As the UK and the devolved administrations slowly start to release businesses from the lockdown imposed at the end of last year, it is worth examining the current state of the UK business community and the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.
The latest analysis from the Office for National Statistics of responses to their voluntary fortnightly business survey shows that despite restrictions, the proportion of UK businesses currently trading has increased from 71% in early January 2021 to 75% in late March 2021. Whilst this seems positive and is similar to the level seen last July, it is considerably lower than the 84% that were trading back in December 2020 prior to new Covid-19 restrictions.
Of course, that varies massively by industry and businesses based in other service activities – such as hairdressers and other beauty treatment activities – had the lowest percentage of businesses currently trading at 17% as a result of the required closures due to coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions.
This compares to other sectors which, whilst not operating at full capacity, have nevertheless stayed largely operational during the pandemic including manufacturing (84% trading) and construction (83% trading).
Whilst only 46% of accommodation and food service businesses were currently open, this did actually represent a significant increase on performance at the beginning of the year, suggesting that more firms in this sector had decided to trade after the Christmas lockdown which had affected many in the sector.
What is interesting is that more businesses seemed to have adapted to their current circumstances with the percentage experiencing a decrease in turnover decreasing from 46% in January 2021 to 40% in mid-March 2021 and is now at its lowest level since data collection began last year.
Indeed, the percentage of currently trading businesses experiencing an increase in turnover, compared with normal expectations for this time of year, has risen from 6% in early January 2021 to 10% in mid-March 2021 and is now in line with levels seen in late September 2020.
Again, certain sectors have done better than others. For example, nearly 60% of information and communications businesses have had no change in their turnover. On the other hand, accommodation and food service activities industry had the highest percentage of businesses with a decrease in turnover (of 72%) although this is considerably lower than what was being experienced at the beginning of the year. However, this has yet to be as low as the 57% recorded in August 2020 when there were lighter restrictions on the sector and the Eat Out to Help Out initiative had been launched to help food retail businesses.
That is not to say that there aren’t ongoing problems with the cash position of a considerable number of businesses despite the generous funding provided by governments. For example, whilst the percentage of businesses with less than three months’ cash reserves was stable at approximately 27% between June and October 2020, this had increased to 31% since November.
Again, it is not surprising that this was most prevalent in sectors such as other service activities which were banned from trading with an increase in those that had three months’ cash reserves or less since the beginning of 2021.
There have also been increases in the proportion of the workforce who are currently on furlough - from 11% in early December 2020 to 19% in mid-March 2021. This means that approximately 6 million people in the private sector are currently essentially being ‘employed’ by the Government although this seems to be largely concentrated in a number of sectors.
For example, the arts, entertainment and recreation industry had seen the proportion of its workforce on furlough leave between early December 2020 and mid-March 2021 increase from 37% to 58%. A similar increase was experienced by the accommodation and food service activities industry (from 33% to 51%).
What is also interesting about the data on working arrangements is that 81% of employees in ICT firms and 71% of those in businesses undertaking professional scientific and technical activities are working remotely. Whilst over two thirds of workers in manufacturing and construction are back in their normal place of work, it may be the case that some service-based sectors will not return to the same working practices as the economy opens up.
Therefore, this economic analysis yet again demonstrates that not all businesses are in the same boat when it comes to the impact of the restrictions that governments have imposed as a result of the Covid 19 pandemic.
Certainly, these sectoral differences need to be taken into account as we emerge out of the economic downturn of the last few months and it is imperative that governments look to change their strategies towards helping all businesses towards a more targeted approach that focuses on those that the greatest support especially those firms based in arts, entertainment, recreation, food and accommodation.