According to the latest official data, the UK economy contracted 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, its biggest quarterly decline in 51 years.
The data was far worse than the estimate of a 1.9 per cent fall and was blamed mainly on weaker output in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
This probably kills stone dead any immediate recovery in the economy by the end of the year, despite the predictions of the Chancellor and means that we are unlikely to see any significant growth in output until 2011 at the earliest.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Welsh Devolution and the Conservative Party
Tomorrow, David Melding launches his new book "WILL BRITAIN SURVIVE BEYOND 2020?"
According to the Western Mail today, it looks like it will, at the very least, reignite the debate within the Conservative Party over devolution in Wales, especially given Cameron's acceptance of devolution in Scotland late last week (an announcement that was largely ignored by the Welsh press and commentariat).
I was particularly taken by the following statement:
Clearly, this is a challenge that should be taken up by the Conservative Party in Wales and David Melding has decided to step up to the plate with his views on this critical issue.
David is probably the most cerebral of all the Assembly Members and he will not have written this book without thinking long and hard about the consequences.
I made clear my views on devolution last year at the National Eisteddfod, and posted on it here. Indeed, as I said at the time
Given that statement, you will not be surprised to learn that I am broadly supportive of David's arguments.
Indeed, the case could be made for David Cameron, once he is Prime Minister with a sufficiently large majority, to push through legislation to grant further powers directly to the Assembly without a referendum as long as it was part of a greater constitutional reform of the United Kingdom which would include fewer MPs and a new 'English Parliament' at Westminster.
This would instantly solve the constitutional mess created by the Labour Party, kill stone dead the issue of 'independence' for a generation and allow the next Assembly election to be fought on policies that would actually help Wales get out of the mess it is in.
I am meeting David tonight to discuss our economic policies for the next Assembly election but I am sure our conversation will also touch on his book and its consequences for the Conservative Party in Wales.
According to the Western Mail today, it looks like it will, at the very least, reignite the debate within the Conservative Party over devolution in Wales, especially given Cameron's acceptance of devolution in Scotland late last week (an announcement that was largely ignored by the Welsh press and commentariat).
I was particularly taken by the following statement:
"But I think where we went wrong was we should have spent more time in government thinking, how do we give legitimate help to those people within our United Kingdom who want to have a greater expression of self-government?"
Clearly, this is a challenge that should be taken up by the Conservative Party in Wales and David Melding has decided to step up to the plate with his views on this critical issue.
David is probably the most cerebral of all the Assembly Members and he will not have written this book without thinking long and hard about the consequences.
I made clear my views on devolution last year at the National Eisteddfod, and posted on it here. Indeed, as I said at the time
"Contrary to the nationalist viewpoint, the creation of a Welsh Parliament is a not a step towards independence but a move towards equality within a Union of Parliaments within the United Kingdom, a Union that would be strengthened by having a Welsh ’Senedd’ with full law-making powers. "
Given that statement, you will not be surprised to learn that I am broadly supportive of David's arguments.
Indeed, the case could be made for David Cameron, once he is Prime Minister with a sufficiently large majority, to push through legislation to grant further powers directly to the Assembly without a referendum as long as it was part of a greater constitutional reform of the United Kingdom which would include fewer MPs and a new 'English Parliament' at Westminster.
This would instantly solve the constitutional mess created by the Labour Party, kill stone dead the issue of 'independence' for a generation and allow the next Assembly election to be fought on policies that would actually help Wales get out of the mess it is in.
I am meeting David tonight to discuss our economic policies for the next Assembly election but I am sure our conversation will also touch on his book and its consequences for the Conservative Party in Wales.
Friday, June 26, 2009
The Day Job
Next week, I celebrate my first year as Director of Research and Innovation at the University of Wales.
Most of my time has been spent in establishing this new area within the university, including the creation of the Global Academy and the successful implementation of the £11.4 million Prince of Wales Innovation Scholarships project. The last few weeks have involved the writing of a business plan for another major programme of innovation (completed last week) as well as a new research centre.
However, the job has also given me impetus to get back to writing research papers in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation with colleagues from the UK and the rest of Europe.
Those not involved in academic life might not appreciate this but such output is the currency of an academic career and I have, admittedly, let it slip over the last couple of years.
Still, I am more than pleased that, so far this year, five have been published/accepted for publication (including two in the top journal, Regional Studies) and we are working on another eight papers to be submitted during the next six months.
The papers published are as follows:
Most of my time has been spent in establishing this new area within the university, including the creation of the Global Academy and the successful implementation of the £11.4 million Prince of Wales Innovation Scholarships project. The last few weeks have involved the writing of a business plan for another major programme of innovation (completed last week) as well as a new research centre.
However, the job has also given me impetus to get back to writing research papers in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation with colleagues from the UK and the rest of Europe.
Those not involved in academic life might not appreciate this but such output is the currency of an academic career and I have, admittedly, let it slip over the last couple of years.
Still, I am more than pleased that, so far this year, five have been published/accepted for publication (including two in the top journal, Regional Studies) and we are working on another eight papers to be submitted during the next six months.
The papers published are as follows:
- "Nascent entrepreneurial activity within female ethnic minority groups", Caleb Kwong, Piers Thompson, Dylan Jones-Evans and David Brooksbank, International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 262-281
- "The Spatial Dispersion of Informal Investment at a Regional Level: Evidence from the UK", Dylan Jones-Evans and Piers Thompson, European Planning Studies, Vol. 17, No 5, pp. 659–675 (2009)
- "Women and Home-based Entrepreneurship - Evidence from the United Kingdom", Piers Thompson, Dylan Jones-Evans and Caleb Kwong, International Small Business Journal, Vol. 27, No. 2, 227-239 (2009)
- "Transferring good practice beyond organisational borders: lessons from transferring an entrepreneurship programme" M. Klofsten, P. Heydebreck and D. Jones-Evans, Regional Studies (forthcoming), 2009
- "Entrepreneurship amongst minority language speakers - the case of Wales", Dylan Jones-Evans, Piers Thompson and Caleb Kwong, Regional Studies (forthcoming), (2009)
Thursday, June 25, 2009
UK will have the worst public debt in the developed world by 2017
Yet again, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned that unless public debt is reduced dramatically during the next parliament, the UK economy will face serious problems for the next decade.
In evidence to the Treasury Committee, Merfyn King called for greater ambition in reducing public borrowing and, most tellingly, that the Government’s plans needed to have greater ambition in cutting public borrowing.
Worst of all, the Governor made the astonishing statement that he was more uncertain than ever as to whether the UK economy would come out recession quickly.
This last statement seems to be backed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which revised down its forecast for the UK economy in 2009, warning that we are in a sharp recession, with a further shrinkage of 4.3 per cent in 2009 followed by no growth at all in 2010.
