THE ECONOMIST AND THE GENERAL ELECTION IN WALES

"Here be Dragons" is a fascinating article in the Economist comparing the current fortunes of the Conservative Party in Wales with the situation in Scotland.

The fact that the bible of the finance world has bothered to examine the current political situation in Wales makes it worthwhile.

However,it is pertinent, with all the navel gazing that goes on within Wales on politics, to have an outsider's views on the reasons as to why the Welsh political landscape is changing:

"The first is that although the Welsh language flourishes (arguably because Welsh-medium schools offer a way for richer parents to enjoy academic selection), the region remains close to England, sharing, for example, the English press. (The Scots have their own newspapers.) And plenty of English newcomers are learning Welsh, drawn by those same good schools.

Migration matters too: hordes of English folk, greying and otherwise, have crossed the Severn Bridge, passing Welsh youngsters heading the other way. The Office of National Statistics notes steady migratory “churn”: in most of the past decade Wales has received and despatched more British migrants than Scotland, despite the latter’s larger population. Even Plaid no longer appeals to the “Welsh”, referring instead to the “people of Wales”.

As important, Plaid has proved much feebler than Mr Salmond’s SNP. The party struggles to pose as an alternative to Labour, not least because the two share power in the Welsh Assembly. Plaid’s pedestrian leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, lacks the prickly charisma of Mr Salmond, which may explain why recent polls give the Welsh party a measly 9% of the vote.

That has opened space for the Lib Dems (who have done well, grabbing control of many urban councils) and the Tories. Proportional representation in assembly elections has kept both parties visible, even when their popularity was low. For the Tories, especially, assembly elections helped them to rebrand their party as local, for example by fielding more Welsh-speaking candidates. A Conservative in Cardiff calls his assembly members “dynamic, modern, pragmatic…it’s a very important point that we can’t be seen as a rural English party.”

I am sure there will be some (particularly in one party) who will disagree with the article, but with a week to go until we choose a new government, at least it demonstrates that Welsh seats in the tightest general election for eighteen years could be having a disproportionate influence on May 7th when the ballot boxes are opened and, more importantly, the rest of the World may be finally taking notice.

£1,400,000,000,000

Tonight, we have the third of the Prime Ministerial debates, events which until yesterday’s incident in Rochdale, had defined this election

Unfortunately, I will be acting as compere at the Young Enterprise awards at Venue Cymru in Llandudno and will miss the live broadcast.

Earlier this week, the Institute of Fiscal Studies have pointed out, quite clearly, the reality facing all three political parties regarding the ballooning public sector deficit, which is expected to reach £1.4 trillion by 2015.

Indeed, given that some of us have already pointed out some of the harsh decisions that may need to be made by the next government, whether it likes it or not, and it may be time for senior politicians to do the same.

It is expected that Gordon Brown will try and focus on his record of bringing the UK through the recession but the reality is that we are in a worst position than we could have been because of the way he squandered, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a golden legacy left behind by Ken Clarke in 1997.

Indeed, he managed to go from a position of a £17 billion surplus in 2000 to end up, even before the recession was underway, with a deficit of £61 billion in 2008.

One of the more interesting issues raised by the Institute of Fiscal Studies yesterday was the failure by Brown to deal with a worsening state of public sector productivity and the massive rise in public sector wages over this time.

Indeed, as the IFS notes:

"If the Government had managed to maintain the 'bang for each buck' at the level it inherited in 1997, it would have been able to deliver the quantity and quality of the public services it delivered in 2007 for £42.5 billion less”.

In other words, the IFS believes that the UK’s current deficit problems would have been far less if Labour had focused on delivering best value to the taxpayer rtaher than going on a spending splurge that would have put a lottery or pools winner to shame.

That is damning indictment of this Prime Minister’s economic policies and demonstrates that the problems did not start with the recession but nearly a decade ago.

The only real hope for the economy now is through ensuring the private sector grows, not only to generate vital tax income for the Treasury but to absorb the inevitable unemployment from the public sector.

That is why the proposed increase by Labour in National Insurance cost is such a threat to the economy, especially for the 4.8 million small businesses in the UK.

Indeed, whereas ten of thousands of jobs were lost in the public sector after the 1991 recession, this was quickly overtaken by a massive growth in private sector employment.

Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have focused on this issue and David Cameron now has the opportunity to make the case for a renaissance in the economic fortunes of this nation, driven by a vibrant private sector.

Hopefully, it will be an opportunity that he will grasp with both hands.

FIVE BLOGS ON WALES AND THE GENERAL ELECTION

I have, frankly, been too busy over the last few days with various projects to even contemplate writing anything on the election.

With just over a week to go until we elect a new government, I was interested in examining what others outside the Welsh blogosphere had to say about the state of the campaigns and, more importantly, their impression of Welsh life and politics.

Here, in my opinion, are five recent entries worth reading:

1. Denis Campbell, writing on the Huffington Post, gives his views to the US on the election race in the Vale of Glamorgan
2. The Guardian examines where the party leaders have been visiting constituencies and concludes that “figures place Labour in particular trouble in the north-east and Wales and neither region has seen much of the prime minister so far”.
3. Daniel Hannan discusses the issue of as “we have Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies and a Scottish Parliament, ought there to be an English legislature, too?”
4. The Wall Street Journal’s picture of the day comes from Venue Cymru in North wales, visited yesterday by her Majesty the Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh
5. Slugger O' Toole examines the FT’s claims that there is an alleged deal between the Conservative Party and the so-called Celtic Fringe of the DUP, SNP and Plaid Cymru

ADMITTING THE TRUTH ON THE WELSH ECONOMY

Earlier this week, the UK Competitiveness Index, compiled by academics at UWIC, suggested that Wales was the 'least competitive' of any of the regions in the United Kingdom.

Rather than welcoming the report as a useful contribution to the debate on the state of the Welsh economy, the response from the Welsh Assembly Government’s spokesman was predictable, dismissing it as “incomplete’ and suggesting that other indicators, such as overall increases in employment and household income per head since devolution suggested a more “positive picture”.

Sadly, such comments only reinforce the picture of a bunker mentality within certain corridors of power in Wales.

Worst of all, if there was ever any indication as to why the much-vaunted Economic Renewal Programme may fail to achieve its targets, this was it.

