PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

It would be an understatement to say that the last three years have been challenging for businesses in the UK. Brexit, the Covid pandemic and the war in the Ukraine are just three occurrences which have had, and will continue to have, significant long-term implications for those running companies across the country.  These ‘one-off’ events are compounded by other longer-term trends which Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) must build into their company strategies going forward, including climate change, the continuous search for talent and the impact of new technology on the way they do business. Understanding how business leaders are reacting to the changing global economic situation is the focus of the latest 2022 CEO Outlook from global accountants KPMG which examines the perspectives of 1,325 global CEOs to provide a detailed insight into how they view the business and economic landscape changing over the next three years. In terms of the economy, the survey suggests that 85% of gl...

Earlier this month, this column examined some of the reasons behind the so-called “Great Resignation” phenomenon that had seriously affected the US economy and examined some of the reasons as to why employees were leaving their jobs following the Covid pandemic. Interestingly, a new study on mental health in the workplace by the accountants Deloitte found that 28% of employees have either left in 2021 or are planning to leave their jobs in 2022, with 61% citing poor mental health as the reason they are leaving.  Why is this happening now? The report seems to suggest that job insecurity due to the impact of the pandemic meant that many had delayed switching their employers or leaving to start a new position or a new business.  However, the opportunity to do something different in a buoyant jobs market  as opposed to continuing with long hours and increased stress in their current position has resulted in nearly 30% of the workforce leaving their current employer. And at a ...

During the pandemic, the events industry across the UK was hit hard as venues were shut, Covid rules were brought in to restrict attendance and there was a general reluctance by sponsors and businesses to get involved in a situation where uncertainty and cancellations were the norm. Whilst there was a shift to online events and meetings and there was some success in making this transition, this did not make up for the lost revenue from holding live events across the UK. Given that much of the sector was essentially stopped from working during the last two years, it is easy to forget that the event industry is a significant contributor to the UK economy, with a recent report submitted to the Department of Digital Culture Media and Sport estimating that the industry generates £84 billion every year with conferences and business events generating over £18 billion in direct spend annually. Of course, nothing beats attending a live events as opposed to sitting in front of a computer as one ...

During the last two years, there have many changes to the way we work and live that will now become permanent features of our daily lives going forward. This ranges from a greater focus on local purchasing, the increasing use of delivery services and possibly the most significant of all, the growth of flexible working. Whilst working from home was initially a legal requirement across the World to deal with the health challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, as countries have opened up again, many employees have begun to realise that they did not want to go back into the workplace every day. For example, the “European Coworking Spaces During Pandemic” report recently suggested that the commute to the office will reduce with 78% of respondents expecting that there will be increase in the number of workers will want to work close to home with a further 73% expecting that there will also be a growth in home working. Another study from Work From Home Research showed that 68 per cent of those qu...

One of the most important economic reports that is published annually is also one that is often overlooked by many politicians and policymakers despite its findings being relevant to the vast majority of businesses in the UK. The “State of Small Business Britain” report from the Enterprise Research Centre (ERC) reviews a range of research and analysis to present an annual review of the trends affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK. For 2021, it is not surprising that the report has focused on the challenges that many small firms have faced in coping with COVID-19 but it also examines the opportunities to strengthen the sector as we finally emerge from the pandemic especially in terms of what is termed the ‘Triple Transition’ namely business digitalisation, adoption of net zero practices and the upgrading in productivity. What does the report tell us? Not surprisingly, one of the major findings is that SMEs have been in financial difficulties during 2021 with an i...

Just as we thought that 2021 would return to some sort of normality, reports of a new mutation of Covid emerging from South Africa changed all of that overnight and during the last few weeks, the so-called Omicron variant has spread like wildfire across the globe.  Fortunately, the initial data from those countries affected first suggests that whilst it is more infectious, it is a milder illness that largely resembles a common cold and, more importantly, the highly successful vaccination programme along with booster jabs has ensured higher levels of protection. Despite this, and largely because of the dearth of any real information about the variant at the time, governments around the World rushed to impose new restrictions which ranged from closing borders to restricting access to hospitality for unvaccinated citizens.  Here in the UK, a different approach was taken by each of the devolved nations and the UK Government with Wales imposing restrictions that some have argued ha...

