PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

I have been moving house over the holiday period and only got the broadband back yesterday, hence the break from blogging. In catching up with news, I came across this letter by Dr Brian Gibbons, Minister for Social Justice and Local Government , who takes me to task over an article on business rates: I read Dylan Jones-Evans’ comment piece in your newspaper on December 22 about support for small businesses and business rates in Wales. I am concerned that your readers, particularly owners of small businesses, would be left with the impression that the Welsh Assembly Government is not taking action to support small businesses during these economically difficult times; this could not be further from the truth. In September this year I announced a £7 million package of business rate relief that will support smaller businesses across Wales. This additional funding has taken business rate support for small businesses to £20 million. Around 37,000 businesses across Wales already get help fro...

As 2008 comes to a close, one can look back and reflect that this has been an extraordinary 12 months that no-one one could have predicted. Certainly, there were a few of us who thought that the economy needed long-term restructuring but at no time did anyone think that the whole edifice of the financial system would come crashing down as it did this summer. Indeed, even when established firms such as Lehmann Brothers were being allowed to go to the wall, governments across the world remained in denial about the state of the global economy. Only when other banks started to come, cap in hand, to governments asking for public money to bail them out did politicians finally start to realise that the whole prosperity of the last decade had been built on quicksand that was slowly consuming those financial institutions in which millions had entrusted their savings. The millstone around the neck of individuals, businesses and even governments has been the general philosophy that debt is good f...

Last week, administrators for Woolworth’s stated that unless a miracle happened over the Christmas period, its 800 stores would close in the New Year with the loss of over 28,000 jobs across the UK and potentially another 100,000 to 120,000 jobs in related businesses. At the same time, it was confirmed that MFI would be closing its stores, with the loss of 1,400 jobs. Whilst we hear in the news of factories shutting down across the region, these are often hidden away on industrial estates outside town centres. Therefore, for many in Wales, the closure of Woolworth’s will be the first tangible sign that a deep recession is on the way as high streets find their biggest store boarded up and empty. Apart from the employment impact, economists are predicting that it could have a serious knock on effect in our smaller towns in the New Year as consumer footfall decreases and demand is depressed at the quietest time of the year. Indeed, the first few months of 2009 may end up being a bloodbath...

Having recently returned from Singapore, I have time to reflect on developments within this unique country and whether there are in any lessons for the Welsh economy? I have not visited the country for 17 years, and it has changed dramatically during that time and has developed a reputation for economic growth in key areas of technology and innovation. However, it would seem that not even Singapore is immune to the current turmoil enveloping the global economy. Just as I was touching down in Changi Airport, economists were dramatically revising their predictions for the Singaporean economy which, instead of the expected 4.6% growth in 2009 would now contract by 1.1% instead. Why has this happened so quickly? The challenge is one that many countries would be envious of, namely the existence of a highly-successful, export-based economy which, with a slowdown in spending across the world, is finding demand for its exported goods reducing. Indeed, Singapore’s ratio of exports to wealth is ...

Wrote the following piece just before I went to Singapore two weeks ago but forgot to post it. Since then, there has been a bit of an outcry , to say the least, about the decision to build the Gwynt y Mor windfarm. So I thought I would repost it to give my opinion on this new development. Recently, the controversial Gwynt y Mor development was approved by the UK Government. Lying just ten miles off the coast of Llandudno, opponents have consistently argued that it will have a serious negative impact on tourism along the North Wales coast whilst supporters have welcomed its contribution to sustainable energy targets. Having read the socio-economic impact report produced by the developers, I have yet to be convinced that it will have any significant economic benefit. Indeed, for a major infrastructure project that is estimated to cost over £1 billion, the economic arguments remain weak. In exchange for blighting the landscape for the foreseeable future, North Wales will not be guaranteed...

The term 'world class' or 'world leading' is one that is often bandied around in policy circles in Wales. Therefore, many in higher education have been waiting, with some anticipation, for the results of the latest Research Assessment Exercise which rates various departments according to their research excellence. The top mark of 4* equates to 'world leading' research and 3* to internationally excellent. Overall, 17 per cent of UK university departments fell into that 4* category and 37 per cent into the 3* category. There will be many ways that HE institutions will examine this data and I am sure marketing officers across the sector are working on ways to spin the results. However, it is worth noting that there is world leading research IN EVERY UNIVERSITY in Wales, and the trick is to build on this success across the sector. In particular, HEFCW and the Welsh Assembly Government must not forget the 4* researchers within our smaller institutions that, unlike ...