Yet again, the response demonstrates that some of those charged with running the Welsh Assembly Government simply do not understand the dire state of our economy in key areas such as enterprise, innovation and competitiveness.

Indeed, I find it hard to believe that the Minister for Economy and Transport would have approved such a statement, given his call for an open dialogue on the Welsh economy, a call that seems to have been ignored by his own officials.

Not that the UK Competitiveness Index needs defending, given its academic rigour and detailed analysis.

However, as there seems to be an opinion amongst some that everything is rosy in the economic garden, let us examine a number of other key indicators about the state of the Welsh economy since devolution.

During the first Assembly Government, a target was set to increase Wales's prosperity to 84 per cent of the UK average by 2002 and to 90 per cent by 2010.

At the beginning of devolution in 1999, Wales had 77.4 per cent of the UK’s prosperity levels.

However, rather than closing the gap, the policies of successive governments have resulted in a widening prosperity gap. The latest data shows that Wales’ position relative to the rest of the UK stood at 74.3 per cent, the lowest of any UK region.

So, despite having two rounds of billions of pounds of European funding for our poorest areas, Wales has fallen further behind the rest of the United Kingdom. Depressingly, recent data from the European Union suggests that West Wales and the Valleys may well qualify for a third round of European funding as the only region in the whole of the UK that is below 75 per cent of the EU average prosperity.

Has the same been true of other areas that have been in receipt of European funding?

If we examine the three other areas that, alongside West Wales and the Valleys, received Objective 1 funding between 2000 and 2006, we find that South Yorkshire is now at 90 per cent of the EU average, Merseyside is at 83.2 per cent and Cornwall at 75.2 per cent. In contrast, West Wales and the Valleys is at 73.4 per cent of the EU average of 25 nations, which now includes the former communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Let us also look at the performance of manufacturing, once the powerhouse of the Welsh economy. Since 1999, its contribution to the Welsh economy has declined from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, with tens of thousands of well paid jobs lost across the country in this key sector.

In addition, Wales has experienced the lowest increase in average full time weekly earnings of any UK region since devolution. As a result, whilst people in Wales earned £2500 less than the UK average in 1999, this difference had increased to £4200 by 2009.

Even if we examine those statistics quoted by the Welsh Assembly Government’s spokesman, we find that whilst employment levels are higher than in 1999, other poor regions such as Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North East of England have shown a larger percentage increase in employment than Wales during this period. We also have 30,000 more people unemployed in Wales than eleven years ago.

Whilst household income has increased we still remain second to bottom in the UK, after the North East of England.

Many of us who believe in devolution do so because we think that, with the right approach, more powers to Wales can make us more enterprising, more innovative and more competitive than the other parts of the UK.

If all the strategies, initiatives and projects that have spent billions of pounds of taxpayers money have made no real difference to the state of the Welsh economy, then why on earth are we carrying on with ‘business as usual’ if it is doing little to help the relative prosperity of this nation?

At a time when the public is demanding frankness from its elected politicians, we need our government to stop being in denial and to start to finally be honest about the state of our economy.

Rather than criticising individuals such as Professor Robert Huggins, author of the competitiveness report, for showing a refreshing candour about the state of the Welsh economy and what needs to be done about it, the Welsh Assembly Government should be embracing the opinions of such individuals and using them to help guide their strategy for the future.

Unfortunately, its latest response to unfavourable economic data suggests that, for the foreseeable future, there is a greater chance of the devil wearing iceskates than for our politicians and civil servants to accept external advice from individuals who actually know what they are talking about and have the facts to support their arguments.

THREE OLD PARTIES?

Thoroughly enjoyed the leaders' debate last night.

Not spectacular but at least some of the real policy differences are beginning to emerge so that voters can make a choice on the manifestos rather than on who spoke the best on the evening.

One small point, which the press seems to be conveniently ignoring.

During the last two debates, Nick Clegg has, probably with every utterance, talked about Labour and the Conservatives as the two 'old parties'.

Why then, last year, did he deliver the 150th Anniversary speech of the First Parliamentary Liberal Party Caucus at the National Liberal Club in London.

As he said at the time,

"It’s a pleasure to be here to celebrate our 150th birthday. In the summer of 1859 the Liberal Party was born. Whigs, Peelites and Radicals met over at St James Street and agreed to overthrow the then Conservative Government. It’s been a rich and rocky 150 years since then..."

Why then does Mr Clegg continuously deny his party's history during this campaign and the achievements of greats such as Gladstone, Asquith and Lloyd George?

WE WIN!

No, not that one - the election is still a fortnight away.

I am talking about Llandaff RFC Under 11s who won the Cleve Tournament in Bristol last Sunday.

The team played their hearts out and I was proud to be one of the many parents who were there all day to cheer the team and to see them win in style.

Now onto Neyland this weekend for another tournament and, crossed fingers, another win.

p.s. My son Harri is the scrumcapped player two from the left in the front row.

COMMUNITIES FIRST, WELSH ECONOMY LAST?

Yesterday, it would seem that Welsh Assembly Government officials responsible for the Communities First programme were not too happy about the conclusions of a report from the Public Accounts Committee that found that the regeneration scheme had not demonstrated value for money.

In a rare fit of pique, officials described the report as “unbalanced and partial”.

Given this, perhaps the same officials who “reacted angrily” could answer a few simple questions.

Why, despite spending £214 million of WAG money on the Communities First programme, has West Wales and the Valleys (where the vast majority of the Communities First areas are to be found) continued to decrease in relative prosperity?

Why will West Wales and the Valleys, in all probability, be the only UK region to qualify again for a third round of European funding despite spending billions of pounds of Structural Funding through the Objective 1 and Convergence fund projects?

Why have the three other non-devolved areas, alongside West Wales and the Valleys, that received Objective 1 funding between 2000 and 2006, actually grown in relative prosperity - South Yorkshire is now at 90 per cent of the EU average, Merseyside is at 83.2 per cent and Cornwall at 75.2 per cent - whilst West Wales and the Valleys has fallen to 73.4 per cent of the EU average of 25 nations, which now includes the former communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

The response of the civil servants just demonstrates, yet again, the bunker mentality that has developed in many parts of the Welsh civil service during the last eleven years, a mentality that has resulted in the economy of Wales falling further and further behind the rest of the UK.

