PROFESSOR DYLAN JONES-EVANS

According to the latest official data , the UK economy contracted 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, its biggest quarterly decline in 51 years. The data was far worse than the estimate of a 1.9 per cent fall and was blamed mainly on weaker output in the construction and manufacturing sectors. This probably kills stone dead any immediate recovery in the economy by the end of the year, despite the predictions of the Chancellor and means that we are unlikely to see any significant growth in output until 2011 at the earliest.

Tomorrow, David Melding launches his new book "WILL BRITAIN SURVIVE BEYOND 2020?" According to the Western Mail today, it looks like it will, at the very least, reignite the debate within the Conservative Party over devolution in Wales, especially given Cameron's acceptance of devolution in Scotland late last week (an announcement that was largely ignored by the Welsh press and commentariat). I was particularly taken by the following statement: "But I think where we went wrong was we should have spent more time in government thinking, how do we give legitimate help to those people within our United Kingdom who want to have a greater expression of self-government?" Clearly, this is a challenge that should be taken up by the Conservative Party in Wales and David Melding has decided to step up to the plate with his views on this critical issue. David is probably the most cerebral of all the Assembly Members and he will not have written this book without thinking ...

Next week, I celebrate my first year as Director of Research and Innovation at the University of Wales. Most of my time has been spent in establishing this new area within the university, including the creation of the Global Academy and the successful implementation of the £11.4 million Prince of Wales Innovation Scholarships project. The last few weeks have involved the writing of a business plan for another major programme of innovation (completed last week) as well as a new research centre. However, the job has also given me impetus to get back to writing research papers in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation with colleagues from the UK and the rest of Europe. Those not involved in academic life might not appreciate this but such output is the currency of an academic career and I have, admittedly, let it slip over the last couple of years. Still, I am more than pleased that, so far this year, five have been published/accepted for publication (including two in the top journ...

Yet again, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned that unless public debt is reduced dramatically during the next parliament, the UK economy will face serious problems for the next decade. In evidence to the Treasury Committee, Merfyn King called for greater ambition in reducing public borrowing and, most tellingly, that the Government’s plans needed to have greater ambition in cutting public borrowing. Worst of all, the Governor made the astonishing statement that he was more uncertain than ever as to whether the UK economy would come out recession quickly. This last statement seems to be backed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ), which revised down its forecast for the UK economy in 2009, warning that we are in a sharp recession, with a further shrinkage of 4.3 per cent in 2009 followed by no growth at all in 2010. Worst of all, the OECD suggested that even if government borrowing is reduced by 1% of GDP per year for the next seven years, the...

Did an interview yesterday with Aled Blake of the Western Mail on the implications of an ageing population for Welsh business "WALES has to wake up to the challenge of an ageing workforce with more than 40% of the population likely to be aged 50 and over by 2031. That was the warning from experts and older people’s charities last night as official statistics show that the population of over 50s in Wales increased by 15.6% in from 1991-2007, and stood at 1.11 million in 2007. That means it is already at 37% of the overall population and is higher than the UK figure of 34%, according to the data published by the Welsh Assembly Government. The number of people aged 50 years and over in Wales is projected to increase by a further 28% by 2031, to 1.42 million or 43% of the population – increasing mainly due to the rise in life expectancy for men and women over the past 30 years. Between 1976 and 2006 the life expectancy at birth has increased by 8.4 years for men and by 6.3 years for w...

Last week, amongst the continuing furore of MPs expenses, many will have missed the publication of statistics which will have a major influence on the outcome of the next general election. The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSNBR), which equates to the amount borrowed monthly by the government, hit £19.9 billion pounds in May. This represents the highest level of government borrowing since records began. Worst of all, it was higher than expected, leading economists to suggest that the total amount of public borrowing this year, estimated at £175 billion in the Chancellor’s recent budget, could hit an unprecedented £200 billion by the time of the next general election. This equates to an additional £7500 of debt for every household in the UK. This growing debt is down to a combination of factors. First of all, we have lower tax receipts as companies make little, if any, taxable profit and lower levels of personal taxation receipts as hundreds of thousands of workers are laid ...

