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To GVA or not GVA, that is the question?

The Western Mail runs the story today that Wales is being robbed of £2 billion pounds per annum because of the inadequacies of the Barnett formula.

According to Lord Barnett himself,

"This week’s IPPR report compared spending levels against GVA (Gross Value Added) per head, a standard measure of prosperity. On the basis of the calculations, London and Scotland receive more than they would get under a needs-based formula, while Wales gets 14% too little – around £2 billion".

At long last, someone realises that we are getting shortchanged and I hope that Welsh politicians of all parties at the Assembly and Westminster will put this issue as their main priority.

However, can someone please tell the Assembly Government to stop being in denial about GVA as we will get nowhere unless they start facing the rela economic situation in Wales.

For the last few years, they have been rubbishing the fact that, according to GVA per head, we are the poorest region in the UK. In stead of accepting this, fighting for more funding from Westminster and developing a strategy for addressing this situation, they have become obsessed with finding other statistical evidence to counteract the real evidence about the economy.

For example, only last month, a spokesman for the Assembly Government said:

“Gross disposable household income (GDHI) directly relates to income levels across all households in Wales, and is therefore a better aggregate measure of living standards than GVA, which doesn’t include important components of income. The latest GDHI figures show that levels in Wales have increased by 32.3% since 1999 – the biggest percentage increase per head of population compared with all other parts of the UK – including London.”

So what is it going to be with a review of Barnett?

Are we going to use GVA/head which will not paint the Assembly Government in a good light but will at least get us the best settlement possible, or are we going to use other measures such as GDHI which will save some political face, but will mean far less money being allocated to Wales?

Comments

Anonymous said…
Labour wont even acknowledge that there are problems in the Welsh Economy to tackle and listening to Rhodri talking about the Barnett Review he doesn't seem that keen on a review, so i wouldn't hold out any hopes of anything changing before he goes.

Plaid Cymru seem split about pushing this hard Eurfyl ap Gwilym is trying at least but IWJ seems happy to go along with the Labour line on this not a good position to be in, when Wales is losing out financially and they can for once do something about it.
Anonymous said…
I'm not an economist but having just looked up the definition of GDHI and GVA per head it seems to me the latter is a measure of output and relevant to the economic standing of an area when taken on aggregate. Whereas GDHI would include benefits and tax credits which would of course have increased as the GVA drops, and explain why Wales has seen the biggest increase since 1999 - something to be proud of?
Now I might have got this all wrong so if there are economists out there tell me so because I want to understand.
Anonymous said…
Rhodri seems more concerned with headline figures than addressing the real concerns of the Welsh economy. His legacy will be one of squandered opportunity.
Anonymous said…
Dylan - why do you bother? You are public enemy number one within DET and they will never listen to what you say. Try a bit of reverse psychology and tell them they are doing the right thing - you never know, it may work!

Of course, when plaid finally realise that working with Labour won't work and need the tories, what are the officials going to do then?
With respect, Plaid have been banging on about the Barnet formula and the importance of a more 'needs based' approach for years. The Late Prof Phil Williams often had to dumb things down in order for us mortals to understand his statistical analysis.

It has taken longer than it should, but the One Wales Agreement has forced Labour in Wales to at least investigate this and even the Lords are doing the same. What I would like to know is what the Tories intend to do, if they(and let's face it they should) win the next Westminster election?
Clearly, Scotland will lose out but will Wales gain and what about certain regions of England who are also being short-changed?
Ian

My view - and I have already expressed this to Lord Roberts' enquiry - is that Barnett should be reviewed and it should be based on a needs-based formula which should see Wales gain.

Whether that becomes Conservative policy depends on Wyn's conclusions which I haven't seen. However, I do expect some quid pro quo for further powers and Barnett review which could involve a reduction in the number of MPs, which makes sense if further powers are transferred to Cardiff Bay.

As for Phil, I am sure he would be as frustrated as I am as to the lack of any progress on economic development in Wales.

One year down the line and NOT ONE of Plaid's economic policies developed by Dafydd Wigley and Eurfyl ap Gwilym have been implemented although Labour's failed policies which your party have embraced continue to be pushed through.

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