Perhaps, as the great American cartoon Calvin and Hobbs once noted, WAG officials and politicians are not in denial, they are just selective about the reality they accept.

KEEPING MERVYN

A key political innovation developed by the current UK Government was the appointment of ‘outsiders’ to ministerial positions within the Cabinet.

The first of these external recruits to a “Government of all the talents” was Lord Digby Jones, the former head of the CBI who joined as Minister for Trade and Investment back in June 2007.

Just over a year and a half later, he resigned from the position, and later described his period as minister as "one of the most dehumanising and depersonalising experiences" anyone could have.

His replacement in the post seems to have fitted in far better, despite having spent his entire career in the high octane world of banking and finance.

Lord Mervyn Davies has been a breath of fresh air in the efforts to develop a coherent approach to UK trade and investment.

A son of Abersoch, he served as chairman of the Standard Chartered Bank for three years prior to joining the government, which was preceded by five years as the company’s chief executive.

He has taken to his job like the proverbial duck to water and has proved popular with businesses as well as politicians and policymakers.

It is certainly no coincidence that, since his arrival, there has been a renaissance in policymaking towards the support for new industries such those based on advanced manufacturing, renewable energy and digital technology.

Given his experience in the Far East, he has also been a champion for growing trade between the UK and emerging economies such as China and India. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, he noted that Britain exports twice as much to Spain as it does to China and three times as much to Spain as to India.

It is an issue that politicians have been slow to grasp and whilst other countries have flooded into these two countries, the UK’s commitment to further commercial links has tended to be lukewarm at best.

Lord Davies is also very keen to develop enterprise, particularly in Wales.

As chairman of Bangor University’s Council, he has taken a real interest in the economic success of North West Wales and he recently argued that the region needs solutions to address its distinctive economic issues.

One of these, which I wholeheartedly agree with, is to encourage more people to enter the world of entrepreneurship and that there needs to be an era in Wales which has a “huge emphasis on enterprise and really encouraging young people to start businesses.”

Unfortunately, after a tremendous start at the beginning of this decade, most universities and colleges have placed entrepreneurship on the back burner.

For example, when I left Bangor Business School as their chair of entrepreneurship back in 2004, there was no replacement and the post, and the centre I managed, was abolished. Hopefully, this will be something that he may well try to address in the future.

Mervyn Davies has made an outstanding contribution to government in a short time.

However, there are now various rumours that, with a potential change of government on May 7th, that he is looking to return to the commercial world, possibly as Chairman of an FTSE100 company.

That would be a great loss to this country and some have even urged David Cameron, if he wins the election in less than three weeks time, to keep this outstanding individual in his post.

One can only hope that if the call from the Conservatives comes, Lord Davies will continue with his evangelic work for the businesses of this nation. As this country’s emerges from the recession, his experience, expertise and enthusiasm will be needed more than ever.

DRUNK AND DISORDERLY IN CARDIFF

The front page story in today's South Wales Echo was about the veteran broadcaster John Humphreys and his condemnation of binge-drinking culture after spending a night on patrol with police.

This story isn't a shock to anyone from Cardiff.

The real surprise is that this story has not hit the headlines before today. Indeed, anyone who is from the city and is over the age of 30 won't go anywhere near the bottom of St Mary's Street on a Friday or Saturday night.

The question, of course, is whether such an image actually harms Wales or are we managing to keep this sordid secret to ourselves?

No such luck I am afraid.

Only last week, the Wall Street Journal, of all papers, ran a story about the UK's drinking culture and focused on Cardiff.

As the article notes,
"Such raucous partying routinely turns the weekend streetscape here in the capital of Wales into a scene from "Night of the Living Dead." Drunken young men and women stumble through streets fouled with trash and broken glass".

To be fair, the journalist does praise the police and is complementary, as is John Humphries, regarding the work they have to every weekend.

However, the Wall Street Journal article has an accompanying video which, to put it bluntly, is hardly an advert for the city of Cardiff.



So what are the parties promising to do about this?

Judge for yourself as this is what emerges from the four manifestos:

• Conservatives: Overhaul the Licensing Act to give local authorities and the police much stronger powers to remove licences from, or refuse to grant licences to, any premises that are causing problems. In addition, the Conservatives will (a) allow councils and the police to shut down permanently any shop or bar found persistently selling alcohol to children; double the maximum fine for under-age alcohol sales to £20,000; (b) raise taxes on those drinks linked to anti- social drinking, while abolishing Labour’s new ‘cider tax’ on ordinary drinkers; (c) ban off-licences and supermarkets from selling alcohol below cost price; and (d) permit local councils to charge more for late- night licences to pay for additional policing.

• Labour: State they have banned irresponsible promotions and strengthened police and council powers to close down rowdy pubs and clubs, cracking down on under-age and public drinking. We have brought in a right to petition local authorities to end 24-hour licensing where problems arise.

• Liberal Democrats: Support a ban on below-cost selling, and are in favour of the principle of minimum pricing, subject to detailed work to establish how it could be used in tackling problems of irresponsible drinking. Will also review the complex, ill-thought-through system of taxation for alcohol to ensure it tackles binge drinking without unfairly penalising responsible drinkers, pubs and important local industries

• Plaid Cymru: Call for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, initially set at 50p, along with stricter controls on alcohol advertising and marketing.

Given the broad consensus across all four parties, one would expect that this issue will be prioritised after the general election, but I won't be holding my breath.

FANTASY ECONOMICS

Yesterday, I noted that Peter Hain and Welsh Labour had merely plucked their figure of 50,000 new jobs for Wales jobs out of the air, or rather, by merely "barnetising" the promise to create 1 million UK jobs within their British manifesto.

No evidence was provided at all as to how they would create the jobs apart from some woolly statement about "high technology jobs".

This is par for the course for Peter Hain, but I am surprised at the First Minister, who seems to have conveniently forgotten that much of the responsibility for supporting industry is devolved and is actually under the watchful eye of the Plaid Cymru Economic Development Minister.

I wonder what Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to say about such jobs targets being imposed unilaterally?

Today, Welsh Labour launched their manifesto which you would expect would contain full details of how they were going to create these 50,000 jobs.

Yet, if you read the document carefully, that particular statistic is nowhere to be found.

And these are the individuals who want us to trust them with rebuilding the economy.

Says it all really.

MAKING A DIFFERENCE

One of the most important things we can do in Wales is to give our young people the opportunity to succeed.

