PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

It was once said that few things are more pleasant than a village graced with a good church, a good priest and a good pub. Whilst the first two, along with our post offices, have been disappearing from towns and villages all over the UK for a number of years, it looks like they are now going to be followed by the centre of community life across many parts of Britain: the local pub. By the time you read this column next Saturday, it is estimated that another thirty six pubs will have called time on their businesses and shut their doors for good. Whilst the Xmas period may be a stay of execution for some, it is expected that in during quiet period after the New Year many more will close. Camra - the Campaign for Real Ale - has predicted that 7,500 pubs will vanish by 2012 and many villages are, for the first time in centuries, without the local pub at the heart of their communities. Of course, it is easy forget when you are leaning on the bar with your pint of Brains in your hand that yo

Whilst accountants, pundits and politicians are poring over the finer details of the PBR in preparation for the Commons debate, the Conservative front bench should cast their eye over a briefing paper produced by the Adam Smith Institute on raising personal allowances. It is, quite simply, an excellent proposal that is succinctly summarised by the author , Tom Clougherty, on the Adam Smith blog. Raising the personal allowance to £12,000 would take 7 million low-paid workers out of the income tax net altogether. People earning the minimum wage or less would pay no income tax at all. To the average worker, this would be like getting an extra £1,730 a year in gross pay, leaving them £100 per month better off and reversing the substantial falls in disposable income that have occurred over the last 12 months. If the Chancellor wanted to give this measure retrospective effect for the current tax year, it would mean a one-off £1,800 'Christmas rebate' for the typical dual-earner fami

In the last half an hour, MFI - the UK's largest furniture store - has gone into administration and, according to Robert Peston , Woolworth's will do the same tonight. A quick scan of businesses directories indicate that there are 63 Woolworth's shops in Wales and 9 MFI stores, employing around 1500 people directly. As discussed earlier this week , any closures will have a massive impact on consumer confidence in the short term and will seriously hit retail company shares tomorrow morning, possibly causing one or two other chain stores to go into deep trouble.

Look at the right hand graph from the office of National Statistics regarding the country's debt. Up until 2001, the Treasury followed Ken Clarke's previous spending plans but then went on a spending spree after the election that has resulted in the hole that we find ourselves in at the moment. Of course, whilst the graph is bad, it doesn't show you that the net debt will probably hit 57 per cent by 2013. Hindsight, of course, is a wonderful thing and I wonder if anyone within the Government is now wishing they had stuck to the original spending plans for 1997-2001?

That is the amount that the UK Government has said that it intends to borrow over the next five years in the pre-budget report. Will it work? Only time will tell but with unemployment rising, personal debts at record levels and house prices falling, will £2.50 saved on every £100 spent really make a difference? I don't think so....

With all the focus on the Chancellor's VAT plans, it is worth noting that the CBI has put forward its own recommendations on how to stimulate the UK economy: The CBI is calling for: - An improvement in the flow of capital available to the corporate sector - Measures to prevent trade credit insurance cover being withdrawn from some companies - Urgent action to change auditor's reports to cut the number of companies being branded with "going concern uncertainty" status - Modest tax measures to support corporate cash flow - Measures to support small businesses, including a special low rate of employer NI contributions and abolition of the planned rise in the rate of corporation tax paid by small companies - Fiscal stimulus focused on employment including a temporary reduction in employer NI contributions - An acceleration of public capital spending programmes, including the Building Schools for the Future programme; - Government support for corporate pension provision

Whilst the press have been leading with the expected 2.5 per cent cut in VAT, another event may well have a bigger effect on consumer confidence. There is talk that unless creditors, predominantly banks, agree a last minute deal, Woolworth's will close their doors this week. This will result in 30,000 direct job losses and potentially a further 100,000 to 120,000 jobs in other related businesses. In Wales, that probably amounts to around 1500 direct jobs across the country. The closure of this iconic retailer, which has a shop in almost every high street in the UK, in the run-up to Christmas will have a major effect on shoppers and the retail industry as a whole. It will also be the real test, despite rhetoric from the Treasury, of whether banks in the UK are prepared to support British business.

