According to the politicalbetting.com website, the Conservative lead is now thirteen points over Labour.
The poll is reported in today's Independent is the Conservatives biggest lead since August 1988. Whilst I agree this an outlier poll, it does represent the problems facing the current government and I certainly expect the Conservative lead to increase
What would this mean in Wales?
According to Anthony Wells, it would mean the Conservatives gaining seven seats namely Aberconwy, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Vale of Glamorgan, Brecon and Radnorshire, Newport West and Vale of Clwyd. Under such electoral conditions, both Gower and Delyn would also be winnable.
This would see my good friends Guto Bebb, Jonathan Evans, Suzy Davies, Matt Wright and, of course, the irrepresible Alun Cairns, elected to Westminster.
Of course, there is a long way to go until 2010 (the likely date of the election) but there is a stench of defeat about this Government already.
An interesting conundrum for Plaid Cymru is whether they would continue to support a Labour-led Coalition Government at the 2011 Assembly elections after their partners have received a drubbing in the polls. Indeed, will they stay with them that long?
For the Welsh Conservatives, we will need to think about the effect of a Cameron Government on Welsh policies, especially in relation to further powers. At least we will have a full time Secretary of State for Wales in the Cabinet.
Interesting times ahead.
The poll is reported in today's Independent is the Conservatives biggest lead since August 1988. Whilst I agree this an outlier poll, it does represent the problems facing the current government and I certainly expect the Conservative lead to increase
What would this mean in Wales?
According to Anthony Wells, it would mean the Conservatives gaining seven seats namely Aberconwy, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Vale of Glamorgan, Brecon and Radnorshire, Newport West and Vale of Clwyd. Under such electoral conditions, both Gower and Delyn would also be winnable.
This would see my good friends Guto Bebb, Jonathan Evans, Suzy Davies, Matt Wright and, of course, the irrepresible Alun Cairns, elected to Westminster.
Of course, there is a long way to go until 2010 (the likely date of the election) but there is a stench of defeat about this Government already.
An interesting conundrum for Plaid Cymru is whether they would continue to support a Labour-led Coalition Government at the 2011 Assembly elections after their partners have received a drubbing in the polls. Indeed, will they stay with them that long?
For the Welsh Conservatives, we will need to think about the effect of a Cameron Government on Welsh policies, especially in relation to further powers. At least we will have a full time Secretary of State for Wales in the Cabinet.
Interesting times ahead.
Comments
To make headway in Wales there needs to be a closing of the perception gap. I am more concerned that they make headway in the Assembly rather than Westminster though. I think a good opposition to get some rigour here.