That is why the Global Academy at the University of Wales has set up a new initiative in partnership with Cardiff Business Club.

The University of Wales travelling innovation scholarship will enable a graduate of the University of Wales to visit MIT (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) to meet leading world experts and learn how they can develop their entrepreneurial ideas into world class products or services back here in Wales.

MIT’s entrepreneurship programmes are amongst the best in the world, resulting in 25,800 active companies that have been founded by MIT alumni. These currently employ about 3.3 million people and generate annual world sales of £1.5 trillion, producing the equivalent of the 11th-largest economy in the world.

The aim of the scheme is to enlighten and nurture Welsh graduates with the necessary skills and knowledge so that they are better equipped to maximise their business potential. It is hoped that the beneficiary of the scheme will then be able to contribute to developing a more entrepreneurial Welsh economy.

The first winner of the University of Wales travelling scholarship is Baz Dhaliwal, a former product design student from UWIC.

Lord Griffiths of Fforestfach presented Baz with the award at a special dinner in Cardiff Business Club on Monday, April 13 (see above for photo of Baz with Gerald Davies, your correspondent and Lord Griffiths).

Baz’s start-up business, Rikoset Ltd, is developing new and innovative products to prevent injuries in sport, help rehabilitation and improve the performance of professional athletes.

The company is currently developing its first product which is an advanced shin guard aimed at professional footballers, a product which was originally conceived as an undergraduate product design project.

Speaking to Baz after the dinner, he was absolutely delighted about winning the scholarship and saw it as an excellent opportunity to meet some of the world's leading experts on business and technology to help push my business to the next stage.

His company, Rikoset are in the process of developing other products that have been conceived as a direct result of research conducted for the shin guard. The visit to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and accessing the knowledge and expertise at this world leading entrepreneurial and technical university will help the development of these products.

This is the first time we have tried something like this at the University of Wales and it came about after a conversation with Gerald Davies, the Chairman of the Club, who believed that Wales should be doing more to get young people to gain different experiences in different business environments.

We were delighted to put together this inaugural scholarship and hopefully make a real difference. One can only hope that other organisations follow our lead and give our young people opportunities to develop their potential.

THE STUDENT VOTE

Earlier today, the results of the Student Politics 2010 survey were released.

This was based on interviews with 13,961 final years studying at 30 leading universities in the UK, and was carried out in March 2010.

It showed some quite remarkable results and demonstrates how the student population’s political views have changed quite dramatically since the protest marches of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.

For example, 30 per cent of students surveyed plan to vote Conservative in the election, compared with 21 per cent for Labour, 19 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, 6 per cent for the Green Party and 6 per cent for other parties including the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru.

Almost one in five students remain undecided about whom to vote for and with 1.5 million students with the vote, this remains a constituency that could make a real difference in some seats.

If you examine the table below and compare it with the UK Polling Reports Target Seats for the Conservatives, you find that the student vote could make a real difference in key target constituencies in Bath, Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Exeter, Lancaster, London, Loughborough, Oxford, Reading and Southampton.

The results are in sharp contrast to a similar poll in 1997 with 12,000 final year students, which showed a very different picture.

Thirteen years ago, only 18 per cent planned to vote Conservative as compared to the 29 per cent who intended to vote Labour in that year’s General Election and 10 per cent who supported the Liberal Democrats.

Cardiff is the only Welsh university featured in the study and again, there is some surprise in the findings, especially for those of us who remember the 1980s and the protests over the miners' strikes on Park Place.

Naturally, one would have expected the Liberal Democrats to lead, given their strong support in Cardiff Central, they actually only hold 25 per cent of the vote as opposed to 27 per cent for the Conservatives. Labour, in contrast, has only 19 per cent of the vote and Plaid Cymru, three per cent.

You could say, to quote, Bob Dylan, that “The Times they are a changin’” but I am sure, unlike my time at Cardiff Uni 25 years ago, most of today's students haven’t even heard of him!

LABOUR'S LACK OF AMBITION FOR WALES

Yesterday, we saw the launch of the Welsh Labour manifesto in which the Secretary of State for Wales stated that

"In Wales we will back business to create up to 50,000 new jobs. We will encourage our economy to grow through advanced technology, exports and business investment".

Of course, such soundbites are the bread and butter of Peter Hain's political career, soundbites that go unquestioned by the mainstream press.

As usual, there was no real detail provided as to how these jobs are to be created or, more importantly, which part of the air this figure was plucked from.

However, when I read that, at the same launch, the First Minister had praised Labour's UK manifesto as "pro-business, pro-enterprise and pro-industry manifesto", the answer became obvious.

So I went back to the UK Labour manifesto to try and find where exactly Peter Hain got his figures from.

Lo and behold, on page 1:3, Labour promises to:

"build a high-tech economy, supporting business and industry to create one million more skilled jobs and modernising our infrastructure with High Speed Rail, a Green Investment Bank and broadband access for all".

So, given that Wales accounts for 5 per cent of the UK population, Labour has simply "Barnetised" the number of jobs that will come to Wales as a result of its UK policies.

Can you believe it?

What an insult to this nation and how typical of Labour's lack of ambition for Wales that we should not rise above the average, above what 'we deserve' from Labour's largesse at Westminster.

Perhaps someone ought to remind the Labour Party that, under their successive governments, Wales has plunged from 80 per cent of the UK's GDP to 74 per cent since Labour came to power in 1997; that we currently have 131,000 people who are officially unemployed, and that they have decimated a once vibrant manufacturing sector.

With Wales falling behind every year - the growth in GVA/head for the UK in 2008 was 3.5 per cent as opposed to 2.6 per cent for Wales - it is glaringly obvious to anyone with an ounce of intelligence that being "average" will not do anything for this economy.

In fact, if things stay the same as they are now, then the growing difference in prosperity between Wales and the rest of the UK will merely increase under such a scenario.

Do we need another Labour Government that merely says that we should be 'average', that we should get what we deserve, and that we cannot be more innovative, more enterprising and more creative than other regions in the UK?

I think we are all beginning to realise the answer to that question.

WHAT THE WELSH BLOGOSPHERE MISSED TODAY

With a full time job, it is only possible to blog either first thing in the morning or when I get home from work.

Given the nine hours in-between, I am always fascinated by what the Welsh commentariat have been up to during the day.

