After one of the most tumultuous years in the history of this nation, Welsh voters will be going to the polls on May 6th to choose the next Welsh Government. Given what has happened in the last twelve months, it will be critical to have strong policies to help the economic recovery and to ensure that we do not fall further behind the rest of the UK in terms of prosperity and employment after the Covid-19 pandemic.
So what have the main parties to offer in terms of the Welsh economy? That is what this column will be examining over the next three weeks prior to the Senedd election and there is no better place to start than by examining some of the promises from the current incumbents in the job, the Welsh Labour Party.
Given that it has been in government since 1999, it may be understandable that the party is following a ‘steady as she goes’ and ‘safety first’ approach rather than the radical call to arms that some would argue is necessary at a time of crisis especially for an economy that will be one of the slowest in the UK to recover.
And whilst meeting a definite need, nothing is safer than focusing on road and rail projects with most of the economic pledges being on improvements in transport including the completion of the dualling of the Heads of the Valleys road, plans for metros in North Wales and Swansea Bay, and further investment in major new bus infrastructure projects.
Whilst there is a nod to the recently published Digital Strategy for Wales and the upgrading of the digital and communications infrastructure, it is surprising that there is not more detail provided on priorities given that the digital agenda - from better skills to improved broadband to boosting 5G provision - is as important to the future of the Welsh economy as the investments promised in rail and road improvements.
However, there are three particular pledges within the manifesto that should be hard to disagree with whatever your politics.
As this column as pointed out on several occasions, dealing with the consequences of the pandemic for young people will be critical. Given this, the pledge to create a new Young Persons Guarantee that gives everyone under 25 the offer of work, education, training, or self-employment (including apprenticeships) is possibly the most important proposal in this manifesto in terms of a post-Covid recovery.
Of course, the devil will be in the detail but this must not end up being the usual political fudge if we are to avoid having a lost generation of young people and it is critical that it utilises the best expertise and examples globally to ensure that it really does make a difference.
The second is the promise to generate “thousands of jobs in a low carbon house building revolution” which could have a significant impact on achieving a zero carbon Wales and create a vital new industry. Again, this needs to be done properly through adopting world class approaches and ensuring a strong partnership with those Welsh businesses, especially those that have sustainability at the heart of everything they do, to deliver this programme.
Finally, there is the proposal to help develop towns across Wales with potential policies ranging from supporting local supply chains, helping small businesses move into vacant shops and developing new remote working hubs in communities to increase footfall in town centres.
Whether this in itself will be enough to help some of the hardest hit sectors on the high street - such as retail, food and accommodation - to sufficiently recover is obviously dependent on the approach to be taken by the new Welsh Government, the resources available and, more importantly, co-operation with the business community. Unfortunately, there is no mention at all of any post Covid recovery fund to support small businesses to get back on their feet after the problems of the last 12 months and little on help for the tourism industry that has been decimated because of recent closures.
Of course, a political manifesto can also be judged by what it does not promise and it’s disappointing that there is almost no mention of the key factors that drive modern economies such as entrepreneurship, innovation and productivity.
As the manifesto states, Wales has been at the sharpest edge of deindustrialisation over the last four decades and devolution has given an opportunity to re-build the economy and develop a modern and productive infrastructure.
However, it mustn’t also be forgotten that the Labour Party has been in power in Wales for nearly twenty-two of those years with the added bonus of billions of pounds of European funding that no other part of the UK (with the exception of Cornwall) has had access to over that period.
Given that Wales still has one of the lowest business startups rates in the UK, one of the lowest levels of R&D investment and the worst productivity of any of the UK nations and regions, it is difficult to see how this situation will be changed through this manifesto.
Yes, there are some critically important future initiatives in terms of helping young people, the green economy and supporting town centres but a real opportunity has been missed in this manifesto to correct some of the deep-rooted structural weaknesses in the Welsh economy at a time when we need innovative, enterprising and productive businesses more than ever.