According to a recent statement from the First Minister of Wales, "some 50% of exports from Wales are to the EU". Yet recent data from the Welsh Government's own statistics suggest that it is considerably less than that, as figure 1 below shows. In fact, only Scotland had a lower proportion of exports with the EU in the third quarter of 2011.
Will this mean that any downturn in the eurozone will affect Wales less than the majority of other UK regions?
Certainly, as figure 2 demonstrates, there has been a gradual long term decline in the proportion of Welsh exports that go to EU countries since 1999. The export profile of Wales has changed considerably since devolution and whilst Europe is still a key partner, the fact that we have moved away from a dependency of 75 per cent on the EU back in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2011 shows that, thankfully, we now have a far more balanced exporting economy.
A further piece of good news is that the relative importance of exporting has grown in Wales, and now accounts for 4.6 per cent of all UK exports as compared to 3.7 per cent in 1999. Europe has played a minor part in this growth - the total value of EU exports has only increased by 16.6 per cent during 1999-2011 whilst overall Welsh exports have gone up in value by 107.3 per cent over the same period.
Yes, the EU remains a major trading partner but thankfully, exports to other parts of the World are also becoming important to the future of the Welsh economy. Perhaps that, and the growth in overall exports, is what the Welsh Government should have been celebrating last month rather than trying to score political points against David Cameron.
More on this in today's Western Mail.
Figure 1: Exports to the EU as a percentage of total exports, by UK region, quarter 3 2011.
Table 2: EU exports as a proportion of total Welsh exports, 1999-2011
Figure 4. Welsh exports, by region, quarter 3, 1999
Figure 4. Welsh exports, by region, quarter 3, 2011
7 comments:
great post Dylan, glad to see the opposition is holding Carwyn's fee to the fire for a change.
Sadly it doesn't matter if he was right or wrong on the figures no one out side politics will remember this is a few days, besides the object of the exercise was to remind voters that the Tories remain an anti Welsh party and Labour are their champions, rather than be a grown up First Minister and fighting Wales corner.
In fairness to Carwyn, this is the figure for just one quarter, to a Eurozone in deep economic trouble. What were the figures for previous quarters?
Surely no one assesses trading patterns on such limited data?
"Surely no one assesses trading patterns on such limited data?"
I think your eyesight is getting as bad as mine in your old age, Jac!
See figure 2 - I think that demonstrates clearly the declining profile of Welsh exports to the EU since 2002.
We in Wales need to expand our exports into regions that have growing economies, and the obvious place to start is Brazil.
As a nation we face west, our ports are on the west coast, and that's the fastest way to Latin America, USA, Canada and even parts of North Africa.
We will not compete easily with east coast ports for EU ship bound trade (except Ireland) and this is not the best place to spend our efforts anyway just now.
Do you happen to have gross figures in terms of £, rather than simple percentages.
One needs to see both to have a more balanced view.
for all we know, based on the above, the EU has simply imported less from Wales in recent years (graph shows a remarkable similarity to global and euro crisis); rather than North America buying more.
Since 1999, exports from Wales to the EU have increased from £1.1 billion to £1.3 billion - an increase of 17%.
Exports to the USA have increased from £217m to £1 billion over the same period - an increase of 362%.
Does that answer your question?
I meant North America, not USA. My apologies....
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