With further massive job cuts announced over the last week, this time at Hoover in Merthyr and Bosch in Miskin, it is becoming clear that the short sharp recession that many of us had anticipated is not going to materialise and that the downturn will be deeper and far worse than expected. Unemployment in Wales is certain to hit 100,000 by Christmas and will probably be as high as 150,000 by the summer of 2009, well above the level for the last recession of the 1990s. Currently, it remains popular amongst some politicians to argue that this is a global problem and that nothing much can be done in Wales to deal with the economic slowdown. Instead, only fiscal policies on interest rates and taxation will have the desired effect in stimulating the UK economy. Given this, it is easy to forget that we have devolved responsibility for economic development and therefore can focus this nation’s resources specifically on our particular industrial strengths and weaknesses. More importantly perhap

First Hoover, now Bosch with another 200 jobs lost, and it is still only Wednesday. God only knows how many more will shed jobs before this year is through but rumours are that over 80 major companies have already contacted the Assembly to say that they are in serious trouble.

The one paper which politicians of all parties fear the most (and therefore court the most) is the Sun, Britain's most read daily. Given that much of the media attention, especially on the BBC, has focused very much on the Brown agenda for unfunded tax cuts, many will be surprised to read the Sun Says column piece which was published this morning. "At last, the Tories seem to be finding their voice. They have decided to put hard-working taxpayers first — and dump their daft promise to match Labour’s bloated spending. The cost of running the State has DOUBLED to £600 BILLION a year since Labour took power. Yet, far from using the good years to save for a rainy day, the cupboard is bare. Taxes have rocketed, with little improvement in health, education or transport. Welfare bills remain high, despite the creation of three million new jobs. House prices are collapsing. The Pound is in freefall . Our only option is to take the axe to the bureaucratic monster strangling our job-cre

With sterling falling to nearly record levels against the pound, many are saying now is the time for our manufacturing industry to step to the mark and take advantage of this situation as home produced goods become cheaper to export. The problem in Wales is that, at this rate, we won't have any serious manufacturing capacity left, apart from Ford, Corus and Airbus (and don't hold your breath on any of those three keeping their bases in Wales). The proposed closure of the manufacturing facilities at Hoover is not only a major blow to Merthyr but, because of its iconic nature, could be a fatal one for the future of manufacturing in Wales. It is the one Welsh politicians feared the most and could be the first domino to herald many other closures between now and Christmas. As for the solutions to this issue - read my posts from February 2007 and October 2006 as they give some idea of what the Assembly Government should have done months ago.

Three excellent articles by Eddie Barnes in the Scotsman Philip Johnston in the Telegraph and Alice Miles in The Times on what David Cameron should be doing to emphasise the main differences with the policies of the current UK Government. About b*****y time too.

Imagine if someone decides to give you £1000 with the expectation that they expect you to spend it over the next few months, mainly on consumer goods and services. However, the catch is this. Sometime over the next five years, you will have to repay that debt and another £500. So what are you going to do? (a) Spend it all and worry about it later? (b) Use it to pay off your existing debts which are at their highest levels ever? (c) Invest the money to pay off the £500 you will owe later? The answer to this question, more than anything else, should determine the fiscal strategy to be adopted by the Treasury on Monday. Unfortunately, it may not be the answer the Chancellor wants to hear. With personal debt out of control, rapidly rising unemployment on the way and the fact that the price of the average house falling, option (a) - which is critical to the Government’s proposed strategy - is probably not the one that the majority of the working population will choose at this time. However,

If the Conservatives want to hit back hard at this Government's wasteful spending record whilst at the same time examining how to reduce government expenditure to fund tax cuts for the UK economy, they should rush down their local bookshop to buy the book " Squandered " by David Craig. It is a damning indictment of the billions of pounds of waste in public expenditure perpetuated by this Government (and this was even before the current financial crisis took place). p.s. try the Taxpayers Alliance calculator if you want to see how the UK Government has presided over tax increases during the last eleven years.

I was interviewed yesterday for the Wales on Sunday on the growing economic problem in Wales where I thought that unemployment would hit 125,000 by next Easter. However, could it get much worse? An article in the Telegraph suggests that at least 1.5 million jobs could be lost over the next two years. If this applies to Wales, it could add another 75,000 to the unemployment register by 2010, taking the levels to an unprecedented 160,000 by the end of next year.