Worst of all, the OECD suggested that even if government borrowing is reduced by 1% of GDP per year for the next seven years, the UK will still have a gross debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% by 2017, one of the largest in the developed world.
It would seem that whether Gordon Brown likes it or not, cuts in public expenditure are inevitable.
The question is how he can do a political u-turn after yesterday's performance at the dispatch box where he denied that this would need to happen and that he would be increasing expenditure over the next few years.
In evidence to the Treasury Committee, Merfyn King called for greater ambition in reducing public borrowing and, most tellingly, that the Government’s plans needed to have greater ambition in cutting public borrowing.
Worst of all, the Governor made the astonishing statement that he was more uncertain than ever as to whether the UK economy would come out recession quickly.
This last statement seems to be backed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which revised down its forecast for the UK economy in 2009, warning that we are in a sharp recession, with a further shrinkage of 4.3 per cent in 2009 followed by no growth at all in 2010.
Worst of all, the OECD suggested that even if government borrowing is reduced by 1% of GDP per year for the next seven years, the UK will still have a gross debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% by 2017, one of the largest in the developed world.
It would seem that whether Gordon Brown likes it or not, cuts in public expenditure are inevitable.
The question is how he can do a political u-turn after yesterday's performance at the dispatch box where he denied that this would need to happen and that he would be increasing expenditure over the next few years.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Ageing population and its implications for Wales
Did an interview yesterday with Aled Blake of the Western Mail on the implications of an ageing population for Welsh business
"WALES has to wake up to the challenge of an ageing workforce with more than 40% of the population likely to be aged 50 and over by 2031.
That was the warning from experts and older people’s charities last night as official statistics show that the population of over 50s in Wales increased by 15.6% in from 1991-2007, and stood at 1.11 million in 2007. That means it is already at 37% of the overall population and is higher than the UK figure of 34%, according to the data published by the Welsh Assembly Government.
The number of people aged 50 years and over in Wales is projected to increase by a further 28% by 2031, to 1.42 million or 43% of the population – increasing mainly due to the rise in life expectancy for men and women over the past 30 years.
Between 1976 and 2006 the life expectancy at birth has increased by 8.4 years for men and by 6.3 years for women. The population aged 85 and over is projected to more than double in size between 2007 and 2031 to 156,400.
The effect of such population change on the economy could prove costly to the Welsh economy, with fewer people working and paying taxes despite more of a reliance on state support.
Dylan Jones-Evans, director of research and innovation at the University of Wales, argued that there is a growing case for increasing the working age limit from 65 to 70.
He said: “The big challenge that the UK as a whole faces is that there will be fewer adults working to pay taxes and support this ageing population. If we don’t change the limit at which we retire then there are going to be fewer people able to fill the jobs available. You are then back to the issue of bringing people in from outside Wales and the UK.
“That is the major challenge, not only is there an ageing population that is living longer, you also have a lower birth rate and as a result the potential people of working age in the population declines year in year. You will to struggle to find the right type of people to fill these vacancies.”
Prof Jones-Evans said the one way of addressing that problem was to raise the working age limit. He went on: “Clearly people are living longer and what we have to do is encourage greater activity among our older people.
“What we should be doing is encouraging businesses to develop more flexibility geared towards older workers to ensure they can continue to make a contribution.
“We afford flexibility and flexible working to parents, so why should we not be doing the same for older people. They might be able to job share and continue to do the jobs they were doing before.”
Full article can be found here.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Public debt increases by £20 Billion every month
Last week, amongst the continuing furore of MPs expenses, many will have missed the publication of statistics which will have a major influence on the outcome of the next general election.
The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSNBR), which equates to the amount borrowed monthly by the government, hit £19.9 billion pounds in May. This represents the highest level of government borrowing since records began.
Worst of all, it was higher than expected, leading economists to suggest that the total amount of public borrowing this year, estimated at £175 billion in the Chancellor’s recent budget, could hit an unprecedented £200 billion by the time of the next general election. This equates to an additional £7500 of debt for every household in the UK.
This growing debt is down to a combination of factors.
First of all, we have lower tax receipts as companies make little, if any, taxable profit and lower levels of personal taxation receipts as hundreds of thousands of workers are laid off. For example, the Office of National Statistics reported that income tax revenues were 11% lower than in May 2008, value-added tax (VAT) receipts were 18% lower than the same month last year and the corporate tax take was a worrying 27% down compared with a year ago.
Secondly, we have higher levels of government spending as a result of 1.54 million people claiming unemployment benefit, a figure that is set to increase during the next few months.
This ‘double whammy’ means that the total amount of public debt could be over a trillion pounds within a few years unless there is immediate action to cut public sector expenditure.
Certainly, such a message is one that many politicians seem afraid to state publicly.
However, with nearly every household in Britain having to tighten its belt during the worst recession since the Second World War, shouldn’t our government be doing the same?
Well, it certainly doesn’t seem to think so, with Labour politicians trying to sell us all the idea that, if re-elected, they will continue to increase public expenditure whilst the Conservatives will indulge in spending cuts. This is despite individuals as prominent as the Governor of the Bank of England warning that unless public debt is reduced dramatically during the next parliament, the UK economy will face serious problems in the future.
The question, therefore, is whether anyone will believe any politician who says that they will continue spending or, to put it another way, continue to increase the mountain of debt already incurred in this nation.
The massive public outcry over the expenses issue shows that the voters of this country have had enough of politicians being, as the late Alan Clark once said, ‘economical with the actualite’.
The simple truth is that this government has spent with an abandonment worthy of most lottery winners without thinking once about the consequences of its profligacy. Despite this, it continues to try and convince the public that if it spends more of our money, then everything will be okay.
How stupid do they think we are?
It is about time that opposition politicians exposed this Labour dissembling for what it is really is, namely a last desperate attempt to cling onto power. All they have to do is ask Gordon Brown and the rest of the Labour administration one simple question, namely who is going to pay for the increase in public expenditure when your government has taken this country into the deepest debt in its history?
As our public debt increases by £20 billion every month, it is time that this government took full responsibility for its actions and started to balance its budget in the same way that many households across the country are having to do as a result of this recession.
If they do not, and continue to treat the public like children, then the future of this country’s economy doesn’t bear thinking about.
The public sector net borrowing requirement (PSNBR), which equates to the amount borrowed monthly by the government, hit £19.9 billion pounds in May. This represents the highest level of government borrowing since records began.
Worst of all, it was higher than expected, leading economists to suggest that the total amount of public borrowing this year, estimated at £175 billion in the Chancellor’s recent budget, could hit an unprecedented £200 billion by the time of the next general election. This equates to an additional £7500 of debt for every household in the UK.
This growing debt is down to a combination of factors.
