Having spent the last week on holiday in North Wales, I have had the opportunity to catch up with many friends working in the tourism and retail industry and to gauge the state of the sector during a difficult period for all Welsh businesses.
To say that things are worse than last year would be an understatement, with many complaining that their takings are dramatically lower as compared to the same time twelve months ago.
One small retailer I spoke to was over £6000 down on the same week last year and the sight of ‘to let’ and ‘for sale’ signs peppering the high streets of many small towns was enormously depressing. Another popular holiday letting firm actually had a house available next week during bank holiday week - a situation that they had never encountered since they began the business.
However, retail and letting outlets are not the only ones which are in trouble, with the restaurant and pub trade suffering as well.
For example, I spent Saturday evening having an excellent meal in a half full local restaurant that normally, in the last half of August, you would have to book days in advance to get into.
This anecdotal evidence is supported by statistics released last week from the Index of Hotels and Restaurants for Wales, which measures the output from these key sectors of the tourism economy and which, overall, account for 3.3 per cent of Welsh economic prosperity. It showed that for the period January-March 2008, the index for Wales fell by 6.4 per cent as compared to the previous 12 months. In the UK, the index rose by 2.7 per cent over the same period.
Whilst the accommodation sector output was 0.3 per cent lower than the previous four quarters, the restaurants and catering sector was 6.2 per cent lower and pubs 11.2 per cent lower. This shows the difficulties some key parts of the tourism industry experienced during the beginning of the year and which look set to continue throughout the summer.
These disappointing statistics could not come at a worse time for businesses struggling to be competitive during an economic downturn. Thanks to the hard work of operators in the industry, tourism has become one the jewels in the Welsh economy and it is critical that the funds are made available to support the sector and, mroe importantly, to market Wales as a world class tourism destination.
With a new Minister responsible for the industry, it may be time for the Assembly Government to re-examine its commitment to tourism tand ensure that it gets the support it deserves.
If not, then this could be a very long winter for tourism businesses across the whole of Wales.
Comments
You are one top-notch economist. You speak to one "small retailer" (and omit to say just how tall this person was) and you extrapolate from that single conversation an entire analysis and critique of the state of the Welsh tourist economy.
I spoke this geezer in Blaenau Ffestiniog last week, who said his business was doing quiet well AND the local chippy was absolutely packed. So, in my humble opinion, the Welsh tourist economy is in great shape and booming!
I hope you accept my contrary analysis as being as valid as the tripe you churn out.
Please go on holiday more often - your blog is simply hilarious!
Way to go Dylan! Way to go!
is struggling. Makes you think that these Civil servants who recently went on strike have just got no right to strike whatsoever. There pay rise was only just below the rate of inflation.
I, after spending my working life in North Wales in the sectors you refer to, could not agree more with you.
I am more than sure my fellow traders would agree to.
Last year was a bad year, mixture of weather and economic climate, and yes many people are down on 2007 as well, which makes it even worse. It made me laugh listening to the news on Thursday, confirming we are indeed heading for a recession, where have they been I wonder?
You quote an eating place being half full when it would normally be full, I could show you some that are closed at a time they would normally be open, such is the dire state they and the tourist industry is in.
Whilst you no longer seem to be in active Politics Dylan, it is gratifying to note that you are so spot on and pro active in your support of small business, my MP Betty Williams, probably has not a clue how businesses are fairing in her rather important constituency that encompasses so much tourism in it's geography.
I wonder if the assembly has much of a clue what is going on in the North with regards tourism, come to think of it does it have much of a clue at all what is going on in the north.
And mock the anecdotal evidence at your peril, for the small business people have a fair idea of the economic climate before any past figures are published.
Good on you Dylan for speaking out!
Here here!
Twats
Why is one led to believe to believe the blog owner posts anonymously with abusive put-downs and then wades in more measured tones in his own name :-) Hmmmm....
What ever way you cut it you tossers, the original post asserted something from an academic using anecdotes. How unscientific is that? Surely it's not much to ask from a Tory economist, to lay something more credible on the line? Or maybe it is?
Let's hope as Chairman of the Welsh Conservatives' Economic Commission, he reported his findings based on anecdotes too!
Here's one for you - I was at a garage in Bangor last Wednesday and i was told by the owner the Tories were still not to be trusted on the economy and they were scared to make their policies public because their sums still don't add up. Using DJE's studious, academic approach, that must be true :-)
By the way - I don't expect any reasoned argument in reply to this comment, just more abuse - so don't disappoint me now - you hear!
FACT
Does that not tell you something?
"The Times 29th August 2008. Retailers report the worst trend at the till in 25 years.
Retailers have suffered their grimmest month in a quarter of a century as wet weather and consumers' financial worries hit sales, new figures suggest.
Some 60 per cent of retailers said that their sales in the first half of August were lower than a year ago, while 13 per cent said they had risen, according to the CBI's monthly survey. The resulting balance of minus 46 per cent was a drop from minus 36 per cent in July and the lowest figure since the survey began in 1983".