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A tale of two websites




Over on Ordovicius, Sanddef dismisses the proposition by the Western Mail's David Williamson that the Conservatives will make any serious gains at the next election in Wales.

However, on Vaughan Roderick's website, Karl the Bookie calls fourteen seats for the Conservatives:
  • Labour 15 (Aberavon, Swansea West, Alun and Deeside, Caerphilly, Cynon Valley, Neath, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Delyn, Islwyn, Merthyr and Rhumney, Ogmore, Pontypridd, Rhondda, Torfaen)
  • Conservatives: 14 (Aberconwy, Vale of Glamorgan, Brecon and Radnorshire, Carmarthen West and South Pembroke, Cardiff North , Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Clwyd West, Gower, Monmouthshire, Bridgend, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Wrexham)
  • Plaid Cymru: 5 (Arfon, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Llanelli, Anglesey)
  • Lib-Dems: 5 (Swansea West, Ceredigion, Cardiff Central, Montgomeryshire, Newport East).
Both are brave men to call the results for a general election at this stage of the cycle, especially given the state of the Labour Party.

The Plaid factor is also unknown i.e. will recent Plaid voters revert back to old allegiances at a general election as opposed to Assembly or local elections? Will those who voted for Plaid in the hope that they would gain power now vote tactically as their party as no hope of winning power at Westminster?

Also will Labour voters stay at home in droves, switch to the Conservatives or see the Lib Dems or Plaid as a lesser evil? Certainly, this will depend on whether the seats are in English speaking areas or further west.

There also a number of seats which may not revert to type.

Montgomery is certainly one, given the Lembit factor and Glyn Davies' strong campaign to date. Another is Ceredigion, where Plaid will be throwing everything at the seat and will expect to win it back.

Ynys Mon could be a different kettle of fish with a strong Welsh speaking Conservative candidate from a farming background, whilst Delyn saw a strong performance from the Conservatives in the last Assembly election which is being built upon by the same candidate for the general election.

Also, Cardiff West was strong for Plaid in the recent council elections and they could steal enough votes from Labour to let the Conservatives in via a three horse race, although they would need the right candidate to be selected for that seat to maximise any chance of winning.

Anyway, it's all conjecture until the General Election is called but I think we would agree that the political landscape, regardless of which opposition parties win the various seats, seems destined to change across Wales at the next election.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Over on Ordovicius, Sanddef dismisses the proposition by the Western Mail's David Williamson that the Conservatives will make any serious gains at the next election in Wales.

That's not true at all. What I dismiss is the use of UK polling and the Electoral Calculus to come up with a prediction for Wales.
July 30, 2008 5:46 pm
Anonymous said…
So tell us Mr Jones-Evans...
Are you blogging/crowing here as an economist or a Tory or a Tory economist or an economist who happens to be a Tory or a Tory who happens to be an economist?
You see, its all very confusing for readers.
Some clarification would be useful.
July 30, 2008 6:36 pm
Professor Dylan Jones-Evans said…
Sanddef - I read it differently but there we go. Anyway, rather than arguing over semantics, would be interested in your views on Karl the Bookie's predictions.

Anon 6.36 - the value of a blog is that you can be whatever you want to be and you seem to be the first of my readers (dare I use the plural?)to be confused about this.

Crowing? You've been reading a little bit too much J.M. Barrie methinks...
July 30, 2008 10:31 pm
Anonymous said…
would be interested in your views on Karl the Bookie's predictions.

Personally I think they're bunk. I don't see the Tories winning more than six seats in Wales, tops.
July 31, 2008 3:23 am
Anonymous said…
I may be intruding here, but I think it's far too soon to make predictions. A free market party is always going to find it an uphill struggle in Wales, thus Rhodri Morgan's 'clear red water.' We don't know how the parliamentry Labour party will respond and adapt over the coming year - after that the die will be, more or less, cast for the election. Nor do we know how the electorate's ('the Boss's') collective political will will develop. Nationialist parties appear to adopt leftish, reactionary policies in regard to the main political issues, but the Conservatists in Wales cannot be seen to be pushing against them as it would damage their 'Welsh' credentials - not very credible anyway some may say. So, much will depend on the economic situation in the run up to an election and who the voters believe - all the parties will offer hope of some sort.
July 31, 2008 8:37 am
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