In particular, it is worth examining what the mainstream press have, or have not, missed out from their headlines.

Perhaps the most obvious omission is the PoliticsHome/YouGov regional voting intention data from almost 10,000 interviews.

It shows that, in Wales, Labour support has fallen five points since the 2005 election and the Liberal Democrats by four points. Plaid Cymru has increased by one percentage point.

In contrast, the Conservative vote has gone up by a full nine points and, given the overwhelming dominance of Labour at the last general election, this should give Conservative supporters the impetus to go for the final push for votes during the next three weeks.

The second piece of news, which seems to have been missed in the overall launch of the Conservative manifesto, was the promise to extend plans for a high speed rail network to Wales. The party also pledged to build a new fleet of nuclear power stations without government subsidy, and four carbon capture and storage coal power stations, which is excellent news for both North and South Wales.

I am sure there will be more information when the Welsh Conservative manifesto is launched later this week.

The worst and final piece of unreported news of the day is that the BNP, according to UK Polling Report, now has a candidate in Cardiff West.

The fact that this party of hate has decided to put up a candidate in our capital city is a sad day for politics in Cardiff and, indeed, the whole of Wales. The only time I ever lost my cool on the doorstep during the last Assembly elections in Aberconwy was after hearing the intolerance and bigotry of one potential voter.

It is the one occasion where I have ever doubted Voltaire's dictum.

Given that the UK Polling Report website still has Neil McEvoy as the Plaid candidate, one can only hope that this is a mistake, but depressingly, I doubt it.

A TAXING QUESTION?

At yesterday's unveiling of the Labour Party manifesto, the Prime Minister repeatedly declined to give a promise not to raise VAT if they win the general election.

The Labour manifesto does contain a clear promise not to increase the rate of income tax for basic or higher-rate earners.

So what does that really mean?

As Labour seems unwilling or unable to admit to deeper cuts in public expenditure, then the only conclusion is that it will raise tax by other means.

Some possible tax rises include:

• a continued freezing of income tax bands, so that hundreds of thousands more people will be dragged into paying higher taxes
• an increase VAT from 17.5 per cent during the next Parliament.
• a commitment to setting up a commission on funding social care raised the prospect of a "death tax" on people's estates.
• a plan to review the whole system of local government finances could pave the way for a local income tax to replace the council tax.
• further increases in National Insurance - the Government's plans to increase National Insurance from next April mean a worker earning £40,000 would pay £187 more tax.

However, can Labour be trusted not to raise the level of income tax during a five year term?

After the 2001 election, Labour increased national insurance contributions after promising no increase in income tax. This year, the top rate of tax went up from 40p to 50p last week even though Labour pledged that, again, there would be no increase in income tax rates.

Unfortunately, with National Insurance now being seen by Labour as part of the overall tax system, I would expect that this is the area in which we would see rises during a five year Labour term.

As the Telegraph noted this morning, their promises on tax are simply not worth the paper that they are written on.

ALL SOUNDBITE AND NO SUBSTANCE

According to the current Secretary of State for Wales, Labour's manifesto plans to:

"unleash a wave of thousands and thousands of jobs in Wales, encouraging businesses and entrepreneurs to get help to start new enterprises that can make the most of the global move to low carbon.”

Sounds great but if you look at Labour's record during the last thirteen years, it doesn't exactly stack up.

Indeed, Mr Hain should explain how exactly he is going to create these jobs, given the dismal economic record of his government in Wales. For example,

• Wales has 133,000 adults out of work - the highest unemployment rate out of all the UK nations with one in four adults in Wales being economically inactive


• The business sector has been hit hard during the recession, with a fall in employment of 45,000 private sector jobs in Wales during the recession. In contrast, public sector employment has increased by 8,000 workers


• Since 1997, Wales has experienced the lowest increase in average full time weekly earnings of any UK region. As a result, the gap between earnings in Wales and the rest of the UK has actually increased from £1800 per year less than the average for the UK in 1997. £4200 per year in 2009.


• The value of exports in Wales in 2009 was £9 billion as compared to £10.6 billion in 2008. This represents a decline of 15.4 per cent over the last twelve months as compared to a fall of 9.8 per cent across the UK.
  
• The manufacturing base of Wales, which actually rose to 28 per cent of the nation’s economic output during the last Conservative government, has now declined to 18 per cent since Labour came to power

In terms of green jobs, he should read recent evidence to the Enterprise and Learning Committee, where the commercial manager of Eco2 - a leading Welsh supplier of renewable energy - stated that Wales has missed out on the chance to create manufacturing jobs in green energy, especially wind and wave power.

In terms of creating new businesses, it is worth noting that Wales has experienced a decline in new business starts between 2004 and 2008 was 19.4 per cent - the worst performance of any region of the UK. WAG also ditched the Entrepreneurship Action Plan for Wales - the private sector led enterprise strategy that, for once, actually made a real difference to entrepreneurial activity and awareness across the economy.

More relevantly, after thirteen years of Labour and billions of pounds of wasted opportunities, Wales remains rooted to the bottom of the UK's prosperity league table.

Perhaps the mainstream media could ask Mr Hain, at Thursday's Welsh Labour manifesto launch, why anyone should trust him and his party on the Welsh economy when we have seen our relative prosperity shrink from 80 per cent of the UK average to 74 per cent, with four of the five poorest areas in the whole of the UK being here in Wales?

The facts show unequivocally that, under Labour, the Welsh economy has gone backwards relative to the rest of the UK.

Why on earth would anyone want five more years of the same?

THE DEBT TRAP

Naturally, the main focus of the press and the voters over the last week has been on domestic matters during the first shots of the general election campaign.

However, it is events that are taking place fifteen hundred miles away which indicate some of the future problems that may well face this country after the election.

If reports are to be believed, Greece will finally getting bailed out by the EU and the IMF next week amid rumours that the country can no longer fund itself following an exodus of capital and crippling interest rates.

On Friday, the credit agency Fitch also downgraded Greek debt to BBB-, just one notch above junk grade. Indeed, an increasing number of economists are warning that the EU/IMF rescue package may only delay the inevitable default by Greece which could lead to economic ruin.

Of course, the UK Government remains in denial about the scale of cuts needed to pacify the markets.

