£1,400,000,000,000

Tonight, we have the third of the Prime Ministerial debates, events which until yesterday’s incident in Rochdale, had defined this election

Unfortunately, I will be acting as compere at the Young Enterprise awards at Venue Cymru in Llandudno and will miss the live broadcast.

Earlier this week, the Institute of Fiscal Studies have pointed out, quite clearly, the reality facing all three political parties regarding the ballooning public sector deficit, which is expected to reach £1.4 trillion by 2015.

Indeed, given that some of us have already pointed out some of the harsh decisions that may need to be made by the next government, whether it likes it or not, and it may be time for senior politicians to do the same.

It is expected that Gordon Brown will try and focus on his record of bringing the UK through the recession but the reality is that we are in a worst position than we could have been because of the way he squandered, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a golden legacy left behind by Ken Clarke in 1997.

Indeed, he managed to go from a position of a £17 billion surplus in 2000 to end up, even before the recession was underway, with a deficit of £61 billion in 2008.

One of the more interesting issues raised by the Institute of Fiscal Studies yesterday was the failure by Brown to deal with a worsening state of public sector productivity and the massive rise in public sector wages over this time.

Indeed, as the IFS notes:

"If the Government had managed to maintain the 'bang for each buck' at the level it inherited in 1997, it would have been able to deliver the quantity and quality of the public services it delivered in 2007 for £42.5 billion less”.

In other words, the IFS believes that the UK’s current deficit problems would have been far less if Labour had focused on delivering best value to the taxpayer rtaher than going on a spending splurge that would have put a lottery or pools winner to shame.

That is damning indictment of this Prime Minister’s economic policies and demonstrates that the problems did not start with the recession but nearly a decade ago.

The only real hope for the economy now is through ensuring the private sector grows, not only to generate vital tax income for the Treasury but to absorb the inevitable unemployment from the public sector.

That is why the proposed increase by Labour in National Insurance cost is such a threat to the economy, especially for the 4.8 million small businesses in the UK.

Indeed, whereas ten of thousands of jobs were lost in the public sector after the 1991 recession, this was quickly overtaken by a massive growth in private sector employment.

Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have focused on this issue and David Cameron now has the opportunity to make the case for a renaissance in the economic fortunes of this nation, driven by a vibrant private sector.

Hopefully, it will be an opportunity that he will grasp with both hands.