PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

Wide awake at 2am in Los Angeles with jetlag! Over here in California to meet with five universities, two consulates, seven potential investors and one of the most successful Welsh businessmen - all in three and a half days! At least it has given me the opportunity to read about the development of the US economy during the last hour or so before trying to get back to sleep. The contrast with the UK's recent growth is startling. Whilst people are hailing the revised 0.3 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the UK economy, the US economy grew at an incredible 5.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009. This was largely driven by manufacturing with consumer spending less than originally thought. The fourth-quarter figure compares with 2.2 per cent growth in GDP in 2009’s third quarter. For the 12 months of 2009, GDP fell 2.4 per cent, the biggest full-year decline since the 10.9 per cent recorded in 1946. Compare this to the UK's figures during 2009, which showed tha...

There has been some recent discussion on the question of whether Welsh businesses are getting a fair deal on business rates. To me, an issue as simple as business rates goes to the heart of the argument over the rationale for devolution and the ability for Wales to do things differently to England, Scotland or Northern Ireland. In fact, despite having the powers to create a far more business friendly rate system that would be relevant to Wales, all that the One-Wales Government has done since 2007 is meekly mimicked the actions of Westminster when it comes to non-domestic rates for businesses In the case of changes to rates to empty properties, the One-Wales Government replicated exactly the changes that took place in England. When the Treasury announced that it would bring forward regulations to allow ratepayers in England to opt to pay the increase of five per cent in business rates for 2009-10 over the following two years, what did WAG do? Exactly the same, of course. Why didn't...

As I was going to post on this issue this morning (having read the Welsh version in the Western Mail yesterday), I noticed that the excellent Druid of Anglesey blog has had the same idea. So Hat Tip to the Druid, regardless. The piece below by Ron Jones, the founder of Tinopolis, is refreshing, insightful, inspiring and cuts to the heart of much that is wrong with Wales. Whilst I don't agree with everything Ron says, I have never before read a piece by any businessperson in Wales that hits the nail on the head regarding the role of WAG in supporting the economy. If the Deputy First Minister had any sense, he would have a private meeting with Ron Jones, without his coterie of civil servants who follow him around like pilot fish, and go through each one of the points raised in this excellent article. However, I very much doubt that is very going to happen. Whilst Ieuan Wyn Jones asks for the truth about the economy, I am afraid the real problem is, like the memorable scene in the fi...

have just been sent this video. Interesting how the Far East views our PM.

The National Assembly's Public Accounts Committee has condemned a "chronic and long lasting failure" by the £214 million Communities First initiative and that it is failing to deliver value for money for our most deprived communities . This is hardly news to those of us who have been commenting on the deteriorating state of this programme for a number of years. As I said back in July 2007, "the programme has been accused of adopting a top down approach that has largely focused on the administration of the programme and becoming yet another bureaucratic jungle for individuals and communities to navigate through. Such organisational and operational problems have culminated in the scandalous position of £6 million of Communities First funds allocated to our poorest communities being returned unspent to the Assembly Government last year (2006)". One can only forlornly hope that WAG takes this report seriously and addresses the main concerns of Assembly Members so t...

A report in the Western Telegraph last week reported that the Minister for Economy and Transport had discussions with Chevron to try and avoid job losses at the refinery in Pembrokeshire. It follows high level dialogue with Bosch which, although too late to stop the closure of the plant and the loss of 900 jobs, may yet see other possibilities emerge for the plant at Miskin. That is great news and I hope that this now sets a pattern of more regular dialogue between WAG and key employers in Wales. However, some of us have been crying out for such high level talks to take place for quite some time: For example, back in October 2006, I wrote the following piece : "Many of the manufacturing companies which are major employers within Wales are based within the more deprived areas, and I very much hope that Assembly officials are in constant discussion with every single major manufacturer in Wales over their future plans, especially in the way that policymakers may be able to help the...

Following their decision to delay the revaluation business premises, Northern Ireland has again shown the way to Wales on how to use devolution to reduce business rates and support the economy. Whilst empty properties are liable to 100% liability in England and Wales for all commercial properties, including factories, the Northern Ireland Government has decided to keep the rating of empty commercial properties will remain frozen at 50%. The question, of course, is why WAG continues to simply copy England on the issue of business rates rather than develop their own policies on the matter. So much for devolution.