 Earlier this week, data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation showed that there were 1.7 million active job adverts in the UK during the last week of August with around 193,000 new job adverts posted during those seven days.  In fact, its research shows that the number of new jobs being advertised has remained high over the last three months with Wales having the highest active job postings during this period. However, as the press has highlighted recently, all businesses (but especially those in the hospitality and haulage industries) have struggled to get the workers they need with some having no option but to reduce their operations as a result. Of course, the jobs market is still not as clear cut as it was prior to the pandemic, and we will have to wait and see how the gradual closure of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme – where employers could furlough those employees at risk of redundancy due to the pandemic – will pan out in terms of creating opportuniti...

As restrictions have been lifted across the UK, there is an expectation that many employers will be looking to bring their workers back to the office after nearly eighteen months of working remotely.  But will everything return to normal or has the pandemic irrevocably changed the way we work and, more importantly, where we work? One indication as to the way that the post-pandemic future of work may pan out come from freelancing platform Upwork, which recently surveyed 4000 adults in the USA to understand the views of office workers on remote work and flexibility. The results are fascinating and, if repeated here across the Atlantic, present some key challenges to both employers and policymakers. With the economy reopening, it is not unsurprising to find that the survey suggests that whilst two thirds will be returning to the office for some of their time. However, only a quarter are excited about this compared to a third who were not.   This result had more to do with wh...

Over the last seventeen months, the closure of the UK economy which resulted in the largest economic slump for over 300 years should, by all logical assumptions of the impact of such events, have resulted in massive negative changes in household incomes and unemployment. Yet the annual report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies on “Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality in the UK” shows that contrary to expectations, unemployment, real earnings growth, arrears on household bills and the use of foodbanks were actually at similar overall levels as compared to the pre-pandemic situation for the UK as a whole. As the authors note, this is an “astonishing outcome” given what has happened to national income since March 2020 but also highlights the positive impact of government policies such as the furlough scheme and the uplift in Universal Credit during this period.  For example, there has been very little rise in those out of work with only 300,000 more people being unemployed or ec...

As the economy slowly opens up, there is a growing consensus that the world of work will not return to the pre-pandemic practices and there will be a ‘new normal’ in employment practices as a result of the changes in everyone lives since March 2020. That view is backed by a recent report from accountancy giant PWC which surveyed over 2000 workers in the UK about their hopes and fears for this year and found that they wanted new skills, flexible working options and jobs that make a difference. Whilst this seems like good news for the economy, it is not all positive with only 37% of UK workers feeling positive about how the future world of work is likely to affect them as against 50% globally.  Most UK workers also believe that the jobs that are around today will still be here in the future although they understand that the very nature of work is changing with greater flexibility and more purpose-driven jobs. For example, the majority of UK workers are demanding a mix of home and in-...

  As we slowly but surely emerge from the restrictions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is becoming clear that whilst some things may return to what they were prior to last March’s first lockdown, other elements of our lives will have been changed irrevocably.  In particular, the fact that nearly all of us have had to stay at home for most of the last fourteen months means that our relationship with the locality in which we live has probably changed forever. This phenomenon was explored in a recent report from the thinktank Demos and financial business Legal & General that looked specifically at post-pandemic places. This was done through a poll of 20,000 adults in Britain during December 2020 and was followed up two months later with a series of focus groups The results are fascinating and reinforces the view that the way we perceive at ‘place’ has changed and actually become stronger during the pandemic which, of course, will cause a change in behaviour into the mediu...

