A new poll released today in the Western Mail suggests that the decline in Labour’s fortunes is less than what is being recorded across the UK.
“According to the paper, the poll of 1,000 voters in Wales, conducted by Cardiff-based Research and Marketing Plus, showed Labour on 37.5%, Conservatives on 23.5%, Liberal Democrats on 21.0% and Plaid Cymru on 10.8%.
….but the party appears to have made up ground since April 19, when a YouGov poll for ITV Wales – in the aftermath of the widely hailed performance in the first TV leaders’ debate of Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg (pictured below with Gordon Brown) – put Labour’s support on 33%, just four points ahead of the Lib Dems at 29%, with the Conservatives on 23% and Plaid on 9%.”
On the surface, this seems like good news for the Labour Party but there is a simple issue in that it would seem that the organisation carrying out is not a member of the British Polling Council (BPC).
Therefore, anyone in the polling business, or who follows political polls on excellent websites such as the UK Polling Report and politicalbetting.com, will attach little credibility to the results.
Indeed, as the British Polling Council itself points out:
“Opinion polling causes different problems for researchers from those in other kinds of survey research, and the more experienced the polling organisation, the more likely it is to have encountered these problems and developed means of dealing with them. New organisations do of course come on the polling scene and prove to be every bit reliable as more established pollsters. However if a poll is produced by a new organisation which has results very different from the general trend of recent polls, it would be advisable to wait to see what other polls say before placing too much reliance on this one".
Therefore, if the poll is to be taken seriously, then Research and Marketing Plus should follow the rules of the BPC – and provide:
Of course, we only have six days to wait until the real results come out, and then we will see if, as many on the ground suspect, Labour’s vote in Wales will have collapsed as badly as it has across the rest of the UK.
“According to the paper, the poll of 1,000 voters in Wales, conducted by Cardiff-based Research and Marketing Plus, showed Labour on 37.5%, Conservatives on 23.5%, Liberal Democrats on 21.0% and Plaid Cymru on 10.8%.
….but the party appears to have made up ground since April 19, when a YouGov poll for ITV Wales – in the aftermath of the widely hailed performance in the first TV leaders’ debate of Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg (pictured below with Gordon Brown) – put Labour’s support on 33%, just four points ahead of the Lib Dems at 29%, with the Conservatives on 23% and Plaid on 9%.”
On the surface, this seems like good news for the Labour Party but there is a simple issue in that it would seem that the organisation carrying out is not a member of the British Polling Council (BPC).
Therefore, anyone in the polling business, or who follows political polls on excellent websites such as the UK Polling Report and politicalbetting.com, will attach little credibility to the results.
Indeed, as the British Polling Council itself points out:
“Opinion polling causes different problems for researchers from those in other kinds of survey research, and the more experienced the polling organisation, the more likely it is to have encountered these problems and developed means of dealing with them. New organisations do of course come on the polling scene and prove to be every bit reliable as more established pollsters. However if a poll is produced by a new organisation which has results very different from the general trend of recent polls, it would be advisable to wait to see what other polls say before placing too much reliance on this one".
Therefore, if the poll is to be taken seriously, then Research and Marketing Plus should follow the rules of the BPC – and provide:
- A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation;
- Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published;
- A description of the weighting procedures employed including weighted and unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data, whether or not such breakdowns appear in any analysis of sub samples;
- An e-mail address for further enquiries as it is assumed that all other reasonable requests for data necessary for readers of the polls to assess the validity of the data will be answered.
Of course, we only have six days to wait until the real results come out, and then we will see if, as many on the ground suspect, Labour’s vote in Wales will have collapsed as badly as it has across the rest of the UK.
Comments
The Western Mail must be kidding. Labour is going to lose Llanelli.