THE FINAL DAY, THE FINAL POLL FOR WALES

The YouGov poll for ITV Wales yesterday has topline figures of

LABOUR 35%
CONSERVATIVES 27%
LIBDEM 23%
PLAID CYMRU 10%

In 2005, the vote share was as follows;

LABOUR 43%
CONSERVATIVES 21%
LIBDEM 18%
PLAID CYMRU 13%

This works out as a swing of around 6-7% from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales, larger than what is currently being recorded in most UK polls.

If repeated at the general election on Thursday, then the Conservatives would gain four seats (Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) and Plaid Cymru would gain two (Ynys Mon and (nominally) Arfon). There is also a swing towards the Lib Dems, probably securing their current seats in Wales. Plaid Cymru will naturally be disappointed that their share of the vote looks set to drop at this election.

However, that assumes a uniform national swing and given that Labour's votes are largely concentrated in a number of seats across the South Wales Valleys, will that be the case?

For example, let's look at the percentage of people who voted for Labour in 12 key core constituencies in 2005.

Aberavon: 60.0%
Caerphilly: 56.6%
Cynon Valley: 64.1%
Islwyn: 63.8%
Merthyr: 60.5%
Neath: 52.6%
Ogmore: 60.4%
Pontypridd:52.8%
Rhondda:68.1%
Swansea East: 56.6%
Torfaen: 56.9%

Certainly, if Labour's vote is holding up at 2005 levels within these main constituencies where other parties are merely fielding paper candidates, will the same be true outside these areas where there has been considerable effort?

Indeed, if we assume that the swing away from Labour is around half of what it is for the rest of Wales in these core seats, then it is clear there is going to be larger swing in the rest of Wales of up to 10 per cent where there is real competition against Labour not only from the Conservatives, but also from the Liberal Democrats in constituencies such as Swansea West, Newport East and even Wrexham.

Could Plaid, despite their poor national showing, spring one of the surprises of the night in Llanelli?

At this late stage and with 24 hours to go, there is still all to play for.

Therefore, any predictions should be left to Mystic Meg!

However, if there is one thing that this election will probably demonstrate, it will be the end of the Uniform National Swing as an indicator of the electoral fortunes of political parties not only in Wales, but across the UK.