PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

This week’s economic data confirmed what everyone already knew several weeks ago namely that the UK economy had entered a recession during the second quarter of 2020, shrinking by over 20 per cent in the period April to June of this year.  Comparisons with other countries suggest that this could be the worst economic hit for any major economy from Covid-19 during this period although it is fair to say that the UK was also one of the last countries in Europe to lockdown its economy. As expected, the biggest impact has been on the accommodation and food services with estimates that output had shrunk by 87% across the three months with other statistics showing that only a quarter of businesses in this sector remained open as compared to four out of five firms in the rest of the economy. In addition, labour market data also showed that over the same period, employment in the UK fell by the largest amount since the last recession with the number of people in work decreasing by 220,000....

Every second Wednesday of every month, the Office for National Statistics releases the official employment and unemployment data for Wales. And every second Wednesday of every month, the usual group of economists and business groups come out with the general consensus that jobs are not being created within the economy thanks to the UK Government’s austerity measures. But if anyone bothered to look carefully at the detailed job statistics, then they actually paint a very different picture. Take employment, for example. One would think from all the doom and gloom that seems to pervade our media that no jobs were being created. Yet, the data clearly show that, since the current UK Government took power back in May 2010, employment in Wales has actually increased by over 35,000, compensating for the fall of 27,000 in those employed during the previous two years. In fact, 68.6 per cent of all working age adults are now in employment in Wales, which is the same proportion as whe...