I have just come from the last plenary session of the 1st IPSIM symposium in Singapore , which examined ways in which we could improve innovation around the World. It has been a successful event and our plans for the Global Academy were exceptionally well-received within our session and, more importantly, a number of new ideas on how to improve the concept emerged from the discussion. However, what struck me more than anything else was how far Wales is behind the game in terms of innovation thinking and how we urgently need to up the ante if we are to get anywhere in this new world. We still have universities thinking that "science push" is the only way to get research into industry. We still have companies who have no clue about the concepts of open innovation and how it can make them more competitive. Finally, we have a cabal of policymakers who are ignoring the latest thinking in this critical policy area, closing its ears to calls to establish a strong innovation infrastr...

Last week, the UK Statistics Authority released their GVA assessments for the UK economy which, in layman’s speak, is the measure of the relative prosperity of each part of the UK. During the last few years, it has been the one statistic that Assembly ministers must dread more than any other as it shows whether Wales, as an economy, is performing better than the other UK regions. Unfortunately, as has been the pattern over the last few years, the statistics did not make happy reading. Yet again, Wales remains the nation with the lowest prosperity per head of population for the whole of the UK. Currently, the level of prosperity is 75 per cent of the UK average, roughly half of that found in London. Worst still, the gap is actually growing with the other regions and the ‘aspiration’ of hitting 90 per cent of the UK average, as stated by the Assembly Government, is further away than ever before. More depressingly, this has happened over a time period (2000-2007) when Wales enjoyed massi...

Troubling news in the Sunday Times this morning , where car unions estimate that up to 25% of jobs in the UK industry will be lost in the downturn. Given that there are around 25,000 employed in the automotive sector in Wales, that could mean around 6,000 jobs lost in that sector alone over the next 12 months. Also, it is worth noting that the First Minister, just over a year ago, was suggesting that Tata - the owners of Ford and Jaguar - would soon be moving their engineering plants to Wales . With Tata now wholly dependent on a bailout from the UK Government to save both these companies, that is now unlikely to happen (even if it were ever the case). Update: More worryingly is the exclusive news in the Indy on Sunday that Tata - which also owns Corus - may quit the UK unless regulations on carbon emissions are changed . With thousands of workers employed at Llanwern, Port Talbot and Shotton, this news could not come at a worse time. Hopefully, this is just posturing by the company fo...

Three weeks ago , I called for politicians to seek an urgent meeting with the European Commission to re-examine the strategy for spending its funds in Wales. At the time, I argued that as the economic situation had dramatically changed since the strategy was drawn up in early 2007 most of the actions contained in the strategy were no longer relevant to the current short-term needs of the Welsh economy. I also suggested that there was a very strong case to bring forward the £430m of spending earmarked for 2012 and 2013 within the European Convergence programme to support the Welsh economy as it goes through its darkest period. While I believe that talks are now ongoing with the European Commission, it is critical for those in discussion with Brussels to ensure that we gain access quickly to the hundreds of millions of pounds of funding needed to support the Welsh economy. More importantly, they need to ensure that it is then spent on addressing the major issue facing thousands of small ...

As discussed in an earlier posting , Professor Kevin Morgan has raised the issue of a new road being built through Bute Park which, if approved, would spoil one of the treasures of our capital city. More detailed information on the campaign can be found at http://no2lorriesinbutepark.blogspot.com/ According to the Echo, Kev has now organised a two-hour public meeting for this Friday (December 12th) at the University’s Glamorgan Building in Cathays Park, Cardiff to discuss the future of Bute Park, and both Cardiff council and the Heritage Lottery Fund have been invited. It will start at 5pm. For obvious reasons (I am 7,000 miles away!), I won't be able to attend the meeting but anyone else who is able to get there to support the saving of Bute Park please make the effort

I am off to Singapore for a few days to do some business, attend a conference and see how this Asian Tiger is performing during the current credit crunch. Will hope to blog when I get there....

Electronics giant Sony has announced , out of the blue, that it is to lose 8,000 jobs and close 10 per cent of its manufacturing sites. As yet, there is no specific news about the Bridgend plant but we can only hope that it is not one of those on the closure list.