First of all, we have lower tax receipts as companies make little, if any, taxable profit and lower levels of personal taxation receipts as hundreds of thousands of workers are laid off. For example, the Office of National Statistics reported that income tax revenues were 11% lower than in May 2008, value-added tax (VAT) receipts were 18% lower than the same month last year and the corporate tax take was a worrying 27% down compared with a year ago.
Secondly, we have higher levels of government spending as a result of 1.54 million people claiming unemployment benefit, a figure that is set to increase during the next few months.
This ‘double whammy’ means that the total amount of public debt could be over a trillion pounds within a few years unless there is immediate action to cut public sector expenditure.
Certainly, such a message is one that many politicians seem afraid to state publicly.
However, with nearly every household in Britain having to tighten its belt during the worst recession since the Second World War, shouldn’t our government be doing the same?
Well, it certainly doesn’t seem to think so, with Labour politicians trying to sell us all the idea that, if re-elected, they will continue to increase public expenditure whilst the Conservatives will indulge in spending cuts. This is despite individuals as prominent as the Governor of the Bank of England warning that unless public debt is reduced dramatically during the next parliament, the UK economy will face serious problems in the future.
The question, therefore, is whether anyone will believe any politician who says that they will continue spending or, to put it another way, continue to increase the mountain of debt already incurred in this nation.
The massive public outcry over the expenses issue shows that the voters of this country have had enough of politicians being, as the late Alan Clark once said, ‘economical with the actualite’.
The simple truth is that this government has spent with an abandonment worthy of most lottery winners without thinking once about the consequences of its profligacy. Despite this, it continues to try and convince the public that if it spends more of our money, then everything will be okay.
How stupid do they think we are?
It is about time that opposition politicians exposed this Labour dissembling for what it is really is, namely a last desperate attempt to cling onto power. All they have to do is ask Gordon Brown and the rest of the Labour administration one simple question, namely who is going to pay for the increase in public expenditure when your government has taken this country into the deepest debt in its history?
As our public debt increases by £20 billion every month, it is time that this government took full responsibility for its actions and started to balance its budget in the same way that many households across the country are having to do as a result of this recession.
If they do not, and continue to treat the public like children, then the future of this country’s economy doesn’t bear thinking about.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Beckett for Speaker? How out of touch are our MPs?
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse in the House of Commons after the disgraceful conduct of MPs and their expenses, we now have the unbelievable scenario of the election of Margaret Beckett to the role of Speaker.
Don't they get it?
How on earth could anyone in their right mind vote in a woman who is totally out of touch with the voters' concerns over the behaviour of MPs and in a total state of denial about her own expenses? Remember the £600 claim for hanging baskets and pot plants?
If you want only one reason as to why she should not become the Speaker who will clean up the House of Commons, just remember one place and one date - the Question Time Panel, 14th of May 2009.
Don't they get it?
How on earth could anyone in their right mind vote in a woman who is totally out of touch with the voters' concerns over the behaviour of MPs and in a total state of denial about her own expenses? Remember the £600 claim for hanging baskets and pot plants?
If you want only one reason as to why she should not become the Speaker who will clean up the House of Commons, just remember one place and one date - the Question Time Panel, 14th of May 2009.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
The Appliance of Science?
Could this be the week the Welsh Assembly Government finally gets its act together over science, technology and innovation policy?
If you read some of the headlines in the press, you could be persuaded that could well be the case.
After years of prevarication, WAG finally announced the appointment of a chief scientific adviser, directly accountable to the office of the First Minister, to advise WAG on all matters scientific.
Given that there seems to be a complete dearth of scientific knowledge among Assembly politicians, this post is long overdue and is a small victory for many of us who have campaigned to get a high-powered scientific expert into the heart of Welsh policymaking.
Indeed, six-and-a-half years have elapsed since I recommended the creation of such a post in evidence to the Economic Development Committee on the state of research and development in Wales.
One can only hope that with WAG finally giving in to the logic of creating such a post, the right person is appointed who will drive forward the research agenda in Wales, especially given the policy vacuum that has existed in this area among existing public bodies.
We then saw the announcement by Swansea University on the proposed establishment of a second campus which will, according to the institution’s press release, create 11,000 jobs and generate £3 billion into the local economy over the next 10 years.
If approved, this “science and innovation campus” could, in principle, become the largest knowledge-based economy in Europe. Of course, its future success is dependent on a whole range of factors, including attracting tens of millions of additional funding, support from major companies and a political will to make it happen. However, at least Swansea University cannot be faulted for its ambition in developing a new approach that links research and development activities directly into the regeneration of the local economy.
Finally, as discussed yesterday, the Welsh Assembly Government has given Airbus in Broughton a £28m grant to secure its future in the region at a time when even the UK’s most advanced manufacturing facility was considering further job cuts in the face of the recession.
More importantly, the investment is focused on the development of new composite technologies which will revolutionise aircraft design over the next decade and is intended to create a world class centre of expertise in this area.
I only hope some of this money will find itself into local institutions such as Glyndwr University, which has itself invested heavily in attracting professors in areas such as composites and advanced manufacturing.
Building scientific capacity to work alongside firms such as Airbus is equally as important as funding the companies themselves and our higher education institutions have a vital role to play in this regard.
On reflection, this therefore seems like good news all round for the science and technology community but there is much more that can be done to ensure we maximise the opportunities that are available to develop a value- added knowledge-based economy in Wales.
Certainly, one area in which there has been a distinct lack of immediate action is that of the approval of European Convergence Funds to projects involving the university sector.
Reflecting the European Commission’s Lisbon agenda priorities to develop a knowledge-based economy, more than 313 million euros has been committed, over the period 2007-13 to support innovation-related projects.
Yet, since the programme started in January 2007, only two projects from the higher education sector have been approved by the Welsh European Funding Council (Wefo), part of the Welsh Assembly Government.
Of course, those applying are saying the process of approving projects is too slow, bureaucratic and cumbersome with some projects having waited two years for approval.
However, in response, those managing the process have indicated that the university sector is not getting its act together and not responding quick enough to requests from Wefo for further information to ensure that the projects are getting approved.
Whoever is right, the truth of the matter is Wales needs its university sector to play a full role in developing successful European projects in the fields of technology and innovation if it is to create the knowledge-based economy of the future.
Rather than arguing over who is wrong or right, perhaps it is time for politicians to go in there and bang a few heads together to ensure this problem is unblocked quickly. Certainly, if the delays continue, it will be the Welsh economy which will be the loser.
The creation of a chief scientific adviser and the funding of composites development at Airbus, alongside the ambitions of Swansea University, are all a step in the right direction for the future of the Welsh economy.
