"Here be Dragons" is a fascinating article in the Economist comparing the current fortunes of the Conservative Party in Wales with the situation in Scotland.The fact that the bible of the finance world has bothered to examine the current political situation in Wales makes it worthwhile.
However,it is pertinent, with all the navel gazing that goes on within Wales on politics, to have an outsider's views on the reasons as to why the Welsh political landscape is changing:
"The first is that although the Welsh language flourishes (arguably because Welsh-medium schools offer a way for richer parents to enjoy academic selection), the region remains close to England, sharing, for example, the English press. (The Scots have their own newspapers.) And plenty of English newcomers are learning Welsh, drawn by those same good schools.
Migration matters too: hordes of English folk, greying and otherwise, have crossed the Severn Bridge, passing Welsh youngsters heading the other way. The Office of National Statistics notes steady migratory “churn”: in most of the past decade Wales has received and despatched more British migrants than Scotland, despite the latter’s larger population. Even Plaid no longer appeals to the “Welsh”, referring instead to the “people of Wales”.
As important, Plaid has proved much feebler than Mr Salmond’s SNP. The party struggles to pose as an alternative to Labour, not least because the two share power in the Welsh Assembly. Plaid’s pedestrian leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, lacks the prickly charisma of Mr Salmond, which may explain why recent polls give the Welsh party a measly 9% of the vote.
That has opened space for the Lib Dems (who have done well, grabbing control of many urban councils) and the Tories. Proportional representation in assembly elections has kept both parties visible, even when their popularity was low. For the Tories, especially, assembly elections helped them to rebrand their party as local, for example by fielding more Welsh-speaking candidates. A Conservative in Cardiff calls his assembly members “dynamic, modern, pragmatic…it’s a very important point that we can’t be seen as a rural English party.”
I am sure there will be some (particularly in one party) who will disagree with the article, but with a week to go until we choose a new government, at least it demonstrates that Welsh seats in the tightest general election for eighteen years could be having a disproportionate influence on May 7th when the ballot boxes are opened and, more importantly, the rest of the World may be finally taking notice.
Comments
NB Let me make a prediction. Next election after this one.....your no of MP's in Wales will be greatly reduced.
A few months ago you were complaining about the difficulties you had encountered in obtaining Welsh Language education for your own children in Cardiff. Was the problem that you just aren't rich enough?
Plaid Cymru= the Nasty Party
Ieuan who?
I do wonder if there is a link between the second and third paragraphs, though. If IWJ shared Mr Salmond's "prickly charisma", I wonder if there would be a reactionary vote from the hordes of English folk (can I use the word hordes? I think a Nationalist would be castigated for using that kind of language!).
While I would never vote for a British party in a London election, I think that the assembly has done wonders for the Tories, in that they have become much more Welsh at a devolved level. A Welsh right of centre party in the Assembly could very well get my vote.
PLAID=LABOUR=DISASTER
Plaid's 9% poll rating comes from the aftermath of the first TV leaders' debate. The day before the leader's debate their poll rating was 14% which would generate their best Westminster result ever.
So to suggest that the coalition with Labour is responsible for the 9% is clearly wide of the mark. Particularly as the Economist's own graph backs me up.
In fact, I was just about ready to hate the article and blog about it until I read the final paragraph, which I completely agree with and which Dylan has omitted from his blog post-
"Whoever triumphs in Westminster, cuts in public spending are bound to cause resentment in both regions. In Wales a chance will soon come to voice that in a referendum, due within a year, on whether its assembly should get more primary lawmaking powers. In Scotland Mr Salmond will hope to channel anger against London in a long-planned referendum on full independence. Support for that has been waning recently, but it could yet rebound. For the Tories, whatever their hopes in the short term in Wales and Scotland, the longer-term outlook may be grim."