Last week, I discussed entrepreneurship in Wales with the director of Prime Cymru , one of the Prince of Wales’ charities offering economic support for the over-50s. Demographically, older workers are becoming a critical issue within the UK economy and the statistics clearly show that the over-50s will become the most significant part of the labour force over the next two decades. For example, the number of over-50-year-olds in the UK is expected to rise by a quarter from 19.8 million in 2005 to 24.5 million by 2020, and by 2030, this number will have reached 27 million, which equates to 40% of the total UK population. Of course, this is not reflected in their presence in the employment market. For example, last week’s Labour Market statistics showed that 33.6% of those aged between 50 and retirement age in Wales are economically inactive, mainly due to a history of relatively depressed manufacturing economies and a higher than average number of sick and disabled people. Indeed, Prime

According to last night's South Wales Echo , Cardiff Council intend to desecrate one of its historic landmarks by building a new road access for lorries into Bute Park in Cardiff. Professor Kevin Morgan of Cardiff University, one of the world's leading figures on regional development, has rightly condemned this scheme. He said "I am furious about this. I find it astonishing that the council, which is supposed to safeguard the interests of Cardiff, could be so arrogant and foolish as to go ahead with such a scheme. I am trying to organise a debate here in the university about this. It’s a big issue. Cardiff likes to project itself as one of the leading cities in Britain in terms of sustainability, husbanding its resources, and caring for the well-being of its citizens. To build a road into Bute Park, Cardiff’s greatest asset, to facilitate the entry of articulated lorries is the complete antithesis of that philosophy. Old ways of measuring cities like GDP and population si

Hat tip to Alwyn regarding the call by Councillor Gwilym Euros Roberts of Blaenau Ffestiniog to upgrade the Conwy Valley Line. Interestingly, two years ago, I made this part of my manifesto for the Assembly election in Aberoconwy , as reported in the Daily Post, although obviously I couldn't focus specifically on Blaenau's needs as it was in an other constituency . I also discuss the potential of upgrading an all-Wales railway line here . Of course, nothing has happened since and I sincerely hope that Gwilym has more success than I did in pushing this agenda forward "Candidate in Rail Investment Call" October 3rd, 2006, Daily Post A TORY Assembly candidate called yesterday for a pounds 26m investment to upgrade the Conwy Valley rail line. Dylan Jones-Evans, who is standing in Aberconwy in next May's poll, said the Welsh Assembly government was missing an opportunity to increase the prosperity of the region. Improvements on the line to allow more frequent

According to the latest Labour Market statistics , Wales - as this blog has predicted - is well on the way to hitting 100,000 out of work by the end of the year. In addition, the number of economically inactive is going up as well. And the reaction from the Assembly Government? Well, according to the BBC , a spokesman said "the numbers were not a surprise, and the impact of the downturn on the car and steel industries had had a big impact on Wales. Today's figures are a statistical confirmation of what we already knew from all the anecdotal evidence available showing a serious down-turn in the economy," he said." Obviously, they didn't read this article in February on the problems within the labour market or this one in August on the worsening state of the UK economy.

The unemployment figures for the UK are out at 9.30am this morning and should show a significant rise. In Wales, last month saw an increase of 10,000 in those claiming benefit and, given the way businesses are losing jobs all over the country, unemployment may well hit 100,000 by the end of 2008. However, it is easy to forget that this is only the tip of the iceberg and, as the academic Stephen Fothergill at Sheffield Hallam University has pointed out , there is also the issue of hidden unemployment which is dragging the Welsh economy down. As the head of the TUC said, "we should never treat these as just statistics...Each will be a very human story".

During the last few months, the UK Government has been in denial about whether the economy has gone into recession. As a result, the much needed solutions to dealing with the growing economic crisis have been slow in materialising. The unprecedented one and half percent cut in interest rates on Thursday took everyone by surprise and, in itself, was an admittance that the Bank of England has misread the economic situation in this country during the last year and that it could have acted earlier. The question is whether the prevarication by the UK Government and the Bank in admitting that there was a problem and, more importantly, putting in solution in place to deal with it, is too late to avoid a deep recession. Certainly, the experts paint a bleak picture. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a sharp recession for developed economies with the UK being the worst affected of all by the credit crunch-induced downturn. Other statistics are also worrying for any futur

More bad news for the Welsh economy , this time from the Royal Bank of Scotland’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for October. Its business activity index posted 38.9, down from 42.0 in September and also below October’s UK average of 42.4 (50 denotes neutral and anything below denotes negativity). This follows news at the end of last week that 90 jobs are being lost at Wacker Neuson factory in Tredegar, Northern Automotive Systems losing 99 jobs in Gilwern, Abergavenny, and Rockwool based at Pencoed, Bridgend is cutting its workforce by 80 employees. Other findings from the survey shows that: New business orders shrank at a record pace Companies chose to streamline their operations through job cuts, with private sector employment falling for a 13th successive month Input costs continued to rise but the rate of increase was significantly less than the rates recorded earlier this year.

