PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

Following recent data releases, economists are forecasting that house prices will fall by up to 20 per cent in the next two years. However, some are not taking this warning seriously. Indeed, here is the reaction from estate agents in Wales , one of whom says that the house prices are going UP! Get real guys. As someone who has been avidly researching the house market in Cardiff for the last six months, I can tell you that the reality of falling house prices has yet to filter through into actual sales prices, many of which are the same as they were in late 2007. Given that IMF indicated , only last year, that house prices were overvalued in the UK, what has been the role of estate agents in fuelling this increase, especially as the 'finger in the air' pricing approach that seems to be going on is completely different to the reality in the market?

Last week, I visited Estonia which, twenty years ago, didn’t exist as a democracy or as an economy separate from the USSR. Since then, this small country has experienced staggering economic growth, much of which is attributed to a strong education and training regime focused on the future needs of international and indigenous businesses. Like many other Nordic and Scandinavian countries, it sees education as the key competitive advantage in the race to create a high value knowledge-based economy. Compare this to the situation we find ourselves in Wales today. With thousands of jobs being lost in the manufacturing sector, the last thing we can afford to do is to cut the funding to our universities, schools and colleges at a time when it critical to develop the skilled workers of the future who will grow our indigenous businesses and act as the magnet for high value overseas firms. Yet, perversely, the Welsh Assembly Government has just done that. Only last week, college principals ac...

Excellent article by Nick Cohen in the Observer yesterday arguing that the Labour Party has become the new elite. "Labour has been marching through the institutions for 11 years. With the exception of the armed forces, it has not allowed one state body to stay in the hands of natural conservatives. The Church of England, the BBC, the judiciary, the senior Civil Service, the trusts, agencies and quangos all have a pinkish hue. Even chief constables sound like Harriet Harman". Do you think the same is true in Wales? Certainly, as far as I am aware, there aren't many old style conservatives (or new style conservatives, for that matter!), in charge of any of our Welsh institutions.

Last week, we had a keynote meeting in Cardiff between leading academics and policymakers from across the UK. This reported on the different aspects of data generated from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and whether it could provide a way forward for research in the field of enterprise and small business. After considerable discussion of the results from the project, one of the areas highlighted for further development was improving the access to the different research and policy initiatives being undertaken within the various countries participating in the GEM project. Indeed, one of the strengths of this worldwide project is the ability to undertake large comparative studies across nations. For example, there have been various reports written on informal investment, high growth entrepreneurship and innovation and earlier this month, another ground breaking study was published by the GEM Consortium which may have serious implications for policy in a range of countries. The G...

Just about to give my presentation at the conference. It will examine the myths surround the activities, potential and abilities of immigrants from the new accession countries within the Welsh and UK labour market. Anecdotal evidence often suggests that this group possess a strong work ethic and are a highly entrepreneurial group of individuals. Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), we examine the propensity of immigrants from the new accession states to enter self-employment compared to those individuals born in the UK or in the original EU-15 countries. We actually find that a higher proportion of immigrants from the accession countries display an intention to start a business in the near future and consider entrepreneurship as a good career choice. However, this does not translate into a higher level of entrepreneurial activity, which may reflect the findings that accession country immigrants are no more likely than the rest of the population to perceive good st...

Academics at the Management Centre at Bangor Business School claim that they are ready "to step in to help senior banking staff learn how to avoid the sort of mistakes which triggered the credit crunch which crippled global financial markets over the past year". You could argue that is a case of shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted, especially as the "top business school in Europe in the specialist field of finance and banking studies" (their words not mine) has already been undertaking research and training programmes for the banking sector for the last thirty years, However, the conundrum is that this statement seems to suggest that the courses run from Bangor have previously failed to prepare thousands of banking staff for such eventualities. Indeed, one has to wonder what they are teaching if, as one of their own members of staff states, "the top management of banks has not fully understood these financial products created lower down in the o...

Another 150 well-paid manufacturing jobs going at Flexsys in Wrexham which, according to the Daily Post , is down to the strength of the Chinese economy. We could be in for a very difficult year unless the Assembly Government starts thinking seriously on how it is going to retain quality employment in Wales.

Off to Estonia first thing tomorrow to spread the message about Welsh enterprise research at the Nordic Conference on Entrepreneurship so blogging will be intermittent.

Earlier last week , I mentioned some of the data coming out of the Assembly regarding tourims spend. This was supported by other data from the Index of Hotels & Restaurants for Wales , which showed that for the latest four quarters, it fell by 8.7 per cent compared with the previous four quarters. The UK index rose by 4.0 per cent over the same period. The accommodation sector output for the latest four quarters was 5.3 per cent lower than the previous four quarters. In addition, the Restaurants & Catering sector output for the latest four quarters was 13.4 per cent lower than the previous four quarters. With a recession likely to hit the industry hard during this summer, especially given the rising prices of food and fuel, it would seem that the decision to scrap the Wales Tourist Board (WTB) and bring it under direct ministerial control could have been a major strategic error. This follows a report by the Assembly’s audit committee last month which highlighted the fact that t...