However, the hundreds of millions of pounds worth of European Funds provided to support universities’ development of their innovation potential is a competitive advantage other parts of the UK simply do not have.
We would be foolish not to ensure this money is spent now on ensuring we create the science and technology infrastructure that is vital to the future prosperity of this nation and to putting the economy in a great position when we finally come out of the recession.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Airbus hits the jackpot
News has broken that Airbus in Broughton has been awarded a £28 million grant from the Welsh Assembly Government to ensure the future of hi-tech wing production in Flintshire and to create a new centre to develop composite wing production.
Some will question why the Welsh Assembly Government is putting £28 million from its funds into one large business and which amounts to over 10 per cent of the entire business support package for Welsh business? Won't other large firms, such as Anglesey Aluminium and Corus now start asking for similar amounts to secure future jobs at their plants, thusreducing the funds available to Welsh business?
Others will ask why the Assembly Government had to pay for this and why Lord Mandelson didn't come up with the additional money from his new super department to support what is essentially a UK operation (especially when Broughton employs thousands of people from outside of Wales).
Finally, the more cynical will say that Airbus has played the Assembly Government perfectly and squeezed a massive grant from them by suggesting, at a time of recession, that the leading UK manufacturing plant which coincidentally is based in Wales, will shed hundreds of jobs.
While all of these arguments have merit, we mustn't forget that Airbus is the real jewel in the Welsh economy and if the investment secures the future of this plant for the next decade, then it is worth every penny. For once, the Assembly Government has done the right thing as I cannot even begin to contemplate what the alternative would have been to Airbus closing down.
However, I just hope that Rhodri, in giving such a large amount to Airbus, has ensured that some of this money will go to building up capacity within Welsh universities in the area of composite materials and that Airbus will have to support similar development within its supply chain of Welsh companies.
Some will question why the Welsh Assembly Government is putting £28 million from its funds into one large business and which amounts to over 10 per cent of the entire business support package for Welsh business? Won't other large firms, such as Anglesey Aluminium and Corus now start asking for similar amounts to secure future jobs at their plants, thusreducing the funds available to Welsh business?
Others will ask why the Assembly Government had to pay for this and why Lord Mandelson didn't come up with the additional money from his new super department to support what is essentially a UK operation (especially when Broughton employs thousands of people from outside of Wales).
Finally, the more cynical will say that Airbus has played the Assembly Government perfectly and squeezed a massive grant from them by suggesting, at a time of recession, that the leading UK manufacturing plant which coincidentally is based in Wales, will shed hundreds of jobs.
While all of these arguments have merit, we mustn't forget that Airbus is the real jewel in the Welsh economy and if the investment secures the future of this plant for the next decade, then it is worth every penny. For once, the Assembly Government has done the right thing as I cannot even begin to contemplate what the alternative would have been to Airbus closing down.
However, I just hope that Rhodri, in giving such a large amount to Airbus, has ensured that some of this money will go to building up capacity within Welsh universities in the area of composite materials and that Airbus will have to support similar development within its supply chain of Welsh companies.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Gordon Brown let us down
As he fought for his political life last week, the Prime Minister said the main reason for staying in power was to ensure that his government could continue with their efforts to promote fairness across society.
To quote the man himself:
“What would people think of a Labour government faced with an economic crisis ... if ever we walked away from them at a time of need? We are sticking with them and working with them…if we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.”
This message of reducing inequality in society would have been honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power.
Consider what has happened since the Labour Party came into power in 1997.
Thanks to the implementation of one of their key educational policies – the introduction of university tuition fees - the proportion of working class students going to university has actually declined, despite more higher education places being made available.
In terms of the differences between the relative wealth of different parts of the UK, the prosperity gap between London (the richest) and other parts of the UK has widened in the period 1997-2007, with the poorest regions such as Wales among the hardest hit.
Indeed, a report by the influential Joseph Rowntree Foundation has shown that much of the temporary economic gains recently experienced by the most deprived areas in Wales have all but evaporated as they are now experiencing unemployment and benefit claims at levels last seen during the 1990s.
This is despite spending more than £2.5 billion of funds provided by European Objective One funding and matched public and private sector contributions, as well as hundreds of millions of more of Assembly money during the last ten years.
Finally, and most damningly, statistics from the Government’s own Department for Work and Pensions has shown that Britain, under Gordon Brown, is a more unequal country than at any time since modern records began in the early 1960s. Since the 2005 election, the incomes of the poor have fallen and those of the rich have risen. This is despite the introduction of the minimum wage.
The PM and his advisers really do live in a fantasy world if they think that their policies, over the last twelve years, have been fair to the poorest in our society. Indeed, their mismanagement of the economy has made things worse, and not better, for millions of people in this country.
Of course, Labour politicians are quick to point out that the UK recession is everyone else's fault. When that doesn't work, they hark back to the 1980s and 1990s and say that it is all the Tories' fault.
Well, it doesn't wash anymore.
The growth in wealth gap has happened under Labour's watch and started well before the banking crisis engulfed this country.
The simple fact is that Gordon Brown and his party have squandered hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on initiative after initiative.
Yet, despite this largesse, they have proven to be so incompetent that the poorest in our society are not only no better off, but in some instances, much worse off (and that was before we experienced the economic woes of the last few months).
In my honest opinion, the Prime Minister shouldn't resign just because he is losing internal support within his own party; he should resign because he has let this country down and broken his promise to help the poorest in our society.
That is the main reason why he should go, and go quickly.
To quote the man himself:
“What would people think of a Labour government faced with an economic crisis ... if ever we walked away from them at a time of need? We are sticking with them and working with them…if we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.”
This message of reducing inequality in society would have been honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power.
Consider what has happened since the Labour Party came into power in 1997.
Thanks to the implementation of one of their key educational policies – the introduction of university tuition fees - the proportion of working class students going to university has actually declined, despite more higher education places being made available.
In terms of the differences between the relative wealth of different parts of the UK, the prosperity gap between London (the richest) and other parts of the UK has widened in the period 1997-2007, with the poorest regions such as Wales among the hardest hit.
Indeed, a report by the influential Joseph Rowntree Foundation has shown that much of the temporary economic gains recently experienced by the most deprived areas in Wales have all but evaporated as they are now experiencing unemployment and benefit claims at levels last seen during the 1990s.
This is despite spending more than £2.5 billion of funds provided by European Objective One funding and matched public and private sector contributions, as well as hundreds of millions of more of Assembly money during the last ten years.
Finally, and most damningly, statistics from the Government’s own Department for Work and Pensions has shown that Britain, under Gordon Brown, is a more unequal country than at any time since modern records began in the early 1960s. Since the 2005 election, the incomes of the poor have fallen and those of the rich have risen. This is despite the introduction of the minimum wage.
