PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

Back in late January, I was having a cup of tea with one of Wales’ leading businesspeople who had been keeping an eye on the emergence of a new flu-like virus that was spreading like wildfire through the Chinese city of Wuhan.  He showed me a video of people shouting from their locked apartment blocks in the middle of the night and suggested that this could be a serious situation that could get out of control quickly, advising me to buy some high-quality personal protection masks as soon as possible.  Of course, when I did and told friends and family, this naturally resulted in a lot of leg pulling at my over-reaction to something happening thousands of miles away that would never affect Wales.  Fast forward six weeks later and everyone was trying to get hold of facemasks as the whole of the world went into lockdown and nations faced the first serious global pandemic since the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918. Since then, we have seen the country shut down, re-opened and now ...

As businesses begin to open again and people go back to work, what has been the impact to date on the business community in Wales? According to the latest data from the ONS, there are considerable challenges facing the Welsh economy as we began the slow journey to recovery. For example, Wales has fewer businesses (87%) that are continuing to trade during this pandemic than any other region or nation of the UK with the West Midlands (93%) having the highest proportion of those still operating.  In addition, whilst Wales has the second lowest proportion of firms where overall turnover has decreased in the UK after Northern Ireland, it also has the highest level of businesses (18%) where turnover has decreased by more than 50%. This possibly suggest that more firms will be facing critical cashflow problems soon if their income does not improve. Over the last few months, there has been a higher dependency of Welsh businesses on government support with four out of five businesses in Wal...

As predicted, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced specific support last week for the tourism and hospitality industry that has been hardest hit by the shutdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.  This included cutting VAT to 5 per cent for food, accommodation and attraction  businesses and the unprecedented introduction of a half price discount on meals and non-alcoholic drinks every Monday to Wednesday in August. Many applauded Rishi Sunak for this bold move but, of course, these incentives will only benefit businesses that are open to paying customers and, unfortunately, that is not the currently the situation in Wales. However, the good news released yesterday lunchtime after desperate pleas from the tourism industry across Wales is that pubs, cafes, restaurants and bars can reopen indoors in Wales from 3rd August if coronavirus cases continue to fall.  The law enforcing the 2m social distancing rules will also be altered if other measures such as the installation ...

Earlier this week, three open letters to the First Minister, Mark Drakeford, were published from the tourism and hospitality sector in Wales.  The first - from over forty owners of the most popular visitor attractions in Wales - called for urgent clarity around dates for reopening after lockdown so they can pro-actively plan their business to take full advantage of any changes.  This was followed by a heartfelt plea from North Wales Tourism to support the industry and ensure it does not fall into the situation where it take years to recover from the recession.  The final letter, from a group of leading restaurants in Wales , asked the First Minister for his support to work with the sector in partnership to ensure that its important contribution both to local economies and the economy of Wales as a whole is able to thrive in the years ahead.  More importantly, these businesses – independent pubs, cafes, restaurants, street food and other food based businesses that em...

Undoubtedly, the industry that has been hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic is the leisure and hospitality sector of the Welsh economy.  Pubs, bars, restaurants, music venues and theatres have been closed for two months and, according to the UK and Welsh Governments, are likely to be the last to open as restrictions are lifted.  So does this means that the so-called social economy is dead or is there a different vision to its future whilst living side-by-side with the Coronavirus? According to the article “ Covid’s Metamorphoses: The Future of the Social Economy ” by Philip Kolvin QC and Alicia Scholer, there are certainly challenges ahead although these can be overcome if the social economy is seen as a place where we not only eat and drink but also interact with those human beings that we have had to avoid for the last two months.  The social economy should also be recognised by policymakers as not only an economic force but also a social good that needs to be actively...

Last year, the Welsh Government announced that it would be considering the introduction of a new tax following the new fiscal responsibilities that have been awarded to Wales. These included a disposable plastics tax on plastics – such as coffee cups – that cannot be recycled; a vacant land tax which would address the issue of so- called “land banks” which restricts the land available for new housing; and a levy to support social care. However, probably the most controversial amongst the business community was the proposal to introduce a tourism tax which would be a small charge on visitors staying in accommodation. This seems like deja vu all over again and takes me back to the controversy, over eleven years ago, when the Local Government Association’s recommended that a ‘bed tax’ should be set to fund public transport schemes. At the time, a proposed 10 per cent tax per night on all overnight accommodation - added to the 17.5 per cent of VAT - could have resulted in UK beco...

Eleven months since the UK took the momentous decision to leave the European Union, the economy has been remarkably resilient although the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week showed that the effect of rising prices, due largely to the fall in the pound over recent months, has slowed down the unexpected growth in since June 2016. According to official statistics, the economy expanded by only 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, less than half of what was experienced in the last quarter for 2016 and slightly below the 0.4 per cent that was generally expected by economic forecasters. This was largely due to a slowdown in the growth within the services industry which accounts for the majority of the UK’s economy, with increased prices affecting consumer spending. However, with the current UK Government looking to develop a more balanced economy once Brexit has been completed, it was heartening to see that construction had grown by 0.2 per cent w...