  As the UK and the devolved administrations slowly start to release businesses from the lockdown imposed at the end of last year, it is worth examining the current state of the UK business community and the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.  The latest analysis from the Office for National Statistics of responses to their voluntary fortnightly business survey shows that despite restrictions, the proportion of UK businesses currently trading has increased from 71% in early January 2021 to 75% in late March 2021. Whilst this seems positive and is similar to the level seen last July, it is considerably lower than the 84% that were trading back in December 2020 prior to new Covid-19 restrictions. Of course, that varies massively by industry and businesses based in other service activities – such as hairdressers and other beauty treatment activities – had the lowest percentage of businesses currently trading at 17% as a result of the required closures due ...

Following the last recession, it was young people who bore the brunt of the unemployment crisis that was inevitable following the economic downturn.  Whilst a report from the IMF has recently suggested that the long-term economic damage from the pandemic will not be as severe as that left by the financial crisis more than a decade ago, many believe that young people will still be those most affected by the decline in economic activity. Much of this has to do with the fact that there tends to be more young people employed in those sectors such as wholesale, retail, accommodation and food services that have been hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, they have experienced the highest drop in working hours of any age group and a massive decline in the vacancies available. As a result, there may well be a longer lasting impact on opportunities in the labour market for young people despite an expected economic recovery. Earlier this month, a report from The Prince’s Trust an...

How has the Covid-19 pandemic changed the prospects for workers around the World?  This was the focus of the “ The Future of Jobs Report ” from the World Economic Forum which brings together the views of business leaders with the latest data to create an understanding of the current situation and the future outlook for jobs and skills. A worrying trend for those in work is the finding that, in addition to some of the displacement in the labour market that the pandemic has created over the last eleven months, there are indications that any lost jobs will not be replaced as companies move to accelerate the adoption of automation.  For example, half of the businesses will be increasing the rate of automation of jobs, more than one-quarter of employers expect to temporarily reduce their workforce, and one in five expect to permanently lose employees. This raises the spectre of a jobless recovery that will be very different to previous recessions. However, the good news is that des...

During the last eleven months of the pandemic, there has been considerable debate on whether the economy will be different when we finally emerge from our government-imposed exiles in our home offices.  Phrases such as “build back better” and the “new normal” have been bandied about by commentators and columnists in an attempt to perceive a better world for all of us as businesses re-open.  There is increasing evidence that workers across the country will be reluctant to go back to the daily grind of commuting although it is also clear that zoom meetings are no substitute for the human interactions we all crave when it comes to working with others. Whilst the demise of the office may be premature, the Welsh Government has recently suggested that 30% of people will work from home in the future. That will present considerable challenges to those councils that, over the last decade, have focused their efforts on attracting large companies to relocate thousands of workers to offic...

With the majority of us still working from home during a dark and cold January, it may difficult to envisage that in less than one hundred days and barring any postponement from Cardiff Bay, we will be voting in the elections for the Welsh Senedd. As the political parties start to formulate their manifestos, various organisations, pressure groups and other bodies are putting together a list of their priorities that the next Welsh Government will hopefully enact as part of their programme. One of the most important of these submissions has come from the Welsh university sector that, during the last five years, has been responsible for developing world class research and innovation, delivered skills to people of all ages and backgrounds, and made a significant contribution to the economic and societal wellbeing of Wales. As the nation looks to recover from the challenges that we have all faced as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, higher education institutions are aiming to continue thi...

After what many would call the most surreal four years in American politics, some sense of normality was restored to the United States last week when Joe Biden was elected as the 46th President on the steps of the Capitol Building in Washington where only two weeks earlier, supporters of Donald Trump had begun their protests against the results of the presidential election. In what is still clearly a divided country politically, the new president will have a mountain to claim to bring people with deeply contrasting opinions to even listen to each other, never mind creating a consensus which many can live with. However, that challenge – which was at the core of the inauguration address - will have to take second place to the immediate economic challenges faced by Mr Biden, challenges that will have an impact not only on his own nation but also the rest of the global economy. Clearly, his first priority will addressing the Covid-19 pandemic and the damage it has caused to the American ec...