The PM and his advisers really do live in a fantasy world if they think that their policies, over the last twelve years, have been fair to the poorest in our society. Indeed, their mismanagement of the economy has made things worse, and not better, for millions of people in this country.
Of course, Labour politicians are quick to point out that the UK recession is everyone else's fault. When that doesn't work, they hark back to the 1980s and 1990s and say that it is all the Tories' fault.
Well, it doesn't wash anymore.
The growth in wealth gap has happened under Labour's watch and started well before the banking crisis engulfed this country.
The simple fact is that Gordon Brown and his party have squandered hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on initiative after initiative.
Yet, despite this largesse, they have proven to be so incompetent that the poorest in our society are not only no better off, but in some instances, much worse off (and that was before we experienced the economic woes of the last few months).
In my honest opinion, the Prime Minister shouldn't resign just because he is losing internal support within his own party; he should resign because he has let this country down and broken his promise to help the poorest in our society.
That is the main reason why he should go, and go quickly.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Proact Bingo
An insider tells me that there is a new game that is being played by attendees at any meeting with Assembly Ministers, namely ProAct bingo
i.e. how many times the Minister or his/her officials will actually mention the ProAct scheme during the meeting.
It should be funny but it isn't, especially when the Assembly Government has actually failed to come up with anything else of note to deal specifically with the recession since the ProAct scheme was announced over six months ago.
All of their other initiatives are either those that were planned years ago, such as the JEREMIE fund, or rehashes of previous schemes such as the "new" local investment funds which are a copy of the funds run by local authorities under the Objective 1 scheme.
It demonstrates, unfortunately, that the Labour-Plaid Assembly Government has completely run out of ideas only halfway through its term and that the recession will continue to hit the country hard over the coming months, despite billions of European funding and the so called 'devolution dividend'.
And if anyone doubts that things are not going to get worse, then the last week has demonstrated that companies are continuing, or are considering, shedding jobs all across Wales:
With unemployment set to hit 150,000 by the end of the year, it is time that we had a coherent strategy from the Assembly Government which does not consist of a one-trick pony such as ProAct, however worthy its intentions.
Some have argued that politicians' hands are tied by the fact that they have to operate within a "safety first" culture within the civil service in Wales.
Certainly, that case can be made with increasing evidence of delay and bureaucracy in the implementation of European funded projects, a complete breakdown in communications between officials and companies (so nobody knows which business is the next one under threat) and a reluctance to back major investment projects by blue chip companies.
Whether this is true or not is irrelevant, as the buck stops with politicians, not civil servants.
Indeed, if some of those top civil servants remain reluctant to help Ministers to get this country out of recession, then their political masters should have the courage to ask them to make way for those who will make a difference and create a 'can do' culture that can finally get this country out of recession.
i.e. how many times the Minister or his/her officials will actually mention the ProAct scheme during the meeting.
It should be funny but it isn't, especially when the Assembly Government has actually failed to come up with anything else of note to deal specifically with the recession since the ProAct scheme was announced over six months ago.
All of their other initiatives are either those that were planned years ago, such as the JEREMIE fund, or rehashes of previous schemes such as the "new" local investment funds which are a copy of the funds run by local authorities under the Objective 1 scheme.
It demonstrates, unfortunately, that the Labour-Plaid Assembly Government has completely run out of ideas only halfway through its term and that the recession will continue to hit the country hard over the coming months, despite billions of European funding and the so called 'devolution dividend'.
And if anyone doubts that things are not going to get worse, then the last week has demonstrated that companies are continuing, or are considering, shedding jobs all across Wales:
- Anglesey - 500 staff at Anglesey Aluminium have all received letters warning them that their jobs at the Holyhead plant are at risk
- Bridgend - 279 jobs are to be lost after the Dairy Farmers of Britain (DFB) closed its Bridgend plant
- Cardiff - 100 jobs to go at Lloyds TSB
- Denbighshire - more than 300 jobs go as the Indesit factory closes in Bodelwyddan
- Wrexham- Air Products are considering closing their factory with the loss of 200 jobs
With unemployment set to hit 150,000 by the end of the year, it is time that we had a coherent strategy from the Assembly Government which does not consist of a one-trick pony such as ProAct, however worthy its intentions.
Some have argued that politicians' hands are tied by the fact that they have to operate within a "safety first" culture within the civil service in Wales.
Certainly, that case can be made with increasing evidence of delay and bureaucracy in the implementation of European funded projects, a complete breakdown in communications between officials and companies (so nobody knows which business is the next one under threat) and a reluctance to back major investment projects by blue chip companies.
Whether this is true or not is irrelevant, as the buck stops with politicians, not civil servants.
Indeed, if some of those top civil servants remain reluctant to help Ministers to get this country out of recession, then their political masters should have the courage to ask them to make way for those who will make a difference and create a 'can do' culture that can finally get this country out of recession.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Wales poorer than Poland
Earlier this week, many would have been horrified to read that some parts of Wales are officially worse off economically than areas within the former Soviet Bloc such as rural Poland.
A report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) showed that Wales remained one of the poorest nations in Europe and that, despite billions of pounds of European funding, the wealth gap between Wales and the rest of the UK had actually widened.
Drawing on the latest GVA data - which track the prosperity levels of the various nations and regions of the UK and which this blog has reported on previously – the OECD reported that the GVA per head for London in 2007 was 152 per cent of the UK average as compared to Wales at 75 per cent, the worst performance of any UK region. A decade earlier, London was 138 per cent of average prosperity of the UK in 1997 whilst Wales was 80 per cent.
Ironically for those who lambast the previous government’s regional policies, the average annual GVA growth rates for all regions apart from London was higher between 1989 and 1997 than over the last decade.
Therefore, the analysis of Gross Value Added (GVA) rates between 1997 and 2007 reveals that the gap between London and other parts of the UK has actually widened under the current Labour administration, with Wales among the hardest hit.
During the period 1997-2007, the London economy grew in overall terms by 91 per cent as compared to a growth of only 54 per cent for Wales. The UK economy grew by 69 per cent. This suggests that if the Wales’ growth had kept pace with the UK average over the last decade, an extra £4.2 billion would have been generated in the Welsh economy.
What on earth has gone wrong?
After all, devolution was supposed to give Wales the powers to determine its own policies for economic development that would be separate from Whitehall? More importantly, the creation of a new devolved body coincided with the financial bonanza of billions of pounds of European funding being made available to boost the Welsh economy.
Rather than admitting that there remain deep rooted structural problems within the Welsh economy and, more importantly, developing strategies to address them, it is becoming clear that successive Assembly Governments have been in a constant state of denial about the declining state of the Welsh economy for years.
