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Darling or the IMF?

One the one hand, the Chancellor says that the UK economy is in a robust state to withstand any worldwide economic slowdown, whilst on the other hand, the IMF has quite different views. I wonder who the market will listen to?

More importantly, will Wales be hit more than any other region? Some studies have suggested higher levels of debt in Wales than other parts of the UK, the house market is probably more overpriced (as indicated by the recent dramatic fall last month in prices, second only to the West Midlands) and we are already the poorest region in the UK.

It is going to be a nervous few months for businesses and individuals.

Comments

Anonymous said…
More importantly, will Wales be hit more than any other region?

and mores the point do welsh politicians care, or even understand the problems business and households are facing or the connection between the two.

Economic Development they couldn't even spell it, never mind know what it is or how it can help Wales.
April 10, 2008 8:21 am
Anonymous said…
good blog, i read the articles and have some questions are there figures for Welsh growth from IMF or elsewhere, Dylan for the same period?

second point with the Welsh economy perfuming so poorly does this impact as badly on Wales as it does the whole of the UK?
April 10, 2008 11:07 am
Professor Dylan Jones-Evans said…
There are references to the performance of the Welsh economy throughout the blog. The actual figures/references are available from statswales or the Office for National Statistics.

It is an interesting question about whether the Welsh economy will perform worse or better than other regions.

Certainly, I would argue that with a bit of boldness and vision (and proper use of the hundreds of millions of additional european money), there is probably an unique opportunity to gain a real competitive advantage over other regions.

It all depends on whether the government has the balls to do things differently to what they have done for the last eight years when they have presided over a decline in prosperity.

As the great economists Fun Boy Three and Bananarama used to say, it ain't what you do, it's the way that you do it.
April 10, 2008 9:17 pm
Dr. Christopher Wood said…
Actually, imho, both are wide of the mark. Darling is way off and the IMF is barely close - 'my' prediction made some time ago predicts a drop of at least 10% in GDP, massive layoffs in the financial sector, devastating hit on the CoL (City of London) ... banks failing, etc. Bit by bit the prediction is "it's coming true I tell you, it's all coming true" ... a Rimmer line from Red Dwarf - aptly, the Cassandra (1999) episode. PS I predicted a housing downturn in 2006 and warned that speculators in the real estate business should reconsider their investments; the letter was published on icWales in 2006.
April 11, 2008 2:35 am
Anonymous said…
thanks for the information Dylan, I have only recently started getting intersted in this stuff and will check out the websites.

Thanks Again
Rachel
April 11, 2008 11:44 am
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