After an enthralling few months in the political life of the United States of America, to say that the 5th of November 2008 was an historic day would be a gross understatement as Barack Obama became the first African-American leader of the world’s largest economy. His election will surely bring political and economic stability after months of a lame duck president who had neither the leadership, nor the imagination, nor the energy to deal effectively with the financial crisis facing his country. Most importantly, as I said on this blog last week, President-elect Obama’s victory may boost that most elusive of economic concepts, namely consumer confidence, among American citizens at a time when there has been enormous uncertainty within homes and businesses about the future. It will be fascinating to see how the rest of the world reacts to the Obama win. Certainly, on Wednesday morning, it looked like the markets in the Far East had reacted positively, although share prices fell slightly

"The current political view seems to be one of concentrating on the need to deal with the constant demand from consumers and industry for greater amounts of energy without considering, for one minute, that greater efforts in promoting the more efficient use of energy within homes and businesses across the UK may be far more useful in ensuring that carbon emissions are reduced, and bad habits over the increasing wasteful use of power are eliminated.....How many businesses in Wales have contacted organisations such as the Carbon Trust or Arena Network that can help save money through increasing energy efficiency, thus increasing the profitability of the company?" Seeing the light, this blog, June 20th, 2006. "As part of our Green Jobs Strategy, we will deliver enhanced resource efficiency services through Flexible Support for Business" 2nd All-Wales Economic Summit, Nov 6th, 2008

As regular readers of this blog will know, I have emphasised the vital issue of cashflow to many small firms during the current credit crunch, and the importance of public sector bodies paying their bills as soon possible . To be fair, many local authorities are doing their best to facilitate this and whilst one of the best councils at settling in bills in 2007-2008 was Conwy , Monmouthshire County Council were less than impressive in their response according to the data from the WLGA . Certainly, there should be an immediate response to ensure that officials in Monmouthshire brings the council up to the Welsh average payment period as soon as possible as there is little excuse for this, especially when it is critical for all public bodies to do their best to help small firms. However, this issue is not just limited to public bodies and the largest problem for small firms is getting paid from other businesses, particularly larger ones. Late payment has been one of the key problems

"With a recession likely to hit the industry hard during this summer, especially given the rising prices of food and fuel, it would seem that the decision to scrap the Wales Tourist Board (WTB) and bring it under direct ministerial control could have been a major strategic error". Tourism in trouble , this blog, May 19th 2008 "The Welsh Assembly Government is under fire over its tourism policy in a heavily-critical review. The draft report from the Wales Tourism Alliance, obtained by BBC Wales, recommends creating a new tourism body. It says there is a "disconnection" between tourism operators and Visit Wales, the government body set up in 2006 to market attractions. The Wales Tourism Alliance - which represents tourism operators -was commissioned to undertake a review of the industry. There was concern that Visit Wales was less accessible than the old Wales Tourist Board". BBC News, 6th November 2008

Given Hazel Blears' attack on political bloggers, I thought I would highlight a fascinating piece on political blogs from Texas A&M University (I know it's an odd place to find this information, but my innovation team has flown out there yesterday and I was looking for various bits of information when I came across this story). I wonder what the Welsh blogosphere thinks of the differing views of contributors to the article. "Blogging can improve your communication, writing and analytical skills, as well as provide a platform for your opinion." " Blogs can influence the voting process by getting more people interested in and enthused about the political process" "I don't think [political blogs] have any impact. Partisans gravitate to blogs expressing their ideology and partisanship. There is only crystallization of opinions, as there is no exchange of opinions." "The downside of blogging in general is that many people on the Internet c

On Tuesday, Valleys Mam commented on this blog as well as her own that she had heard rumours about Hoover shedding jobs in Merthyr. Huw Lewis also commented on this issue earlier today. Now it seems that she was right and that, according to the Western Mail tomorrow , the business is ready to shed hundreds of jobs. An absolute tragedy and one can only guess which company is next. Update: It would seem that the answer is Corus.

Congratulations to the new President-elect, Barack Obama. It looks like the markets in the Far East are already reacting positively . Most importantly, he should boost that most elusive of economic concepts - consumer confidence - in the World's largest economy. President-elect Obama has already been invited to the global economic summit in ten days' time and is already looking to put together a formidable economic team to deal with the world financial crisis. It is time for change and the new optimism that will be engendered from his victory is a beginning to the long way back to economic prosperity not only in the USA, but all over the World.