Last week, we had the announcement that £36 million would be provided to create 8,000 firms within the Convergence Fund area of Wales during seven years from 2008 to 2013. On first glance, it looks impressive but actually represents a significant reduction in funding for encouraging new enterprise in both funding and targets. Indeed, the Entrepreneurship Action Plan, over a period of five years, spent £60 million of Objective One funding to help create 14,000 new firms in Wales. Therefore, with entrepreneurial activity remaining static for the last four years and well behind other small nations such as Ireland, it is surprising that the Assembly has not only failed to match its previous efforts, but that it lacks the ambition to emulate other successful enterprising economies. Given that there is going to a slowdown in the economy over the next couple of years, this is hardly the response that was needed.

Last Thursday, I was honoured to be able to attend the Cardiff University Innovation Network annual awards for innovation. Since its creation in 1996, the network has held events for over 7,200 people and is now the first port of call for businesses that want assistance from the University. It was an excellent evening and showcased what could be achieved when academia and industry work together for a common cause. The winning projects made me proud to be a Welsh academic and were as good an example of collaborative working as you would find in any institution in the World. For example, the link-up between Atkins Middle East and Cardiff University’s Welsh School of Architecture has led to the design of a low energy and low emission high-rise building in Dubai. To give you an idea of the scale of the problem to be solved, a challenging target was set to reduce the normal energy consumption of this structure by 65% and water consumption by 35%. All of this was to be achieved whilst retain...

News from the Assembly shows that visitors spent £159 million less in Wales last year than in 2000. More significantly, visitor spend in Wales last year was £280 million lower than the year before the Wales Tourist Board was abolished. Visitor spend in Wales from tourists was £3.4 billion in 2000, falling to £3.2 billion in 2007. In fact this is lower than at any time since 2000. Perhaps the most depressign aspect is the 18 per cent decline in UK staying visitors, given that much of the recent advertising campaigns (which I personally think are excellent) have been focused on this group.

Alun Ffred today gave support for the Assembly Government's rate relief scheme in the Western Mail (and which is discussed in the article below). His response was, to say the least, predictable (in attacking UK Conservative policy from eleven years ago) and disappointing (in that he defended a decision essentially made by a Labour Minister before May 2007). Whether it was also hypocritical, I will let others judge, especially given what he said twelve months ago before his party joined the OneWales Government: "Four hundred Gwynedd businesses are set to lose out due to the Labour Assembly Government’s new business rate relief scheme. Among those concerned is Geraint Thomas who has just set up a picture gallery in Caernarfon. Alun Ffred says: The total loss in Gwynedd could be £2m. These changes show how out of touch New Labour is with more rural parts of Wales". or Alun Ffred Jones AM, Plaid’s spokesperson on the economy said that it was vital that the Assembly Governmen...

At a time when the small firm sector in Wales needed support, the Assembly Government has come up short yet again. Conveniently waiting until after the council elections, the Local Government Minister announced plans to make only minor changes to the business rate relief scheme in Wales , changes that would make no real difference to the majority of small firms struggling in a difficult business environment. To cut a long story, this will now mean that all businesses in Wales with a rateable value of under £2000 will receive a 50 per cent discount off their rates, with a further discount of 25 per cent for those with a rateable value of between £2000 and £5,999. However, for thousands of businesses, this still represents a massive tax rise. This is because under the rural rate relief scheme abolished by Labour last year, those firms with a rateable value of up to £6000 previously qualified for a 50 per cent discount in many parts of Wales. Therefore, many businesses will still be payin...

An insightful article in the Swansea Evening Post last week. In a question and answer session with the paper, Ieuan Wyn Jones that "there was 'no question' of a vote on further Assembly powers being brought forward to this year or next year". This follows the news that a referendum at the same time as the next Assembly elections has already been ruled out. Paul Murphy doesn't think that there will be a referendum before the general election , due in 2009 or 2010, but said there was still time after an election, if it was felt it was necessary. Clearly, if 2009 is already ruled out, it will be a great risk to have the Assembly referendum on the same day as the probable general election date in May 2010 due to the same uncertainties over confusion at the polls that have already ruled out the referendum being held on the date of the Assembly elections in 2011. Given all this, it is likely that if the convention reports on time and that there is no seismic shift in...