This despite the fact that the public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was £857.5 billion (or 60.3 per cent of GDP) at the end of February 2010 compared with £712.4 billion (or 50.5 per cent of GDP) a year earlier.

For those who doubt the seriousness of a position where our annual public deficit, at 11 per cent of GDP, is just short of the situation in Greece, should read the following article on a recent report from the Bank for International Settlements.

The really worrying passages include:

“Interest payments on the UK's public debt will double from 5pc of GDP to 10pc within a decade under the bank's 'baseline scenario' before spiralling upwards to 27pc by 2040, the highest in the industrial world. Greece fares better, and Italy looks saintly by comparison.

“The BIS said the UK's structural budget deficit will be 9pc of GDP next year, the highest in the advanced world. A primary surplus of 3.5pc of GDP will be required for the next twenty years just to stabilize the debt at the pre-crisis level.

“The paper said that Labour's plan to consolidate the budget deficit by 1.3pc of GDP annually for the next three years is not nearly enough. Such a gentle squeeze will let public debt climb to 160pc of GDP by the end of the decade, accelerating to 350pc over the following twenty years as the compound interest trap closes in.”

GROWING THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN WALES?

In the various speeches that the First Minister has given to Welsh business since assuming his role last December, he has argued that Wales does not have a large public sector.

Instead, he has tried to make the case that the size of the ‘public sector’ is about right and, instead, we have to grow the private sector in Wales.

Such a position has led to a discussion whereas some, mainly in the trade union movement, have claimed that any reduction in the public sector should be minimised and that, instead, there should be tax increases across the board for individuals and businesses.

In contrast, the private sector has suggested that, given the savage beating that businesses have taken during the recession, it should be the over-manned public sector that should be target of government cuts i.e. it is not the private sector that is too small but the public sector that is too big.

The depth of feeling amongst company chiefs that it is time that the public sector shared the pain of the downturn with the private sector was best epitomised by last week’s ‘revolt’ over the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s proposed increase in national insurance by the bosses of some of the top companies in the UK, supported by a range of business organizations including the CBI, IOD and the Federation of Small Businesses.

Does business have a valid point or is the public sector, as one leading trade union leader pointed out last week, “already on the frontline of recession”?

An analysis of economic indices show that the UK economy declined by 6.1 per cent between June 2008, when the recession officially began, to September 2009, which was the last quarter to show any decline in GDP. This was, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer himself pointed out, the worst decline in the economy since the 1920s.

So what happened to employment in Wales during this period?

According to statistics from the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG), overall employment in Wales declined by 38,500. However, if we compare the differences in employment between the public and private sector, then the picture is somewhat contrasting.

During the recession, the number of those in employment in the private sector in Wales declined by 45,000. This is despite programmes such as Pro-Act and Re-Act being in place.

In contrast, those employed in the public sector actually went up by 8,000 during this fifteen month period.

Therefore, whilst Welsh businesses has shed tens of thousands of employees during the worst recession for ninety years, there seems to be little evidence to show that the public sector been affected during the economic downturn.

Some may argue that current Governments in Cardiff Bay and Westminster have made the choice, rightly or wrongly, to protect those working in the public sector at a time of recession.

Yet, from the evidence presented by a range of organisations, the next UK government will have little choice but to look for savings in public expenditure with knock on effects for Wales.

For example, the Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that Whitehall departments would have to find savings of up to £45 billion by 2015 whilst the European Union has stated that the current deficit, currently at 11 per of GDP, needs to be cut more rapidly.

Indeed, even Alastair Darling has suggested that his cuts will be worst than anything experienced during the 1980s.

The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) has already started reducing departmental expenditure dramatically as compared to the previous year’s final budget.

Such cuts will, in all probability, lead to a considerable reduction in public sector employment after nearly a decade of unprecedented growth.

If that is the case, then it is critical that WAG has the right strategy in place to ensure that the private sector grow to compensate for these losses.

Clearly, it won’t be easy at a time when we have the lowest proportion of those employed in the private sector than at any time this century.

The stark reality of the situation facing politicians is that private sector employment in Wales has declined by 45,000 in the fifteen months of the recession.

Worst of all, 78 per cent of this reduction in private sector employment has occurred within the fifteen local authority areas that already qualify for £2 billion of Convergence funding from Europe and are rated amongst the poorest in the European Union.

Simply put, our most deprived communities have been hit the hardest during the recession.

Back in 2001, 73 per cent of those employed in Wales were in the private sector. By September 2009, this had fallen to 69 per cent, demonstrating the challenges facing those in power in Wales if, as they suggest, we are to grow the private sector over the next few years.

Whilst a large part of the economic recovery is in the hands of the next UK Government, there is still a major role to be played by politicians in Cardiff Bay.

One can only hope that the First Minister and his government turn their rhetoric into action by developing and implementing an ambitious vision to create a more entrepreneurial and innovative nation and ensure, unlike the previous decade, that it is the private sector that grows and drives forward the Welsh economy in years to come.

"FLESH EATING TORY ECONOMIC SUPREMO BACKS ORGANISED CRIME"

Having taken Easter off, I suddenly emerged from the bank holiday to find that the Western Mail had headlined last Monday’s edition with a press release from the Labour Party criticising my view of an Institute of Directors (IOD) report which examined different ways in which the government could potentially save £50 billion.

Unfortunately, no-one from the paper bothered to contact me about the article for a right of reply which, given the fast changing nature of election journalism, isn’t too surprising.

However, it was disappointing that I didn’t get the opportunity to set the record straight and respond directly to the charges from Peter Hain, so I might as well as do it here.

In various press releases, the Secretary of State for Wales has suggested that the IOD document, published over seven months ago, constitute current Conservative Party policy.

As the late Alan Clark would have said, that is being "economical with the actualite".

It should be noted that the report was not published by the Conservative Party but by the IOD and which represents 45,000 business members across the UK.

Therefore, if the Labour Party wishes to attack any organisation over the contents of the report, then he should go after the IOD, of which I am a member, although given the way that they have alienated large parts of the business community during the last few days, that is unlikely.

Indeed, it is noteworthy that not one Labour Minister, including Mr Hain himself, criticised the report when it was first published back in September 2009.

However, it shouldn’t be a shock to anyone who has read my columns in the Western Mail during the last six years that I strongly believe that lower taxes, rather than higher spending, is what will ensure a quick exit from the current recession.

