The latest poll, this time in the Observer, shows that the Conservatives are maintaining a healthy lead over Labour.
Ironically, whilst an increasing number of people believe that the UK is merging from recession, this is not benefiting the incumbent at No 10, who is getting blamed for getting us into the mess in the first place. This mirrors the 1997 election when John major's Government, despite improvements in the UK's economic fortunes, lost heavily.
So what would such a poll mean for Wales if a general election was held immediately? As it is the silly season for another week, I put the latest poll through Martin Baxter's electoral calculus. The results were:
Conservatives 16 seats (+13)
Labour 16 seats (-13)
Plaid Cymru 5 seats (+2)
Liberal Democrats 2 seats (-2)
Independent 1 seat (no change)
That would be a seismic shift in the politics of Wales with even safe Labour seats such as Newport East changing hands.
Whether that will happen depends, of course, on a variety of factors including voter turnout by Labour, hardwork on the ground by local Conservatives and the status of the incumbent MP (e.g. Lembit Opik).
Still, with the general election only nine months away, we don't have long to wait.
Comments
As Dylan said, this is the silly season and he is perfectly entitled to put these through Baxter's calculations. I doubt if he really thinks that 16 seats will be won by the tories. Personally, I believe that the tories will only gain around seven seats in Wales, but that there could be rogue results such as Montgomery.
And what on earth has his biog got to with this blog entry?
This sick mind is probably the same sick person who sent me letters from false addresses, including a funeral parlour, during the last Assembly election.
I just can't work out what sad and twisted individual sits there following every comment on this blog.
Get a life, you pathetic excuse for a human being, If you want an audience, then go somewhere else as it ain't happening on this blog.
Chris
Lisa - thanks for your kind words but that is exactly what this sick individual is trying to do.
A stalker is defined as "pursuing or approaching someone stealthily, or to harass or persecute someone with unwanted and obsessive attention.” The technological extension of stalking is cyberstalking.
If this individual really has an issue, then he could contact me directly - I am sure he knows my address and email. I would be more than happy to discuss his 'issues' with him although being the coward that he is, I doubt if that is going to happen. Fortunately, I also have his ISP address and his provider (BT).
Back onto message: I believe Glyn is undertaking an excellent campaign at the moment but I would like to see the Conservatives centrally put some more resources into the fight to win the seat. Winning Montgomery along with Brecon and Radnor could herald the beginning of the end for the Lib Dems as the party of rural Wales.
Conservatives 42
Labour 26
Lib Dems 18
This is roughly the same as previous polls and shows that labour are stuck in the mid 20s whilst the Tories are in the low 40s.
The breaking story on Libya may change this, especially if Cameron can come out and lead the condemnations against this government's veil of secrecy