To those who follow politics, there remains some debate over whether the AV vote will have any effect on differential turnout within this election.
For example, will more Liberal Democrat voters, rather than staying at home following the battering their party has received in the press and by the polls, actually come out and vote for AV and then, at the same time, give their vote to their party?
Equally, given that the latest AV poll shows that two thirds of Conservative voters are against any changes to the current first past the post system (by far the highest proportion of any UK political party), will the normally Assembly reticent traditional wing of the Conservative Party come out in droves on May 5th to oppose the AV vote and, at the same time, vote for their local Conservative candidate in the Welsh election?
Certainly, the UK's most popular political blog seems to think that there is certainly a correlation between areas holding other elections and the No vote. Yesterday's article by Mike Smithson suggests that recent polls are indicating that the No vote is stronger where other elections are taking place, as the graph below indicates from the ICM poll.
Of course, Mike points to the fact that those voting in areas with other elections are more likely to vote No. However, given that 66 per cent of Conservatives, higher than any other party, are intending to vote against the AV system, what does this mean for local and Assembly elections were turnout is normally lower than for the General election?
The AV vote has, to date, been largely ignored by BBC Wales, ITV Wales, the Western Mail and the Daily Post. Yet it is clear that the “English” media, which still dominates in Wales through the national press, will begin to focus heavily during the next fortnight on the debate between AV and the first-past the-post system, especially given its potential for creating rifts within the Coalition Government.
So, ironically, could turnout in the Assembly election, which still remains below half of those entitled to vote, actually be boosted by the other poll on the day and therefore skew the expected result completely? We will find out in just over a fortnight.
7 comments:
Interesting thoughts. I'd considered whether the AV referendum would be more beneficial to UKIP and the Conservatives. There's talk of an 'inverted Pyramid' of Lib Dem support in some areas: http://www.politicswales.com/wordpress/2011/04/a-boost-for-ukip-a-firewall-for-lib-dems/
As an Independent Candidate standing on the North Wales Regional list I favour the Alternative Vote.
Had the AV system been used for this year’s Constituency Elections, then I would have stood for one of the Constituencies.
I did originally put name forward as a prospective candidate, but having spent 2 months investigating and campaigning I released that the resources (both financial and personnel) available to the Political Parties, meant my chances of persuading around 30-40% of the electorate to vote for an Independent candidate was an impossible task on a limited budget.
I have now decided to stand on the North Wales Regional List, as the Proportionality system used, although still favours the main political parties, does give a chance for an Independent Candidate to gain an Assembly Member seat.
The fact I am the only Independent Candidate standing in the North Wales Regional List has helped my chances.
I do believe that Independent people have a great deal to give in Government, I am currently an Independent Councillor for Conwy County Borough Council and it is through this experience that I have been given the confidence and support to stand in the Assembly Elections. I have chosen not to be a member of a Political Party, but this shouldn’t mean I can’t be a representative for North Wales. The Alternative Vote would help other people who want to stand as an Independent.
Jason Weyman
http://jasonweyman.blogspot.com
Lib Dems would do amazingly better with AV
Tories would be big loosers
Bigest decider for me - it's not PR and that's what we need for fairness and democracy
Seems odd that you vote one set of principles and beliefs and then you have to cast a vote again on a different set of principles and beliefs. Its intellectually incoherent.
Bad timing more people are bothered about their jobs at the moment not voting systems!
Seems to be contradiction here, Valleys Mam. You want the Tories to be the big losers, and you want fairness and democracy. Even handed, eh?
Bern
I'm quietly confident that the pressure for AV will be buried for ever in a couple of weeks.
Having been out and about canvassing, I can say that (at least in North-East Wales) there is, sadly, little interest in the Asssembly election, but quite a bit of knowledge of the AV vote. My impression is that "No" is well ahead of "Yes".
For what it's worth, I also think that the referendum will boost Assembly election turnout, but it's impossible to say which party will be the beneficiary. The Lib Dems will, however, be the losers.
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