute of Directors (IOD) report which examined different ways in which the government could potentially save £50 billion. Unfortunately, no-one from the paper bothered to contact me about the article for a right of reply which, given the fast changing nature of election journalism, isn’t too surprising. However, it was disappointing that I didn’t get the opportunity to set the record straight and respond directly to the charges from Peter Hain, so I might as well as do it here. In various press releases, the Secretary of State for Wales has suggested that the IOD document, published over seven months ago, constitute current Conservative Party policy. As the late Alan Clark would have said, that is being "economical with the actualite". It should be noted that the report was ...

All day, we have had the political parties claiming and counterclaiming on what they will do for the UK economy? For Mr and Mrs Joe Average, the issue of national insurance as a percentage of government expenditure may not be something which they fully comprehend. However, they do understand the price of petrol and today we saw the average price of unleaded petrol hit a new high of 119.9p a litre, mainly due to the weakness of the pound which makes the import of fuel more expensive. As a result, the cost of filling a 50-litre tank with petrol has risen from £42.95 in Jan 2009 (when prices were at their lowest) to £59.70, an increase of £16.74. Will they blame the oil companies or the current Government? More relevantly, how will the various political parties try to make capital out of something that affects millions of individuals and businesses across the country. Indeed, it is sometimes the simplest of things that can change the entire mood of the electorate during a General Electio...

Yesterday, Peter Hain visited a business in Cardiff North which had been recently helped by the loan guarantee scheme which, according to the BBC , Mr Hain said "had offered a lifeline to such businesses". He went on to say that: "When he accessed the funding - right at the start of credit crunch - it helped the business with the sort of typical cashflow problems we saw many SMEs (small and medium sized enterprises) face at the time. It enabled his business to keep afloat at difficult time and to keep his employees in good quality, paid employment". Of course it did. That is why the small business Loan Guarantee Scheme he was praising was introduced by Margaret Thatcher's first government back in 1981 in response to long-standing concern about the problems encountered by small businesses in raising external finance.

Last week, the Western Mail reported on a fascinating interview with the former First Minister, Rhodri Morgan , in which he argued that Europe must discover how so many successful technology companies take root in the United States and learn from the conditions in the US that have allowed companies such as Amazon and Google to be created and thrive. He then went on to suggest that West Wales and the Valleys would qualify for a new round of European funding, bringing billions more into the economy to help close the prosperity gap with the rest of the UK. Given the points raised by Mr Morgan, it is worth examining how Wales has actually spent the first round of European Structural funds, known as Objective 1, to encourage and develop innovation within our poorest regions between 2000 and 2006. One of the key aims of the Objective 1 programme was to improve the competitiveness of the region through the acquisition and use of knowledge and new technologies. This was to be done in a variety...

There is an interesting article on the Wales Home website by Paul O Shea , the head of Unison, about public sector cuts. It is essentially the speech which he gave to Bevan Foundation recently in a panel debate in which I also participated. One clearly can't fault Paul for taking the stance that he has on this subject, but I must take him to task over two main points which he makes in his speech. First of all, Paul states that “public services and public service workers are already on the frontline of recession” . According to the most recent employment statistics , private sector employment has fallen by more than 4 per cent since the beginning of 2008, while the public sector has expanded by almost 6 per cent. Over the past year, some 46,000 jobs were created by the state whilst 527,000 jobs were lost in the private sector. Therefore, there is little evidence to show that the public sector has suffered during the worst recession since the 1920s. By all means let’s have a debate o...

Earlier today, Lord Mandelson thought that he would get away with his usual attacks on George Osborne after 23 leaders of some of the UK's largest companies wrote a letter in favour of the Conservative Party's plans to halt the planned increase in national insurance. However, in stating that these vastly experienced businessmen had been the victims of "cynical deception" by the Conservatives, he has not only seen an instant rebuttal by some of the signatories but has now managed to get the British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and five other organisations to back the Conservative policy on National Insurance. So whose word would you trust? The bosses of some of the top companies in the UK, including Kingfisher, Sainsbury's, GlaxoSmithKline, Mothercare, the Virgin Group, Marks and Spencer, Diageo, Harvey Nichols, Next and the easyGroup, or a politician who has already been thrown out of the Cabinet twice for personal and financial irregularities? Of course, if Lor...