Having just come back to Pwllheli to spend a few days with my family, I picked up the Daily Post tonight to see the picture of the Secretary of State on the business pages with the promise that he would essentially be the saviour of the Anglesey economy. Every point I was going to make on this story has been made on the Druid's latest blog , so I won't repeat the best bits of this excellent posting. However, the people of Anglesey should be warned that Peter Hain has previous form on promising jobs in areas faced with redundancies and eventually delivering nothing. Back in March 2003, just before the second Assembly elections, KTH of Llanidloes was under threat of closure with 240 jobs in the balance. Who promised to come to the rescue by persuading Ford - KTH's main customer at the time - to take on more orders ? None other than the Secretary of State at the time, Peter Hain. Fast forward to the 12th May 2003 and one of the representatives of the group fighting to save th...

I am amazed that there has been total silence from Plaid Cymru and its supporters on the matter of the appointment of a new vice chancellor at Bangor University. As this blog pointed out on Monday, you would have normally expected comment after comment on the decision by the university that the next holder of this post will be a non-Welsh speaker, despite the fact that it should be an essential criteria given the unique position of the University. Yet apart from a bland statement from Cymdeithas y Iaith , there has not been one public utterance from the Party of Wales and its supporters on this issue. As one commentator noticed, is this because the party is embarrassed about the issue, given that the President of Bangor University is none other than Lord Elis Thomas; that the local Assembly Member is Alun Ffred Jones - the Minister responsible for the language - and that the Honorary President of Plaid Cymru, Dafydd Wigley, is Chairman of the Bangor Business School? Why hasn't Dafy...

The last few entries have focused on the university sector in Wales and for this I make no apology. Whilst the Welsh media has picked up on the odd story, it would seem that there is a quiet revolution going on within the sector, with hundreds of jobs under threat over the next few months. We have already seen 100 jobs under threat in Bangor and a further 100 at IBERS in Aberystwyth. Now, the news reaches me that three former colleagues at the University of Glamorgan Business School have been given a 90 day consultation with regard to their current positions. This can only mean that more than 100 employees at the University have been offered redundancy to trigger such a consultation. The fact that all three are professors within the Business School seems to be a worrying trend in that seems to be a targeting of senior staff for redundancy in an effort to save money. If that is the case, then it could hit the university's reputation badly, especially if the business school, after an...

With powers for the Welsh language about to be passed over to the National Assembly for Wales, it is ironic that Bangor University has announced that its new Vice Chancellor would not, unlike previous incumbents, be required to speak Welsh . This follows an earlier proposal to close five departments that have some of the highest levels of Welsh language content within the University. Whilst those who have an antipathy towards the Welsh language will say that the best person for the post should be appointed regardless of linguistic ability, this ignores the importance of Bangor University as the ‘cradle of the language’, especially through its excellence in teaching and research in Welsh. It also conveniently forgets the fact that Bangor is located in one of the few counties (see diagram) where Welsh is spoken by the majority of the population and is the working everyday language of many local organisations. Bangor has a high proportion of local Welsh speaking students attending its cou...

There are various reports out today which suggest that inflation could rise further than expected when figures are released later this week. Although the Bank of England has already acknowledged that inflation was likely to have risen above 3 per cent in January, it was then expected to fall below the 2 per cent target set by the Treasury. However, others are not so optimistic. For example, Investec predicts a 4.2 per cent inflation rate for January, more than double the 2 per cent target, due to the rise in VAT to 17.5%, higher petrol prices and the impact of the snow on food prices. Citigroup has also predicted that inflation would be close to 4 per cent even at the end of the year, compared with the Bank’s forecast of close to 1 per cent. Whilst the IMF has suggested that governments should allow for higher inflation in the future, this is the last thing any economy needs as it tries to recover from a recession, especially one in which the current Government has created unprecede...