One visible example is the fact that our once powerful manufacturing industry has lost tens of thousands of jobs and yet politicians are happy to take a ‘not me guv’ attitude and simply blame globalisation for our ills. The fact that they could have encouraged greater productivity, higher levels of research and development, more skills and training and higher levels of investment in process technologies for the industry, seems to have completely passed them by.
Rather than working with and listening to the private sector, the Assembly Government seems content to continue with the current status quo which has resulted in the disastrous economic performance of our economy during the last decade.
The most visible example of this inability to make the most of business expertise and experience is in the management of the European Structural Funds, where there has been minimal involvement by the private sector in the development and delivery of regeneration programmes such as those provided through £2 billion of European funding.
In fact, during the last major funding programme (known as Objective 1), statistics show that only 13 per cent of the £1.3 billion programme earmarked for the poorest parts of Wales went to private sector projects between 2000 and 2006. In contrast, over half of the available funding went to public sector backed projects.
Whilst promises have been made to ensure greater interaction with the private sector, this has not materialised with the £2 billion programme of funding for the period 2007-2013. To date, only 19 per cent of the expressions of interest for money under the current Convergence funding scheme have come from the private sector i.e. 34 expressions of interest in new projects have been received from the private sector as compared to 30 from the public sector, 66 from the Assembly Government and 46 from the voluntary sector.
More worryingly, many are now concerned that the majority of European funds, rather than adding anything additional, are being largely used to subsidise existing Assembly Government programmes and that private sector organisations, who could and should be leading innovative new projects that could make a difference to the Welsh economy, are being turned off by the massive bureaucracy and increasing delays in making decisions on any applications.
Given this sorry state of affairs where the businesses – the wealth creators in our economy - are essentially being crowded out by public sector bodies such as the Assembly Government, it is no wonder that the gap in prosperity between Wales and many other parts of Europe is growing.
Certainly, that needs to change, and change quickly, if we are to start closing the prosperity gap with the rest of the UK over the next few years.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Fast Growth 50 2009 launched
At a time when the country is suffering the deepest recession since the Second World War, I am proud to launch the Wales Fast Growth 50 again to demonstrate the best of Welsh business.
The launch video with Sion Barry of the Western Mail can be found here
At a time when the Welsh economy is suffering, I believe that the Wales Fast Growth 50 remains as the most visible reminder of the enterprise and innovation that still exists within our business sector. Despite these difficult times, there are still Welsh companies which are taking advantage of opportunities in the marketplace, creating wealth and employment within their local communities.
The impact of a small group of companies should not be underestimated. Since we started with the first publication in 1999, 317 firms have appeared on the ten lists published in the Western Mail. As with all dynamic economies, some businesses have fallen by the wayside. However, it is estimated that, together, these fast growth companies have created around 15,000 jobs and have generated around £3.8 billion of additional turnover into the Welsh economy, much of which is spent on local goods and services.
First published by the Western Mail in 1999, this unique initiative has become firmly established as the list of business success which entrepreneurs across Wales aspire. Up to now, the list has been limited to SMEs – those employing less than 250 employees - but after a decade, I have decided to change the criteria to include all Welsh business, regardless of size.
When we first started the project eleven years ago, the main focus of policymakers in Government was to attract large inward investors to Wales and the small firm sector was largely ignored. That is why we set up this project – to highlight the best of small businesses in Wales. However, I believe that during these recessionary times, we need to celebrate businesses of all sizes and, therefore, for the first time since the project started, I am encouraging every Welsh business to apply for this year’s Fast Growth 50 project.”
The 2009 list of the fastest growing firms in Wales will appear in a special supplement, sponsored by the University of Wales’ Global Academy, which will be published by the Western Mail on Wednesday, November 4th 2009.
There will also be a special dinner which will take place at the Holland House Hotel on October 30th 2009. Awards will be presented to the fastest growing firms in each of the key sectors of the Welsh economy, as well as individual awards for sustainable long term growth and, of course, the fastest growing firm in Wales.
This exclusive event, open to only the category sponsors and the fast growth firms, has become one of the most prestigious in the Welsh business calendar and, yet again, it promises to be a showcase of the best of Welsh enterprise for all attending.
Unlike many other business award ceremonies, it will highlight the best of Welsh growth firms from all parts of the nation and from all sectors. More importantly, the winning businesses will not be assessed by any individual judges but by their performance in the marketplace and their growth in sales during the last three years. The award sponsors will be announced in the Western Mail later this month.
To qualify for the Fast Growth 50 2009 competition, firms should:
- Be independent and privately held.
- Had sales of at least £250,000 in 2006
- Be based in Wales
Rankings will be based on percentage growth of revenues from 2006 to 2008.
The closing date for entries is July 10th 2009.
For further information, contact fastgrowth50@wales.ac.uk
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Remembering the D-day landings
Over last weekend, the remaining few gathered in France to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landings.As this was a poignant reminder of the events that turned the outcome of the Second World War, many will have been disappointed by the snub from the French Government to Her Majesty the Queen, who herself served in the forces during the war.
By not inviting the Head of State of the United Kingdom, President Sarkozy has been accused of demoting our country’s sacrifices in liberating his own and, worse still, of seemingly basing his entire history of the Normandy landings on the film “Saving Private Ryan” in order to curry favour with his American guests.
Of course, no-one should deny that American troops played a major role in the D-Day landings and that thousands lost their lives to liberate France. However, it is a sad day when a major European statesman, for his own political ends, deliberately understates the role played by the British and the Canadians.
Worst of all, it would seem that the British Government has contributed to the snub by the French President, by initially stating that the 65th anniversary was not sufficiently significant to support properly and then backtracking furiously to ensure that a member of the Royal family was invited after the public furore surrounding the Queen’s omission from the invitation list.
In doing so, our politicians have unwittingly acquiesced to the rewriting of history by Hollywood and by European politicians who are more than happy to downplay the role played by British troops.
The facts, of course, paint a different picture.
Whilst two of the five landing beaches were American (Omaha and Utah), the other three beaches, namely Gold, Juno and Sword, were allocated to the British Second Army (which included the Canadian 3rd Division). The five non-American divisions (four British and one Canadian) also contributed more troops to the campaign than the five American divisions which took part.
Significantly, the critical support needed to ensure that the landings were successful came mainly from British forces, including reconnaissance by commandoes of the beaches and landing sites, the bombing of strategic targets by the RAF, and the attacking of German ships in the English Channel by the Royal Navy. Finally, and most importantly, both the Royal Navy and the Merchant Navy supplied the ships which carried the invasion force over to France, including those to the American landing sites.
Indeed, my own grandfather served on the SS Amsterdam which supported the D-Day landings on Omaha beach by being one of the ships which delivered the landing crafts and their American troops to the coast (see picture above).
Once that task was completed, the SS Amsterdam was refitted as a hospital ship to be able to take the thousands of wounded out of France and back to Southampton for treatment.
