If you had just listened to the TV news or read most of the printed press during the last few days of the Conservative conference, you would have thought that the decision to cut child benefit for higher earners was possibly the single biggest political mistake since the poll tax and, as a result, the Conservative Party was in meltdown.
Yet, a poll for YouGov on Monday night found 83 per cent of voters back Chancellor George Osborne's announcement that child benefit will not be paid to parents to earn more than £44,000 a year from 2013. Another 86 per cent of respondents agreed with introducing a £500 a week limit to the benefits unemployed families can claim.
In addition, YouGov found that whilst 20 per cent felt that the Coalition Government were to blame for the cuts in public spending, 44 per cent were blaming the last Labour government. That seems to be a very different picture from those painted in political blogs and columns this week.
The other issue is whether the Government will actually go through with all of the cuts as planned. There are certainly doubts cast in the Financial Times today about such a move with officials telling the paper that the Treasury is working on plans to “reprofile” spending cuts next April, spreading the pain of deficit reduction more evenly over the next few years.
According to economics editor Chris Giles,
"The Treasury insisted there was absolutely no change in the government’s economic strategy of eliminating the current structural deficit within a parliament, which David Cameron reiterated in his speech to the Conservative party conference on Wednesday. But it would not confirm that the spending review on October 20 would maintain the £23bn spending cuts in 2011-12, rising to £83bn a year cuts by 2014-15.
This week it has already become clear that many of the cuts will be difficult to start in 2011-12. The withdrawal of child benefit from higher-rate taxpayers is set to be implemented only in 2013-14. The government cannot walk away from its existing defence contracts, such as the two new aircraft carriers, without penalties. The universal credit, to replace many existing benefits, will not start until late 2013 at the earliest. And plans to introduce higher tuition fees for students will not be ready until later in the parliament. There is no doubt that most of the £32bn of spending cuts and tax rises set for 2011-12 will still be implemented, but the fiscal consolidation might be delayed without undermining the government’s ambition to eliminate the current structural deficit before the next election, scheduled in 2015".
As a result, the expectations of deep cuts immediately may not be realised, which may change the political narrative completely. Therefore, despite observations from the commentariat that the Conservatives have already lost seats at the next Assembly elections before they even go to the polls, the reality is many of the so-called cuts will not take place before May 2011.
Add to that the poll findings that a significant number of the general public actually understand not only why we need reductions in public expenditure but who is to blame for the reckless policies that led to the country's disastrous financial position of a trillion pounds of public debt, then it presents a very different message.
The job for the Welsh Conservatives is clearly to keep hammering home that message until next May.
Comments
Justin King, chief executive of J Sainsbury, has said the forthcoming Comprehensive Spending Review will have little impact on consumers’ behaviour as shoppers have already altered their spending habits.
Mr King, who sits on the Government’s council of business advisers, said that shoppers changed their buying patterns two years ago when the banking crisis hit. Any cuts announced later this month by George Osborne, the Chancellor, will therefore have little or no effect on the consumer economy, Mr King said.
“The public spending cuts will only back up what consumers have dialled into already,” he said.
But the Wales Lab-PC coalition makes a strident virtue of the principle of universal benefits - bus fares, free prescriptions etc. Holding down university fees may be in the same category - namely, subsidies to the well-off. As the fiscal squeeze lands, are these really worth hanging on to? The evidence Dylan cites about reaction to child benefit withdrawal - hardly a marginal issue - suggests that paying benefits to the well-off may not be as popular as some might think - especially when times are getting harder.
Not sure where the Conservatives and Lib-Dems in Wales stand on all of this.
Like all the welfare reforms they should not be knee jerk.
Not all people on benefits are scroungers and not all scroungers are on benefit
Tax avoidance is just as toxic
Most of the problem is lack of jobs , people being made redundant and just no opportunity to get a job. Its back to invest not cut. Thats the best way out of this.
Osborne needed to be far more consultative in what he is proposing
Most would agree reform is needed, but not at the cost of vulnerable people.
pensions to public sector is another hot potato. The Hutton report is out to day and that should give some insight
The trouble is, when you nailed your flag to the mast and came out as a Conservative, you lost a certain amount of respect.
It's a shame as Wales needs people like yourself who contribute to the economic debate in Wales.
As Betsan doesn't allow comments on the blog, perhaps someone can ask her why the BBC has not reported the YouGov statistics you quote and the one you have left out - that 52 per cent of voters in Wales and the Midlands think the government is doing well in reducing the deficit as compared to 30 per cent of those who believe it is doing badly.
Confused!
New Labours greatest act of Machiavellian genius was their reform of the benefits system. They were changed from being a safety net to fall back on in times of dire straits to something that *everyone* claimed through WFTC, child benefit and tax credits generally. Everyone became a client of the state so everyone wanted the state protected - and who is going to protect the DSS? Well not those evil baby eating Tories, no it warmongering, id card carrying New Labour. Genius.
Dave and Gids will have their work cut out to change perceptions on this (judging my Mail and Telegraph anyway)