Not surprisingly, such a view is probably shared with the vast majority of the businesses in Wales that actually create wealth and employment in our communities.

Perhaps the most ridiculous aspect of blatant electioneering was that Labour’s flimsy accusations were based solely on my consideration of the IOD report as “excellent” and, as a result, I therefore agreed with everything in the report.

For the record, I also think that the Enterprise Investment Scheme is an “excellent” vehicle for supporting UK enterprise but that does not make me a supporter of the Labour Government.

I am hardly a Liberal for thinking that David Lloyd George was an “excellent” prime minister or a nationalist in rating Dafydd Wigley as an “excellent” politician.

I consider Silence of the Lambs to be an “excellent” book and the “excellent” Godfather is my favourite film, but does that make me a serial killer or a supporter of the Mafia?

Of course not, although I am now expecting the next press release from Welsh Labour stating that “Flesh eating Tory Economic Supremo backs organised crime”.

The IOD report is an independent analysis that demonstrates where any government, Labour or Conservative, could reduce its expenditure if it so chose.

It has not been adopted by any political party but shows where there is potential for savings at a time when we have an annual deficit for 2009-2010 that is currently running at £167 billion or 11 per cent of GDP, roughly the same level as Greece.

However, the IOD is not alone in believing that government expenditure should be reduced to deal with a ballooning deficit that threatens the UK’s financial viability.

The much respected Institute for Fiscal Studies has stated that government spending must fall by £46 billion by 2015 whilst the European Union has told the Government to increase cuts to reduce the deficit or face major problems in the coming years.

Even the Chancellor of the Exchequer recently admitted that his own government, if re-elected, would need to introduce cuts deeper than those experienced in the 1980s.

Does that now make Mr Darling, to use Peter Hain’s own words, an “Uber-Thatcherite”?

There is a grown-up debate to be had about how this nation recovers from the deepest recession in living memory.

Rather than engaging in what can only be best described as ‘student politics’, it would serve the voters of this nation better if Peter Hain addresses the real issues about the current state of the Welsh economy.

He could explain why, after thirteen years of Labour “investment”, we have seen our relative prosperity shrink from 80 per cent of the UK average to 74 per cent, with four of the five poorest areas in the whole of the UK being here in Wales?

He should tell us why, with 133,000 adults out of work, we have the highest unemployment rate out of all the UK nations and why one in four adults in Wales are economically inactive?

Finally, he should give detailed reasons as to why the manufacturing base of Wales, which actually rose to 28 per cent of the nation’s economic output during the last Conservative government, has now declined to 18 per cent since Labour came to power?

Those are the real concerns about the Welsh economy that should be discussed at this election, not the smear, spin and innuendo that has characterised this Labour Government’s time in office. Perhaps the Welsh news media wouldn't mind asking these questions during the next four weeks.

It is the least that the people, and the businesses, of Wales deserve before one of the most momentous general elections of the last thirty years.

CHANGING THE ELECTION MOOD MUSIC?

All day, we have had the political parties claiming and counterclaiming on what they will do for the UK economy?

For Mr and Mrs Joe Average, the issue of national insurance as a percentage of government expenditure may not be something which they fully comprehend.

However, they do understand the price of petrol and today we saw the average price of unleaded petrol hit a new high of 119.9p a litre, mainly due to the weakness of the pound which makes the import of fuel more expensive.

As a result, the cost of filling a 50-litre tank with petrol has risen from £42.95 in Jan 2009 (when prices were at their lowest) to £59.70, an increase of £16.74.

Will they blame the oil companies or the current Government?

More relevantly, how will the various political parties try to make capital out of something that affects millions of individuals and businesses across the country.

Indeed, it is sometimes the simplest of things that can change the entire mood of the electorate during a General Election.

PETER HAIN PRAISES MARGARET'S THATCHER'S BUSINESS POLICIES

Yesterday, Peter Hain visited a business in Cardiff North which had been recently helped by the loan guarantee scheme which, according to the BBC, Mr Hain said "had offered a lifeline to such businesses".

He went on to say that:

"When he accessed the funding - right at the start of credit crunch - it helped the business with the sort of typical cashflow problems we saw many SMEs (small and medium sized enterprises) face at the time. It enabled his business to keep afloat at difficult time and to keep his employees in good quality, paid employment".

Of course it did.

That is why the small business Loan Guarantee Scheme he was praising was introduced by Margaret Thatcher's first government back in 1981 in response to long-standing concern about the problems encountered by small businesses in raising external finance.

INNOVATION IN WALES - CAN WE CREATE THE NEXT GOOGLE?

Last week, the Western Mail reported on a fascinating interview with the former First Minister, Rhodri Morgan, in which he argued that Europe must discover how so many successful technology companies take root in the United States and learn from the conditions in the US that have allowed companies such as Amazon and Google to be created and thrive.

He then went on to suggest that West Wales and the Valleys would qualify for a new round of European funding, bringing billions more into the economy to help close the prosperity gap with the rest of the UK.

Given the points raised by Mr Morgan, it is worth examining how Wales has actually spent the first round of European Structural funds, known as Objective 1, to encourage and develop innovation within our poorest regions between 2000 and 2006.

One of the key aims of the Objective 1 programme was to improve the competitiveness of the region through the acquisition and use of knowledge and new technologies. This was to be done in a variety of ways, including creating a culture of innovation, increasing investment in R&D, and diversifying the economic base by growing more technology and knowledge driven firms and improving their links to the knowledge base.

A total of £131 million of European grants were awarded to 34 different Welsh organisations during the period 2000-2006 to help develop a greater culture of innovation in Wales within 105 projects, which had a total value of a quarter of a billion pounds.

So what did we get for the small fortune spent on developing innovation? Did Wales manage to start putting into place the foundations for a new and innovative nation?

As research shows, if we first of all look at the programme targets for innovation, only 4,870 new jobs were created as opposed to 8,000, which equates to a 61 per cent success rate.

In terms of the number of employees helped through innovation training activities, only 6,950 individuals (or 46 per cent of the programme target) have been assisted, well below the forecasted total of 8,112. This failure in reaching human capital targets is extremely worrying as innovation cannot be developed effectively without the necessary quality of people.

With regard to the number of new companies in high-technology sectors, a target of 2,000 was established for the programme, although only 431 (or 22 per cent of the programme target) have been created at the end of 2008.