One of the key factors in creating long term economic growth and competitiveness is the development of a strong innovation system that creates new products, processes and services. Given this, it is surprising to find that there remains uncertainty over the Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences (IBERS), based at Aberystwyth University. According to reports, the Institute faces a £2.4 million deficit and is facing the loss of up to 100 jobs. This news has come less than four months it was awarded the Queen’s Anniversary Prize for Higher and Further Education and a commitment, by the University, to use IBERS to address “the important issues in land-based science” and an acknowledgement that it represented best practice in the “seamless connection between scientific research and innovation”. Universities in Wales are under immense short term financial pressure and are looking to address potential future deficits in their budgets. However, it is inconceivable that the W...

Following certain rumours circulating around Cardiff Bay that Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones had made a 'secret' visit to the HQ of the German manufacturer over the weekend, WAG has finally come clean and admitted that the two did go over and try to broker a deal with Bosch on Monday. Unfortunately, as this blog pointed out nearly three weeks ago, such a move was long overdue, especially as WAG should have been in consultation with the senior management of Bosch long before the decision to close the plant, rather than relying on middle ranking civil servants dealing with middle ranking branch managers. According to the Deputy First Minister, WAG has "met regularly with Bosch, including this week in Germany, and have been working closely with them over the last few months to look at all the options available to keep the plant running and develop new product lines". However, documents revealed yesterday showed that WAG had held just two meetings with Bosch between O...

Having been in New York last week, I have now spent the last 24 hours in wonderful Copenhagen at an international project meeting, so my blogging has suffered yet again! Catching up on the news in bed, it would seem that whilst the focus in Wales has been on the timing of a referendum on further powers ( I have already given my opinion on this two years ago ), there have been some disturbing statistics released on the state of the UK economy. First of all, retailers saw the lowest sales growth in 15 years during January 2010 , with UK retail sales values falling 0.7% on a like-for-like basis from January 2009, when sales had risen 1.1%. In addition, Britain’s trade deficit increased to £7.3 billion in December 2009 - up from £6.8 billion in November - contrary to most economists, who had forecast that the deficit would fall to about £6.6 billion. Although the relative weakness of sterling did result in exports increasing by 4.5 per cent to £20.9 billion, imports rose by 5.2 per cent ...

In 2005, I wrote an article about the development of leadership within Welsh civic society and argued, that in developing the future of Wales, we needed leaders of real quality and calibre who could begin to make a real difference to our nation. Unfortunately, many of the arguments within that article remain as pertinent today as they did five years ago. In particular, there is the question of how Wales develops a new style of leadership across organisations that can transform the nation, especially given that the post-recession era will bring enormous challenges to a small country such as ours. Having spent the last week in New York, it is clear that strong and innovative leadership is an integral part of the American way of life from the White House to the White Sox. Indeed, you only have to browse the bookshops of Manhattan and see the thousands of books written by management gurus, sporting stars and successful businesspeople to know that this issue is taken very seriously in the U...

Having just come back this morning from a very successful trip to New York (more about that next week), it was good to read that the Learning and Enterprise Committee remains as independent as its predecessors such as the Economic Development Committee in providing guidance to the Welsh Assembly Government . Certainly, their comments on the state of the manufacturing industry in Wales should be a real wake-up call to the Economy and Transport Department, especially given the recent reports that less than a quarter of the business support budget had been spent in the first six months of the current financial year. Whilst I agree with much of the conclusions, I was taken by the comment in the report which stated " "A focus on quality rather than quantity with encouragement for firms with high growth potential as opposed to high numbers of start-ups". I would support the former wholeheartedly - after all, I created and have been involved in the Fast Growth 50 project for ...

Having spoken to many companies about the level of business support that they are receiving from WAG, the biggest complaint is the amount of bureaucracy that seems to be stifling the entire system. Simply put, if WAG is putting in resources to support Welsh businesses, then surely those resources should get out to those businesses as quickly as possible? Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case. When the Minister for Economy and Transport was asked what proportion of WAG's Business Support Programme had been expended by 31st October 2009, the answer came back as: "At the 31 October 2009, the expenditure on the Flexible Support for Business Programmes represented 22% of the overall annual budget for 2009-2010." Yes, that's right - after six months of the financial year, less than a quarter of the business support budget had been spent and this during the worst recession since the 1920s. You would have thought spending would be AHEAD of target given that WAG ...