Well, we'll know in a few hours. However, whoever wins, one can only hope that the election of a new President will bring some much needed leadership to the world's largest economy. Wall Street certainly reacted well today, and we should expect that the markets should rally globally tomorrow morning and may bring much needed confidence back into the business sector. That is, assuming it's not a tie......!

"I would therefore urge the Assembly Government to re-examine its commitment to the tourism industry and ensure that it gets the support it deserves". This blog, May 19th, 2008 “I will be asking my officials in Visit Wales to bring forward to me ways of establishing a stronger industry input into the development of the tourism industry in Wales". Alun Ffred Jones, Heritage Minister, Nov 3rd, 2008

The FT's economists' forum suggests two unusual solutions to the current crisis in the US that a new President could easily implement and quickly boost spending: To keep revenue-starved states, cities, and towns from slashing spending and raising taxes, raise by a flat, across the board percentage - say by a quarter or even a half - every cash grant the Treasury makes to state and local governments. An increase by a quarter would boost their revenues by $95 bn , or 5 per cent. Reduce by a flat, across-the-board percentage federal payroll taxes. A 25 per cent reduction would increase take-home pay by about $250 bn per year. Cash-constrained households, perhaps half of all households, would quickly spend the money. Even most of the rest would probably increase their spending. An interesting scenario but one that is unlikely to see the light of day in the UK. Here, the Labour Government is looking to increase spending, although there is little talk of providing a fiscal boost to

If you read one article on the UK economy, then it should be this one from the Telegraph, which has an added impact as it describes the relationship between a Welsh business and their bankers. The following quote says it all: "In 15 years banking with NatWest, Rebecca Liddell's burgeoning South Wales caravan park company has never once missed an interest payment or defaulted on a loan. It has been a treasured relationship. After all, she says, without NatWest's £3m loan her third-generation family business would never have expanded to a fourth site. Ms Liddell repaid the money not just on time, but early. Last month, though, she was left in despair after her years of loyalty came to nothing. At the annual overdraft renewal negotiations, her NatWest manager broke the painful news. "He said he knew we'd never had a facility charge for the overdraft before, but he was now imposing 1.5pc," Ms Liddell said. "He also doubled our interest rate over base and r

Today, a report by Deloitte suggests that unemployment may rise to nearly 3 million by the end of 2010. With estimates that 40 businesses are going bust every day , entrepreneurs across the UK are still waiting for the decisive action to ensure that the recession is as shallow as possible. Two things can be done immediately this week. First of all, there needs to be an interest rate cut of at least 1 per cent later this week to cut the cost of borrowing and, more importantly, the UK Government should put pressure on the banks to pass this onto small business customers. Secondly, the Chancellor needs to urgently examine the tax regime for small firms to ensure that, in times of cashflow, they can defer payments to HMRC. The UK Government should also scrap its increase in corporation tax for small business and return it to the previous 20 per cent level. Indeed, it could look to reduce it even further to ensure that firms keep more of their money at this vital time. Time is quickly runni

Last week, we saw the Assembly Government acting to save jobs at Corus and Ford. However, whilst it is important to support our major employers, but this may leave politicians in a quandary as smaller companies also demand their fair share of support from the Assembly Government. One solution to this is to act quickly to draw down some of the £4 billion in additional funds that the UK Government has been given by the European Investment Bank. While the Treasury has been encouraging high street banks to support the small business sector, there is little evidence of this happening to date. Therefore, rather than relying on banks to pass this directly to customers, the Welsh Assembly Government could insist that the Welsh share of this fund – around £50m per annum – is given to Finance Wales to distribute immediately to businesses here in Wales. It would certainly show that the Assembly Government can be proactive in taking forward such ideas and turning them to this economy’s advantage.

As a former regular patron, I note with interest that the Assembly Government today refused to step in to save Theatr Gwynedd. An Assembly government spokesperson said: "The arms length principle for funding of the arts in Wales means that it is not appropriate for the Welsh Assembly Government to intervene directly in the funding situations of individual arts organisations". I assume the Minister will apply the same principle when WAG considers any funding bid for the estimated £25 million needed to build the new Arts Complex on the site and that, according to this arms length approach, will not be able to provide any public funds for this new building.