Given that the former First Minister has emphasised that Wales should prioritise knowledge-driven entrepreneurship, the efforts to date have been largely unsuccessful as a result of Objective 1 funding.

Therefore, there has been a failure in achieving the key targets and raising the innovation potential of West Wales and the Valleys. Even if we look at broader statistics, such as the level of private sector expenditure on research and development (R&D) in Wales, we find that there has been only a slight improvement over the course of the programme. Whilst the Welsh Assembly Government established a target of private sector R&D accounting for 1 per cent of GVA by 2010, this had only reached 0.53 per cent by 2008.

Whilst £284 million of innovation support projects have been supported under the Objective 1 funding, the key programme targets in terms of new jobs, upskilling and new business creation were not achieved. The question, of course, is whether this sort of funding could and should have created an environment that, as the former First Minister noted, could incubate the technological companies of the future? Indeed, how many successful companies can anyone name that have emerged and grown as a result of the millions spent on innovation?

Some will argue that the large capital projects, such as the Technium programmes, are long term investments that will help develop a stronger innovation infrastructure linking university and industry. That may well be the case, but given that a key focus of the structural funds programme is the creation of higher quality jobs within the poorest areas of Wales, the failure to achieve the jobs and training target, never mind the target for the number of new high technology firms, should concern policymakers.

So what are the lessons to be learnt from the relative failure of the Objective 1 programme to raise the innovation potential of this nation?

The evidence clearly shows that there remains a disconnect between the key actors, with all of them operating in silos rather than as an efficient system that effectively transfers knowledge from the laboratory to the market-place and then provides the necessary resources and support to fully exploit that knowledge. Indeed, there must be a greater effort in ensuring that programmes focus on building both research capacity in both the academic and private sectors whilst enabling better relationships between the two sectors, a role that government can contribute to and, more importantly, stimulate and enhance.

Therefore, if the next Googles, Yahoos and YouTubes of the future are to emerge in Wales over the next decade, then there must be a different approach to supporting innovation and not just repeating the same policy initiatives which have largely failed to attain the targets within the previous round of Objective 1 structural funding. In particular, government needs to bang some heads together and ensure that all the key actors work more closely together as part of an innovation system and not operate in isolation or, even worse, in competition.

If Wales is to improve its innovation performance over time, then we must ensure that the sum of the parts – government, industry and academia – are greater than the whole.

THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND THE RECESSION

There is an interesting article on the Wales Home website by Paul O Shea, the head of Unison, about public sector cuts.

It is essentially the speech which he gave to Bevan Foundation recently in a panel debate in which I also participated.

One clearly can't fault Paul for taking the stance that he has on this subject, but I must take him to task over two main points which he makes in his speech.

First of all, Paul states that “public services and public service workers are already on the frontline of recession”.

According to the most recent employment statistics, private sector employment has fallen by more than 4 per cent since the beginning of 2008, while the public sector has expanded by almost 6 per cent. Over the past year, some 46,000 jobs were created by the state whilst 527,000 jobs were lost in the private sector. Therefore, there is little evidence to show that the public sector has suffered during the worst recession since the 1920s.

By all means let’s have a debate on employment and economic policies and whether you believe that the public sector should be safeguarded. In fact, make the case that the Labour Government has made the choice, rightly or wrongly, to protect those working in the public sector at a time of recession. But it depresses me when the line is peddled that the public sector has suffered as a result of the recession when the facts show the exact opposite. That undermines Paul's whole thesis on the subject.

He also makes the point that "In contrast, public sectors workers are not well paid. The majority earn less than £20,000 per annum – a sharp contract to the City bankers, many of whom have received bonuses in excess of £1 million".

There are few would disagree with the premise that bankers’ bonuses should be curtailed but that is an erroneous comparison. Instead, Paul should be comparing the average working person’s annual salary in the public and private sectors. For example, consider WAG's own statistics which show that those with degree level qualifications in the public sector are paid 11 per cent more per annum than their equivalents in the private sector (36 per cent of those in the public sector have degrees as compared to 15 per cent in the private sector).

In contrast, the private sector in Wales pays workers with no qualifications £20 per month MORE than the public sector. This means that the pay differential between the most qualified and least qualified in the public sector is 24 per cent higher than in the private sector.

Surely, given the fact that two thirds of public sector employees are trade union members as opposed to a fifth of private sector workers, this should be the main issue for UNISON?

The whole debate on the role of the public sector is an emotive issue for some, especially on the left of the political spectrum.

However, surely we should be making the case for the public sector to become more efficient and effective and to ensure that taxpayers money is provided for frontline services rather than in funding pointless bureaucratic waste?

The April Fool video for the "Department of Government Waste" was one of the best spoofs I have seen in years but behind the humour were some salient points about how Government has wasted taxpayers money during the last thirteen years.

This isn't a case of public sector good, private sector bad, or vice-versa, as it is inevitable, whoever wins the next election, that there will be reduction in public sector expenditure. Therefore, what we need is a debate not on whether we are going to cut public sector expenditure but HOW we are going to do it.

Let start this off with two articles on the subject, namely the IOD paper on procurement and an article on managing public sector costs in Management Today.

If anyone has any further articles, then I shall post them here on this blog.

A QUESTION OF TRUST

Earlier today, Lord Mandelson thought that he would get away with his usual attacks on George Osborne after 23 leaders of some of the UK's largest companies wrote a letter in favour of the Conservative Party's plans to halt the planned increase in national insurance.

However, in stating that these vastly experienced businessmen had been the victims of "cynical deception" by the Conservatives, he has not only seen an instant rebuttal by some of the signatories but has now managed to get the British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and five other organisations to back the Conservative policy on National Insurance.

So whose word would you trust?

The bosses of some of the top companies in the UK, including Kingfisher, Sainsbury's, GlaxoSmithKline, Mothercare, the Virgin Group, Marks and Spencer, Diageo, Harvey Nichols, Next and the easyGroup, or a politician who has already been thrown out of the Cabinet twice for personal and financial irregularities?

Of course, if Lord Mandelson wants to know where further savings on government waste can be found, he could read the excellent document produced by the IOD, which sets out a clear agenda for efficiency savings in the public sector. That demonstrates quite clearly where this government, and any future administration, can stop a tax on jobs and gets its own house in order.