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse in the House of Commons after the disgraceful conduct of MPs and their expenses, we now have the unbelievable scenario of the election of Margaret Beckett to the role of Speaker . Don't they get it? How on earth could anyone in their right mind vote in a woman who is totally out of touch with the voters' concerns over the behaviour of MPs and in a total state of denial about her own expenses? Remember the £600 claim for hanging baskets and pot plants? If you want only one reason as to why she should not become the Speaker who will clean up the House of Commons, just remember one place and one date - the Question Time Panel, 14th of May 2009.

Could this be the week the Welsh Assembly Government finally gets its act together over science, technology and innovation policy? If you read some of the headlines in the press, you could be persuaded that could well be the case. After years of prevarication, WAG finally announced the appointment of a chief scientific adviser , directly accountable to the office of the First Minister, to advise WAG on all matters scientific. Given that there seems to be a complete dearth of scientific knowledge among Assembly politicians, this post is long overdue and is a small victory for many of us who have campaigned to get a high-powered scientific expert into the heart of Welsh policymaking. Indeed, six-and-a-half years have elapsed since I recommended the creation of such a post in evidence to the Economic Development Committee on the state of research and development in Wales . One can only hope that with WAG finally giving in to the logic of creating such a post, the right person is appointed...

News has broken that Airbus in Broughton has been awarded a £28 million grant from the Welsh Assembly Government to ensure the future of hi-tech wing production in Flintshire and to create a new centre to develop composite wing production. Some will question why the Welsh Assembly Government is putting £28 million from its funds into one large business and which amounts to over 10 per cent of the entire business support package for Welsh business? Won't other large firms, such as Anglesey Aluminium and Corus now start asking for similar amounts to secure future jobs at their plants, thusreducing the funds available to Welsh business? Others will ask why the Assembly Government had to pay for this and why Lord Mandelson didn't come up with the additional money from his new super department to support what is essentially a UK operation (especially when Broughton employs thousands of people from outside of Wales). Finally, the more cynical will say that Airbus has played the Asse...

As he fought for his political life last week, the Prime Minister said the main reason for staying in power was to ensure that his government could continue with their efforts to promote fairness across society. To quote the man himself : “What would people think of a Labour government faced with an economic crisis ... if ever we walked away from them at a time of need? We are sticking with them and working with them…if we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.” This message of reducing inequality in society would have been honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power. Consider what has happened since the Labour Party came into power in 1997. Thanks to the implementation of one of their key educational policies – the introduction of uni...

An insider tells me that there is a new game that is being played by attendees at any meeting with Assembly Ministers, namely ProAct bingo i.e. how many times the Minister or his/her officials will actually mention the ProAct scheme during the meeting. It should be funny but it isn't, especially when the Assembly Government has actually failed to come up with anything else of note to deal specifically with the recession since the ProAct scheme was announced over six months ago. All of their other initiatives are either those that were planned years ago, such as the JEREMIE fund , or rehashes of previous schemes such as the " new" local investment funds which are a copy of the funds run by local authorities under the Objective 1 scheme. It demonstrates, unfortunately, that the Labour-Plaid Assembly Government has completely run out of ideas only halfway through its term and that the recession will continue to hit the country hard over the coming months, despite billions of...

Earlier this week, many would have been horrified to read that some parts of Wales are officially worse off economically than areas within the former Soviet Bloc such as rural Poland. A report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) showed that Wales remained one of the poorest nations in Europe and that, despite billions of pounds of European funding, the wealth gap between Wales and the rest of the UK had actually widened. Drawing on the latest GVA data - which track the prosperity levels of the various nations and regions of the UK and which this blog has reported on previously – the OECD reported that the GVA per head for London in 2007 was 152 per cent of the UK average as compared to Wales at 75 per cent, the worst performance of any UK region. A decade earlier, London was 138 per cent of average prosperity of the UK in 1997 whilst Wales was 80 per cent. Ironically for those who lambast the previous government’s regional policies, the average annu...