However, on August 6th 1944, on the way back to Britain with a full load of wounded troops, the ship struck a mine and went down in under 8 minutes with the loss of 106 lives, including that of my grandfather. Here is an account of its sinking by one of its young crew, which I only discovered last week.
Whilst President Sarkozy should hang his head in shame for turning this moving ceremony into a roadshow for his own personal political benefit, our own Government, allegedly so complicit by doing nothing to deal with this diplomatic gaffe, must now ensure that it never happens again, and ensure that every future remembrance ceremony must include our Head of State to represent those who gave so much to ensure the freedom of Europe.
The thousands of British servicemen and merchant seamen who died during the summer of 1944 in securing those beaches deserve no less.
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Quote of the day
"I think it sends a very clear message to everybody in Wales. If you don't vote Labour, if for example you vote Plaid Cymru, you will get the Tories.
Peter Hain after Labour's worst result in a Welsh election since 1918
Yes, Peter, this is exactly what happened after the last Assembly election!
Given the drivel that has been written on his now defunct Aneurin Glyndwr website, Labour just don't get it and this is why they lost heavily in Wales.
When will he, from the comfort of his large house in Neath, wake up and smell the flowers? It isn't about class war and those 'nasty Tories' anymore.
It isn't about public service cuts, especially when his own government will have impose half a billion pounds of cuts on the Assembly for next year.
It is about how his Government have let down the most vulnerable in society, the mess they have made of the economy, the thousands of well-paid manufacturing jobs they have lost through inaction and the fact that Wales, despite billions of pounds of taxpayers' spending, remains bottom of the prosperity league table.
With such words of wisdom, you can see exactly why this great man was brought back into the Cabinet with a "new vision" for Welsh Labour.
Doesn't say much about the PM's views of the talents of the other 29 Labour MPs in Wales, does it?
Monday, June 08, 2009
Investing in skills to get us out of recession
Last Wednesday, I was in Llandudno giving a speech to the Colegau Cymru/Fforwm conference, the annual gathering of further education colleges of Wales.
While discussing the general state of the economy, the real message I wanted to put across was that of the importance of investment in skills and training in ensuring that we not only survive this recession, but are better prepared when we hopefully begin to emerge out of it sometime in the second half of next year.
Ironically, the very same morning when I was talking about the dangers of unemployment in Wales hitting 150,000 by the end of the year, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation was publishing a damning indictment of the regeneration policies of the successive Assembly Governments since 1999.
Essentially, the report shows that much of the economic gains experienced by the most deprived areas in Wales were built on quicksand and instead of benefiting from the funds provided, they are now experiencing unemployment and benefit claims at levels last seen during the 1990s.
This is despite spending more than £2.5 billion of funds provided by European Objective One funding and matched public and private sector contributions, as well as hundreds of millions of more of Assembly money during the last ten years
Therefore, it would seem that any of the temporary gains in employment and prosperity have been largely unsustainable, especially within the South Wales Valleys.
More critically, there has been an abject failure in dealing with any of the traditional unemployment blackspots that have blighted some local communities for decades.
For example, the claimant rate in Blaenau Gwent is the highest for any local authority in the UK and all South Wales Valley authorities have some of the highest proportion of claimants in Wales.
Perhaps the real tragedy of the report is the finding that half of those who are unemployed in Wales are below the age of 25.
Indeed, at a time when 6% of all working-age adults in 2008 were unemployed, the comparable rate for 16-24 year olds was 16%, creating a potential timebomb for the future of the communities in which they live.
Of course, at a time when we have a public sector deficit in the UK of £175bn, politicians will turn around and say that, despite the best intentions, there is no money available to invest in these areas and that everyone must feel the pain of the recession.
Given this doom-laden scenario, it is easy to forget that despite public sector cuts looming, Wales is in the extremely fortunate position of having £2 billion of European funding that is ring-fenced for the development of the Welsh economy.
I say fortunate because we have only received this money because we are one of the poorest nations in the European Union.
Of this £2 billion fund, 40%, or approximately £800 million, has been earmarked for skills development under the European Social Fund programme.
However, it has been argued that despite the programme being initiated over two years ago, very little of this has found its way to skills providers such as universities or, more relevantly for those groups of unemployed young people, further education colleges.
Indeed, the report from the last economic summit stated that not one project led by the FE sector have been approved to date. At a time when Wales is crying out for skilled workers, colleges are being frozen out of the last great opportunity to kick-start the Welsh economy.
That is clearly unacceptable at a time when the Government needs to make every effort to support our most deprived communities which are being hardest hit by the current recession.
Remember, this is not a Whitehall issue but one for us in Wales, especially when we are blessed with devolved powers for economic development, education and skills, billions of additional funding from Europe and some of the best quality further education colleges in the UK.
Indeed, I believe that despite the gloom of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report, Wales has the potential for real recovery if only our politicians had the courage to finally make a real commitment to a significant investment in skills and education and adopt an innovative and realistic approach to our current problems.
While discussing the general state of the economy, the real message I wanted to put across was that of the importance of investment in skills and training in ensuring that we not only survive this recession, but are better prepared when we hopefully begin to emerge out of it sometime in the second half of next year.
Ironically, the very same morning when I was talking about the dangers of unemployment in Wales hitting 150,000 by the end of the year, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation was publishing a damning indictment of the regeneration policies of the successive Assembly Governments since 1999.
Essentially, the report shows that much of the economic gains experienced by the most deprived areas in Wales were built on quicksand and instead of benefiting from the funds provided, they are now experiencing unemployment and benefit claims at levels last seen during the 1990s.
This is despite spending more than £2.5 billion of funds provided by European Objective One funding and matched public and private sector contributions, as well as hundreds of millions of more of Assembly money during the last ten years
Therefore, it would seem that any of the temporary gains in employment and prosperity have been largely unsustainable, especially within the South Wales Valleys.
More critically, there has been an abject failure in dealing with any of the traditional unemployment blackspots that have blighted some local communities for decades.
For example, the claimant rate in Blaenau Gwent is the highest for any local authority in the UK and all South Wales Valley authorities have some of the highest proportion of claimants in Wales.
Perhaps the real tragedy of the report is the finding that half of those who are unemployed in Wales are below the age of 25.
Indeed, at a time when 6% of all working-age adults in 2008 were unemployed, the comparable rate for 16-24 year olds was 16%, creating a potential timebomb for the future of the communities in which they live.
Of course, at a time when we have a public sector deficit in the UK of £175bn, politicians will turn around and say that, despite the best intentions, there is no money available to invest in these areas and that everyone must feel the pain of the recession.
Given this doom-laden scenario, it is easy to forget that despite public sector cuts looming, Wales is in the extremely fortunate position of having £2 billion of European funding that is ring-fenced for the development of the Welsh economy.