Very different headlines from the two main newspapers in Wales this week. The Western Mail yesterday came out with the story that" Welsh house prices predicted to rise ". On the other hand, the Daily Post stated that " Hundreds facing eviction in North Wales ". Which paper is right? Given that you had the Welsh Assembly Government spinning the Western Mail's line, I can guess the reality!

Report by Bloomberg News stating that EDF, the French power company, has been buying up land around Wylfa in preparation for the construction of the second nuclear power station. This follows interest by a US-Japanese company in operating any second nuclear power station on the Island. Do they know something we don't? More importantly, how will the council respond to this if, say, an anti-nuclear party forms part of the administration?

What value does the Assembly place on higher education? A report from HEFCW higher education funding body has found that higher education in England received almost £70 million more public funding in the academic year 2005-06 than Wales and over £40 million more in 2004-05. In response, Jane Hutt , the Welsh Education Minister said: "The Welsh Assembly Government funding is not the only source of funding for higher education institutions. They have the ability to draw monies from other sources". In the meantime, the Guardian league table on universities shows that only Cardiff is in the top twenty five universities in the UK. Four HE bodies are in the bottom twenty. 22 Cardiff 57 Bangor 63 Swansea 64 Glamorgan 67 Aberystwyth 76 UWIC 97 Lampeter 106 Newport 112 Swansea Institute 115 Trinity College, Carmarthen 118 North East Wales Institute Given Ms Hutt's reluctance to fight for more funding for the sector, does anyone seriously think this situation will change in th...

There have been some interesting responses to the article below on Buying Welsh. However, the situation is going to get far worse for small Welsh firms, if the article below from the Contract Journal is anything to go by, especially in a sector which is going to be hardest hit by the slowdown in the economy. As usual, the Assembly spokesperson's response is completely pointless. Welsh builders accuse HBG, Interserve and Laing O'Rourke of flouting rules (07 May 2008) HBG, Interserve and Laing O'Rourke have come under fire from local Welsh builders for carrying out small contracts via the £680m Welsh Health Estates framework deal. Chris Wynne of Wynne Construction, a family-run building firm in Bodelwyddan, North Wales, has written to the Welsh Assembly and his local Denbighshire health trust, claiming that the three Designed for Life framework members are delivering works below the deal's £5m threshold. He points to a £13m contract recently awarded to HBG by Conwy & ...

Darren Miller, AM for Clwyd West, makes an excellent point today regarding procurement from public bodies. Using the example of the national flower of Wales, he has found that welsh councils are getting supplies of daffodils from England or Holland rather than from Welsh companies. Most surprising is the fact that Gwynedd Council, of all places, have been using suppliers outside Wales of Wales for bulbs to grow the country’s national symbol. This blog has made the point , on a number of occasions, that purchasing by public bodies is a key tool in helping small businesses at a local level . Local authorities, in particular, should be looking to source goods and other services as locally as possible. More importantly, Richard Arnold of the Really Welsh Company said that the prices his company has recently discussed with certain authorities in Wales apparently compare very favourably with the Dutch imports or Cornish supplies. He also believes that his welsh grown daffodils will offer s...

You have got to hand it to Albert Owen, MP for Anglesey for maximising his political advantage in the Daily Post today . Taking advantage of the increase in Anglesey's quota of Labour councillors at Thursday's elections, he has now assumed the mantle of the saviour of Wylfa Nuclear Power Station. Albert is looking to extend the life of the plant beyond March 2010. Ironically, as some cynics might argue, this would be two months before the final possible date of the next general election. Regardless of politics, Wylfa is a highly emotive issue on Anglesey and will play well on the doorsteps, where jobs and the economic state of the Island are probably the key issue. Helping to save 500 jobs, even for a few years, certainly won't do Albert's re-election chances any harm.

Whilst local politics does have its own quirks and may not be a pointer to any General Election results, it is worth reflecting how the political landscape has changed last week in North Wales. Predictably, Labour took a beating, giving up 26 seats (or a fall of 9 per cent in representation), with their only silver lining being the five new Labour councillors elected on Anglesey . The Liberal Democrats did very little, ending up with one seat less than in 2004, although probably retaining the leadership of Wrexham . Even though they did not win any additional seats, Plaid Cymru , due to Labour’s decline, are now the largest party outside the independents in North Wales, Indeed, it would have been a good night for Plaid if Llais Gwynedd had not been as successful in capturing twelve seats in their heartland. The party that can justifiably claim to be the winners are the Welsh Conservatives, gaining 24 extra councillors or an increase of eight per cent. With their political renaissance...