At a time when the country is suffering the deepest recession since the Second World War, I am proud to launch the Wales Fast Growth 50 again to demonstrate the best of Welsh business. The launch video with Sion Barry of the Western Mail can be found here At a time when the Welsh economy is suffering, I believe that the Wales Fast Growth 50 remains as the most visible reminder of the enterprise and innovation that still exists within our business sector. Despite these difficult times, there are still Welsh companies which are taking advantage of opportunities in the marketplace, creating wealth and employment within their local communities. The impact of a small group of companies should not be underestimated. Since we started with the first publication in 1999, 317 firms have appeared on the ten lists published in the Western Mail. As with all dynamic economies, some businesses have fallen by the wayside. However, it is estimated that, together, these fast growth companies have create...

Over last weekend, the remaining few gathered in France to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landings. As this was a poignant reminder of the events that turned the outcome of the Second World War, many will have been disappointed by the snub from the French Government to Her Majesty the Queen, who herself served in the forces during the war. By not inviting the Head of State of the United Kingdom, President Sarkozy has been accused of demoting our country’s sacrifices in liberating his own and, worse still, of seemingly basing his entire history of the Normandy landings on the film “Saving Private Ryan” in order to curry favour with his American guests. Of course, no-one should deny that American troops played a major role in the D-Day landings and that thousands lost their lives to liberate France. However, it is a sad day when a major European statesman, for his own political ends, deliberately understates the role played by the British and the Canadians. Worst o...

"I think it sends a very clear message to everybody in Wales. If you don't vote Labour, if for example you vote Plaid Cymru , you will get the Tories. Peter Hain after Labour's worst result in a Welsh election since 1918 Yes, Peter, this is exactly what happened after the last Assembly election! Given the drivel that has been written on his now defunct Aneurin Glyndwr website, Labour just don't get it and this is why they lost heavily in Wales. When will he, from the comfort of his large house in Neath, wake up and smell the flowers? It isn't about class war and those 'nasty Tories' anymore. It isn't about public service cuts, especially when his own government will have impose half a billion pounds of cuts on the Assembly for next year. It is about how his Government have let down the most vulnerable in society, the mess they have made of the economy, the thousands of well-paid manufacturing jobs they have lost through inaction and the fact that Wa...

Last Wednesday, I was in Llandudno giving a speech to the Colegau Cymru/Fforwm conference, the annual gathering of further education colleges of Wales. While discussing the general state of the economy, the real message I wanted to put across was that of the importance of investment in skills and training in ensuring that we not only survive this recession, but are better prepared when we hopefully begin to emerge out of it sometime in the second half of next year. Ironically, the very same morning when I was talking about the dangers of unemployment in Wales hitting 150,000 by the end of the year, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation was publishing a damning indictment of the regeneration policies of the successive Assembly Governments since 1999. Essentially, the report shows that much of the economic gains experienced by the most deprived areas in Wales were built on quicksand and instead of benefiting from the funds provided, they are now experiencing unemployment and benefit claims at l...

Bloody hell! I think will be the reaction from most of Wales to the result tonight although, as I said earlier, there has been a lot of hard work undertaken by Matt and his Welsh team to make sure that this happened. This was an absolutely dreadful result for Labour and remember that a significant number of traditional Conservative voters - and those who would normally vote for the Party - will have voted for UKIP in the European election and will revert back at the General election. As for Plaid, their supporters will be terribly disappointed, especially as their media machine has been busy telling everyone they would win the second seat from Labour . The question for them is whether the coalition with Labour in Cardiff Bay is actually affecting their vote as an alternative to the Government. I also hope that both the BBC and the Western Mail will learn lessons from this result as both have been listening a bit too much to the Plaid spinmeisters not only during this election, but also...

Rumours are reaching me that the Conservative Party has won the popular vote in the Welsh European elections. This is allegedly the first time this has happened in any major election in Wales since 1918 . Labour has retained second place and Plaid has come in third. UKIP , it would seem, have beaten the Liberal Democrats to the fourth seat. Have just spoken to my better half, who is standing in Cardiff West at the next Parliamentary election. It would seem that Labour have just scraped the votes in the constituency by around 150 votes from the Conservatives but that UKIP took around 2,000 votes (and you can guess from which party!) The worst aspect is that BNP allegedly got 800 votes and this is Cardiff West, one of the most cosmopolitan areas in Wales. More later if I hear anything further

At a Labour Activists' meeting this afternoon , the Prime Minister said the following: “If we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.” This message of reducing inequality in society would be honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power. Take the following four examples: Education - thanks to Labour's introduction of tuition fees, the proportion of working class students going to university has declined Personal wealth - According to data from the Department for Work and Pensions , Britain under Gordon Brown is a more unequal country than at any time since modern records began in the early 1960s - since the 2005 election, the incomes of the poor have fallen and those of the rich have risen Regional economic disparities - The rela...

