PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

Given the growing uncertainty about the future of the UK economy, it is worth examining the opinions of those small to medium sized employers (SMEs) that are responsible for much of the growth in jobs and prosperity over the last few years. One of the best sources for this information is the annual Small Business Survey carried out by the UK Government, which was created nine years ago and surveyed over 15,000 UK small business owners and managers in 2018.  The results are fascinating and provide a useful barometer as to how the small business sector is growing despite some of economic issues that may be facing this country at a time when we will soon be leaving the European Union. First of all, the study shows that 22% of SME employers employed more people in 2018 than a year previously. This compares with 64% who employed the same number and 13% who employed fewer people. The largest proportional job growth by firm size was for medium-sized businesses, which had increased employm...

One of the key debates by both the remain and leave camps during the recent EU Referendum was whether trade links would be damaged or enhanced by leaving the European Union. Now that the decision has been made to leave the European Union, there remains much uncertainty over what will happen, That is why David Davis - the new Brexit Minister – has set out his rationale for a new approach to trade policy for the UK. He made the case that leaving the EU gives this country control over its own trade policy and therefore opportunities to sell directly to key partners around the World. And with 60 per cent of our exports going outside of the EU, the fact that countries such as the USA, Australia, China and India are already ready to talk to the UK about individual trade deals with the UK is a positive step in the right direction. But if we are to take full advantage of this brave new world of Brexit, then we can only be successful if we maximise the opportunities from internatio...

I was recently honoured to be invited by Alun Davies, the Honorary Consul for Hungary in Wales, to have lunch with Péter Szabadhegy, the Hungarian Ambassador to the Court of St James. It was a wonderful event, especially in meeting some of the Hungarian immigrants who had come over to Cardiff in 1956 and had made such a success of themselves in their adopted country. Our conversations also took me back to the various research projects I undertook in Budapest, including one of  the first analyses of academic entrepreneurship within this former Warsaw Pact country in the 1990s. Since then, Hungary has developed considerably and the Ambassador, who hails originally from the private sector, described the enterprise and growth that has grown his country’s economy over the last few years. Hungary is certainly doing better compared to some Western European countries with inflation low, wages rising and unemployment falling from 10.2 per cent in 2013 to 7.1 per cent in 2015. Som...

As would be expected, there seems to be considerable emphasis within government policies in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay on encouraging new start-ups and large so-called “anchor” companies. Whilst these are both vitally important to the economy, there remains an oft-neglected sector of our business community that deserves the attention of politicians in London and Wales, namely mid-market firms. That is why the latest research from GE Capital and Warwick Business School on this sector makes fascinating reading for those wishing to influence the growth of our economy. Indeed, this third report on these mid-market firms shows, yet again, how important they are to ensuring the economic recovery of the UK through generating new jobs and developing overseas markets For international comparisons, the study defines mid-market firms as those companies with annual turnover between €20m (£16m) and €1bn (£800m) and their impact is considerable. For example, the research shows that ...

No term used to epitomise the British economy more than “trading nation” and so, given the desperate need to increase trade to drag the country out of its current economic doldrums, it was good to see our most senior politicians at Westminster and Cardiff Bay recently zigzagging their way across the Asian continent. As is usual in these high-level trade missions, much of the press focus is on the links with multinational companies that have invested strongly in this country. Yet, perhaps more important to the future of the Welsh economy is the potential of indigenous businesses and their ability to sell goods and services internationally. So how is Welsh business performing in this regard? According to the most up to date statistics from the Welsh Government, Wales accounts for just over five per cent of the international trade of all UK regions, which is higher than its share of businesses across the economy. Indeed, exports worth £13.4 billion were generated in 2011, an incre...

Given the recent spats between the devolved nations and the UK Government over the decision by David Cameron to exercise the UK veto over the EU treaty in December, there have been numerous statements on how this will have an effect on Welsh trade with the European Union. According to a recent statement from the First Minister of Wales , "some 50% of exports from Wales are to the EU". Yet recent data from the Welsh Government's own statistics suggest that it is considerably less than that, as figure 1 below shows. In fact, only Scotland had a lower proportion of exports with the EU in the third quarter of 2011. Will this mean that any downturn in the eurozone will affect Wales less than the majority of other UK regions? Certainly, as figure 2 demonstrates, there has been a gradual long term decline in the proportion of Welsh exports that go to EU countries since 1999.  The export profile of Wales has changed considerably since devolution and whilst Europe is still ...

Arrived in Singapore yesterday afternoon for a four day jetlagged visit. Given the fact that the island economy is still seen as one of the growth regions of the World, it is always revealing to examine what has been going on in recent months. Certainly, growth has been outstripping that of the UK, with the Straits Times reporting that Singapore's economy is expected to grow by around 5 per cent in 2011. Despite this good news, the expansion of the economy is not expected to last and is expected to slow down next year - growth is estimated at  anywhere between 1 and 3 per cent. The last time Singapore experienced such weak growth was in 2008 when the economy expanded by just 1.5 per cent (although it contracted by 0.8 per cent in 2009). However, in calculating the state of the economy in 2012, the Ministry for Trade and Industry has not factored in downside risks to growth, such as that of a worsening debt situation leading to a full-blown financial crisis in...