One of the things I have got in the habit of doing when I am in the USA is to buy a swathe of business magazines from the first newsstand I come across. Last week, I managed to get my fix of Inc Magazine, Fast Company, Entrepreneur Magazine and a range of other periodicals. However, it was an article in Business Week on technology entrepreneurs that caught my eye. The magazine had undertaken a study to examine the typical profile of the technology-made entrepreneur in the USA, surveying over 650 executive officers and heads of product development in 500 engineering and technology companies established from 1995 through 2005. The results were, if nothing else, surprising to read. First of all, the age old myth of technology-based entrepreneurs being young students, sometimes dropouts, in their early 20s who start such companies as Google, Microsoft and Apple was shattered. Instead the study found that the average age of founders was 39, with twice as many being over 50 as were younger t...

Last blog of today as I have other things to do! Just a small question after last night's results. Why on earth is Plaid Cymru continuing to prop up Labour in the Welsh Assembly Government?

Commentators such as Sanddef have pointed out how we have done well in council seats within the key constituencies we need to win at the next election, such as Aberconwy , Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan . However, we must also point to the successes in Denbighsire , which bode well for Matt Wright in the Vale of Clwyd , especially given the way that the Conservatives are winning in Rhyl . Also, the gains in Flintshire will make Delyn a potential win for the next elections. The chances that the Conservatives may actually be part of a coalition that controls Newport also makes Newport West a strong candidate for 2010. However, the real congratulations must go to Glyn Davies and his team in Montgomeryshire . This is a seat that isn't even on the 'official' target list but, due to the hard work on the ground by its candidate and the local constituency party, has certainly become the one to watch at the next general election. It is a lesson for all of us in that sea...

Just when you think it couldn't get any better.... Boris Johnson has been elected Mayor of London. He received 1,168,738 first and second preference votes compared with Ken Livingstone's 1,028,966. Boris’ victory follows a series of large gains in this week’s elections, which left the Conservatives with our best local government showing since 1980: - 256 seats and 12 councils were gained, including Bury, Nuneaton and Bedworth, and the Vale of Glamorgan - 44 per cent of the national vote - There were gains all across the country, from Southampton to Sunderland, Cardiff to Great Yarmouth - In-roads were made into Labour heartlands like Rotherham and Barnsley See David Cameron's reaction here

It hasn't been a bad day for the Welsh Conservatives, has it? Whilst the spinmeisters for the other three parties are using statistics to show how they have 'won' (even Carwyn Jones was claiming that Bridgend showed how Labour had not done as badly as the press was saying!), these are the statistics as they currently stand for the Welsh Conservatives 56 per cent increase in the number of councillors since 2004 62 new councillors, more than the Lib Dems and Plaid combined Retained control of Monmouthshire with five additional seats Won control of the Vale of Glamorgan Largest party in Conwy (+8 seats) Largest party in Denbighshire (+9 seats) Second largest party in Cardiff and Largest increase in seats of any party in Cardiff, Torfaen, Powys, Pembrokeshire and Flintshire One seat won in RCT! Sixteen seats won in Newport, just behind Labour. These results show the progress the party is continuing to make, especially in those areas we have to win at the next general election.

No, I have not been up blogging all night! I went to bed fairly early and just woke up to make a cup of tea and couldn't get back to sleep. However, what results to wake up to! According to the latest BBC projections: Conservative 44% - 4% higher than last year and eight new councils Labour 24% - the worst figure in 40 years Lib Dem 25% - 1% lower than last year, 4% lower than 2004 BUT pushing Labour into second place I think we can now put the doubters to bed regarding the Conservative revival, especially in terms of winning seats in the North of England. This result is Labour's worst in decades. More importantly, this momentum will continue to build up to the next election. The key now is to firm up the policies that will form the base for the next Conservative Government and ensure that we are elected not because we are not Labour, but because we offer a coherent agenda for the future. In Wales, the main headlines to date are as follows; - Labour has lost control of Merthyr,...

Yes, I am a Llo Llyn and proud to be so. It is the most beautiful place in the World and it is where my heart will always be. I am therefore ecstatic that the Times has now recognised the place in their Green Spaces award. However, how could they ignore my home town of Pwllheli? Shame!

Just when I was about to bemoan the lack of interest by higher education in the field of entrepreneurship (in contrast to the situation in the US as reported in this excellent article in the New York Times ), two new chairs in entrepreneurship are advertised at the University of Manchester and City University in London. Just a shame that Welsh institutions are not doing the same....

Mixed news from the TV industry for Wales today. There is a story that the filming of the BBC series Casualty may be moved from Bristol to cardiff, losing £10 million for South West England which, of course, will then go to the Welsh economy. However, there is news that whilst the Prisoner is to be remade by ITV, Portmeirion will not be used as a location with rumours that it will be filmed in Libya instead. I know which one I would prefer to be filmed in Wales! How can anyone imagine the Prisoner without Portmeirion. It's like having Dr Who without the Tardis and I am sure it will impact upon the potential success of the new series.