It would seem that Sir Alan Sugar may be regretting his hasty decision to 'join' the UK Government as their enterprise championczar as it emerges that the BBC is now examining whether he should continue as the star of the Apprentice. With the next series due to start in March 2010 - two months before the likely date of the General Election if Brown survives - it would clearly be a breach of the so-called "impartiality" of the BBC if such a prominent supporter of the Government was given airtime. I don't think Sir Alan has thought this through properly, a trait for which he would probably be fired for in his own series. If you had a choice between being the host of one the BBC's most popular programmes or being a bit part player in a failing government, which one would you choose? Anyway, perhaps it is time for Sir Alan to hand over to someone else as the format is becoming slightly tired. Potential successors could be Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou (Easyjet), Jacque...

As mentioned earlier this week, am currently re-reading the Alan Clark diaries. This entry from the 19th November 1990, two days before Margaret Thatcher was toppled, seems especially pertinent to how the House of Commons will probably behave next week as the Parliamentary Labour Party struggles with the decision of whether they should dump the Prime Minister. "The whole house is in ferment. Little groups, conclaves everywhere. Only in the dining room does some convention seem to have grown (I presume because no one trusts their dining companions) that we don't talk 'shop'...But in the corridors is is all furtive, whispering and glancing over shoulders. The institutional confidence, that special grimacing style of speech out of the corner of the mouth, eyes focusing in another direction, is now it seems the only way of communication".

Whilst the speculation and gossip has focused on the Prime Minister and his ever changing cabinet, the real politics of winning elections is going on elsewhere in the country. Whilst there has been enormous spin regarding the decline of the Conservative Party, the local election results in England show a very different story . The Conservative Party has won an additional seven councils, namely Staffordshire, Lancashire and Derbyshire from Labour (which had run all three since 1981), Devon and Somerset from the Lib Dems, Warwickshire from no overall control and the new Central Bedfordshire unitary authority. In total, the Conservative Party now has an additional 217 councillors with a local political base from which to campaign for the next general election and, most importantly, they are based across all parts of England. This follows similar successes in Wales last year . Creating a strong local activist base is what wins close run seats and as supporters desert the Labour Party, this...

Just got back from a few days away and the political scene seems to be heading into meltdown. According to the latest reports, James Purnell has quit the Cabinet and told Gordon Brown to stand down to save the Labour Party a “fighting chance of winning”. Instant comments here from the Guardian , BBC News and the Times . Ironically, I am currently reading the Alan Clark Diaries and I am just coming up to the section decribing the days leading to the end of Mrs Thatcher's Government. Deja vu dosen't even begin to describe the similarities and if history is anything to go by, it is highly likely that there will be a new leader of the Labour Party sooner rather than later.

Have just spent the last couple of days in North Wales, where I was giving one of the keynotes at the FFORWM Conference in Llandudno Clearly, the message is that with 150,000 estimated to be out of work in Wales by the end of the year, skills and training are even more important when we eventually come out of the recession. As we saw today with the closure of Indesit in Kinmel Bay and the loss of over 300 jobs, the recession is not going away just yet within the region.

We are often told by politicians that Wales should become a small clever country that punches above its weight in an increasingly competitive global environment. To achieve this, there must be investment in knowledge-based industries, which means not only attracting the best companies here to Wales but developing our own home grown businesses in key areas such as biotechnology, computing and clean technologies. As the previous blog entry showed, that strategy took a massive blow last week with the news that Deepstream Technologies had been forced to go into administration, not only putting eighty well-paid jobs at risk but also risking the future viability of creating a strong high technology economy within North Wales. Despite this, there are signs that one organisation in North Wales is determined to continue to build the foundations for a knowledge-based economy within the region. Glyndwr University has recently announced plans for the creation of a knowledge industry corridor, lin...