As one of those who believed the weather forecasters’ predictions that we were due for a heatwave across the UK this summer, the damp squib that has accompanied much of my holidays in August was slightly disappointing, although it did allow me the opportunity to catch up on various box sets, novels and general housekeeping. The continuing rain falling across our fair land last week did fill me with some trepidation over my visit back home to North Wales, as one of my best friends and his family were due to visit the Llyn Peninsula together for the first time. 
I have known Dr Charles Li since we studied for our PhDs together more than 25 years ago and while I went into academia, he ended up going into finance and heading up both RBS and ANZ banks in China before retiring last year (although he still sits on the boards of some Chinese businesses). Whilst I am godfather to his eldest son (and he is godfather to mine), we have only been able to meet up occasionally when I have been ...

As we are all aware, tourism is one of the major industries here in Wales, employing thousands of people and bringing wealth into local communities across the region. Whilst business support for tourism has been devolved to the Welsh Government since 1999, the general election in eight days time still gives us the opportunity to assess the level of importance attached by each of the parties to the industry. Indeed, many would argue that it has become largely a forgotten industry when it comes to government economic policy over the last two decades, certainly as compared to interventions for sectors such as oil and gas, manufacturing and the creative industries. Yet tourism could contribute so much more to the development of the UK economy if it was properly supported. Given this, what have the main political parties promised the industry if they gain power next week? As the British Hospitality Association point out, perhaps the biggest disappointment is to be found in Labou...

With the starting pistols finally fired on the general election campaign, there is going to be a long debate during the next few months on the economic plans of the two main parties. There have already been discussions across the airwaves and in the newspapers as to whether there will need to be higher taxes to deal with the austerity agenda. However, is there a way for politicians, even when austerity is still dominating public policy, to examine ways in which a reduction in taxation could benefit individuals, businesses and regions? With a higher dependency on the tourist industry than any other part of the UK, one of those tax cuts that could benefit the Welsh economy is a reduction in VAT on tourism to the low levels experienced in many other European countries. There are strict agreements within the European Union over the VAT rates governments can charge, although tourism is one of the few areas in which a reduced rate can be applied . As a result, many EU countries are cu...

They say that one swallow does not a make a summer and certainly one sunny summer does not make a vibrant tourism industry. However, the data on visitors released last week will make happy reading for a tourism sector in North Wales that has often been beleaguered by bad weather in recent years‪. According to the Great Britain Tourism Survey, visits from tourists in the UK to Wales grew by nearly 8 per cent in the first nine months of 2013. Spending by this group of tourists also went up to £1.4 billion, an increase of 12 per cent compared to 2012. This should not be surprising given the growing trend, with household budgets shrinking, to opt for the so called ‘staycation’ rather than going abroad on expensive holidays‪.‬ ‏ Yet that alone does not account as to why 8 million visits were made to Wales by British visitors from the rest of the UK and it is testament to the hard work of operators in the industry that they are delivering a quality tourism experience. Whilst Wale...

With the sun coming out more often than in recent summers, the tourism industry in North Wales must be feeling more optimistic than in previous years.  However, is it doing enough to attract the new growth sectors in tourism globally?  For example, a recent report from the UN World Tourism Organisation showed that visitors from China have become the biggest global source of tourism income in 2012, spending £67 billion whilst travelling abroad. This is 40 per cent higher than in 2011 and well ahead of both the Germans and Americans.  With a growing middle class, a strong exchange rate and the lifting of travel restrictions, this trend is set to continue.  However, it would seem that the UK tourism sector may miss out on this bonanza. According to the Tourism Alliance, the number of Chinese visitors was only 179,000 in 2012, an increase of only 20 per cent and well short of the target of 201,000. This means that the aim of attracting half a million Chinese v...

Given the importance of tourism to Wales, it was fascinating to read the Welsh Government’s 2013-2020 strategy for the industry. Of particular interest was their take on what actually differentiates Wales from the rest of the World and identifying the ‘magic sauce” that ensures tourism makes a growing contribution to the economy. Not surprisingly, the natural environment is seen as a central reason as to why visitors choose to take their holidays in Wales. Certainly, developments such as the opening of the 870-mile long coastal path will help to maintain this key advantage as will the growing importance of activity holidays, including cycling, horse riding, adventure sports, fishing and golf, which make full use of our coast and countryside. Allied to the natural beauty of our nation is its heritage and culture which makes us a distinct destination. This ranges from castles, both Welsh and Norman, to industrial attractions, such as Llechwedd Slate Caverns and the Big Pit, wh...

Last week, I spent four days camping with my family on a site just outside Barmouth which, to put it mildly, was a complete change from last year’s holiday on an Indonesian tropical island. Apart from the fact that I haven’t been camping since my days with the Pwllheli Sea Scouts over thirty years ago, I have previously failed to see any attraction in these outdoor vacations, preferring the comfort of a hotel room to the frontier excitement of a caravan site. Yet, despite my trepidations about the whole trip, I have to admit that I had a brilliant time, despite the changing weather we had. And while the road to Barmouth may not have been as life changing as the road travelled by Saul to Damascus, I can admit that I am now a convert to this type of holidaying. Part of the attraction was the fact that we had hired a classic 1967 VW Camper Van from a Mold-based company, Split the Difference. Yes, it was a tight squeeze for two adults and two children but it made the whole hol...