At the third economic summit, the Secretary of State for Wales stated that "Wales had to prepare to a future upturn in the economy in terms of research, development, training and skills", Ironic, therefore, that when the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council ( EPSRC ) announce £250 million of funding for 44 Ph .D training centres in science and engineering, NOT ONE OF THESE WILL BE BASED IN WALES. Certainly, I would expect him to ask the Minister for Science why this is the case as, under the normal Barnett rules, at least £12.5 million should have come to Wales. Is there any wonder, as a recent report stated, that Welsh universities are underfunded when the none of the additional science funding made available by the UK Government comes to Wales. I would sincerely hope that one of our MPs - perhaps the Secretary of State himself - will ask why Wales keeps losing out in this way?

"It was the backdrop to Friday's third economic "summit" of assembly ministers, Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy and business leaders to review the latest economic situation in Wales. Following the meeting, the assembly government announced plans for a scheme to pay companies to retain and train their staff rather than make them redundant". Economic Summit, Dec 5th 2008 "Rather than watching impotently as firms lay off key workers, why doesn’t the Assembly Government set up a multi-million- pound key fund which enables businesses to temporarily move their workers, during the current economic crisis, onto skills training courses? Not only would this enable businesses to retain their skilled workers through government support over the next 12 months, but it would provide opportunities for upskilling and, critically, enable firms to be in a more competitive position when we emerge from recession.It would also provide a boost to the business and training support sec...

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders , there will be an estimated 75,000 repossessions next year. However, the Government's package of mortgage support will, according to the Housing Minister , only extend to around 9,000 homes. So what happens if you are one of the 66,000 who don't get the support you need to stay in your home? This looks like another ill-thought plan that could, like the 10p tax fiasco, unravel very quickly over the next couple of days.

Had a phonecall tonight from a friend who runs a company in Cardiff. He told me that Novelis - the aluminium manufacturer in Rogerstone, Newport - is reviewing its operations and that 450 jobs may be under threat. Not only that, he is one of many suppliers waiting for payment and is worrying, quite rightly, that he may end up with nothing if, as happened with Budelpack Cosi in Maesteg, the parent company puts the company into administration and just leaves. There are also worries that Corus in Llanwern may be under threat, despite assurances from Corus. As reported in the local papers last week , Corus is to halt most production at its Llanwern plant until at least March next year, with production run down to about ten percent of its current capacity. Worst of all, it could not give a cast iron assurance when full production would return, and that its aim of returning to full production in March was an aspiration. The FT reported earlier today that Corus is already applying for state a...

There is a story in today's Times which suggests " little support for the claim that the (Olympic) Games would produce significant economic returns or more people playing sport ". Worst still, the report said that " Leading economists and civil servants commissioned by the Prime Minister’s strategy unit and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport found that the main motivation for staging the 16-day event should be a morale-boosting national party ". Surely, £9.3 billion for a national party at a time when families and businesses will be paying more taxes is something that should be reviewed urgently by this Government. Certainly, this should become a 'national' Olympics rather than focusing just on London and should use existing facilities across the UK (including the Millennium Stadium and the Newport Velodrome) to get the cost to the taxpayer down. It would also mean that charities in Wales do not lose out as a result of the large increase in the...

As outrage and disbelief grows over the treatment meted out to Damian Green, there is talk that MPs will wear green ribbons during the Queen’s Speech to signal their disgust at the way that this whole affair has been handled. Those on the blogosphere are being asked to change the colour of their pages to show their support for Parliament and the right for our democratically-elected representatives to hold the Government (of whatever political colour) to account. I am more than happy to do so.

Plaid Cymru are very quick to accuse others of stealing their policy ideas. Given this, I was surprised by the story in the Western Mail this morning on detailed proposals for an EU-wide Recovery Plan aimed at stimulating the economy. These include a proposal that the spending of so-called structural funds like the £1.4bn Convergence aid programme for West Wales and the Valleys could be brought forward. Adam Price, who is going to Brussels, states that: "Front-loading spending on the Convergence programme would be of enormous benefit to West Wales and the Valleys. ...There is no point waiting until 2015 to spend the money when it could be very useful in the short term. Jobs are being lost and businesses are closing. At this time it is crucial to have as much money circulating in the Welsh economy as possible. We need to unlock some of the blockages that are preventing the money from being spent, and the Commission’s proposal will help us do that.” However, Adam and his party are a...