I say fortunate because we have only received this money because we are one of the poorest nations in the European Union.
Of this £2 billion fund, 40%, or approximately £800 million, has been earmarked for skills development under the European Social Fund programme.
However, it has been argued that despite the programme being initiated over two years ago, very little of this has found its way to skills providers such as universities or, more relevantly for those groups of unemployed young people, further education colleges.
Indeed, the report from the last economic summit stated that not one project led by the FE sector have been approved to date. At a time when Wales is crying out for skilled workers, colleges are being frozen out of the last great opportunity to kick-start the Welsh economy.
That is clearly unacceptable at a time when the Government needs to make every effort to support our most deprived communities which are being hardest hit by the current recession.
Remember, this is not a Whitehall issue but one for us in Wales, especially when we are blessed with devolved powers for economic development, education and skills, billions of additional funding from Europe and some of the best quality further education colleges in the UK.
Indeed, I believe that despite the gloom of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report, Wales has the potential for real recovery if only our politicians had the courage to finally make a real commitment to a significant investment in skills and education and adopt an innovative and realistic approach to our current problems.
Conservatives win the European election in Wales
Bloody hell!
I think will be the reaction from most of Wales to the result tonight although, as I said earlier, there has been a lot of hard work undertaken by Matt and his Welsh team to make sure that this happened.
This was an absolutely dreadful result for Labour and remember that a significant number of traditional Conservative voters - and those who would normally vote for the Party - will have voted for UKIP in the European election and will revert back at the General election.
As for Plaid, their supporters will be terribly disappointed, especially as their media machine has been busy telling everyone they would win the second seat from Labour. The question for them is whether the coalition with Labour in Cardiff Bay is actually affecting their vote as an alternative to the Government.
I also hope that both the BBC and the Western Mail will learn lessons from this result as both have been listening a bit too much to the Plaid spinmeisters not only during this election, but also during the last two years since the Labour.
Perhaps it's time to give the Conservatives a fair break, although somehow I doubt that will happen!
I think will be the reaction from most of Wales to the result tonight although, as I said earlier, there has been a lot of hard work undertaken by Matt and his Welsh team to make sure that this happened.
This was an absolutely dreadful result for Labour and remember that a significant number of traditional Conservative voters - and those who would normally vote for the Party - will have voted for UKIP in the European election and will revert back at the General election.
As for Plaid, their supporters will be terribly disappointed, especially as their media machine has been busy telling everyone they would win the second seat from Labour. The question for them is whether the coalition with Labour in Cardiff Bay is actually affecting their vote as an alternative to the Government.
I also hope that both the BBC and the Western Mail will learn lessons from this result as both have been listening a bit too much to the Plaid spinmeisters not only during this election, but also during the last two years since the Labour.
Perhaps it's time to give the Conservatives a fair break, although somehow I doubt that will happen!
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Latest news from the European elections
Rumours are reaching me that the Conservative Party has won the popular vote in the Welsh European elections. This is allegedly the first time this has happened in any major election in Wales since 1918.
Labour has retained second place and Plaid has come in third. UKIP, it would seem, have beaten the Liberal Democrats to the fourth seat.
Have just spoken to my better half, who is standing in Cardiff West at the next Parliamentary election.
It would seem that Labour have just scraped the votes in the constituency by around 150 votes from the Conservatives but that UKIP took around 2,000 votes (and you can guess from which party!)
The worst aspect is that BNP allegedly got 800 votes and this is Cardiff West, one of the most cosmopolitan areas in Wales.
More later if I hear anything further
Labour has retained second place and Plaid has come in third. UKIP, it would seem, have beaten the Liberal Democrats to the fourth seat.
Have just spoken to my better half, who is standing in Cardiff West at the next Parliamentary election.
It would seem that Labour have just scraped the votes in the constituency by around 150 votes from the Conservatives but that UKIP took around 2,000 votes (and you can guess from which party!)
The worst aspect is that BNP allegedly got 800 votes and this is Cardiff West, one of the most cosmopolitan areas in Wales.
More later if I hear anything further
Gordon's big lie
At a Labour Activists' meeting this afternoon, the Prime Minister said the following:
“If we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.”
This message of reducing inequality in society would be honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power.
Take the following four examples:
Whilst Labour politicians bleat incessantly that the 'global' recession is everyone else's fault, the simple fact of the matter remains - they have squandered hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on initiative after initiative and yet the poorest in our society are not only no better off, but in some instances, are worst off (and that was before we experienced our current economic woes of the last few months).
The Prime Minister shouldn't resign because he is losing interanl support within his party, he should resign because he has let this country down and broken his promise to help the poorest in our society.
That is the main reason why he should go, and go quickly.
“If we believe that people should be responsible and people should act fairly and we should be fair to others, then it is our duty to make sure in our politics, in our economy, in our society, that’s what happens.”
This message of reducing inequality in society would be honourable if only the Labour Party, under his economic stewardship, had not failed so miserably at this task since being in power.
Take the following four examples:
- Education - thanks to Labour's introduction of tuition fees, the proportion of working class students going to university has declined
- Personal wealth - According to data from the Department for Work and Pensions, Britain under Gordon Brown is a more unequal country than at any time since modern records began in the early 1960s - since the 2005 election, the incomes of the poor have fallen and those of the rich have risen
- Regional economic disparities - The relative prosperity gap between between London and other parts of the UK has widened in the period 1997-2007, with the poorest regions such as Wales among the hardest hit.
- The recession - whilst the more prosperous parts of the UK are surviving, it seems that those areas hardest hit by the current recession are our poorest areas, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Whilst Labour politicians bleat incessantly that the 'global' recession is everyone else's fault, the simple fact of the matter remains - they have squandered hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers' money on initiative after initiative and yet the poorest in our society are not only no better off, but in some instances, are worst off (and that was before we experienced our current economic woes of the last few months).
The Prime Minister shouldn't resign because he is losing interanl support within his party, he should resign because he has let this country down and broken his promise to help the poorest in our society.
That is the main reason why he should go, and go quickly.
Sir Alan Sugar and BBC impartiality
It would seem that Sir Alan Sugar may be regretting his hasty decision to 'join' the UK Government as their enterprise championczar as it emerges that the BBC is now examining whether he should continue as the star of the Apprentice.
With the next series due to start in March 2010 - two months before the likely date of the General Election if Brown survives - it would clearly be a breach of the so-called "impartiality" of the BBC if such a prominent supporter of the Government was given airtime.
I don't think Sir Alan has thought this through properly, a trait for which he would probably be fired for in his own series.
If you had a choice between being the host of one the BBC's most popular programmes or being a bit part player in a failing government, which one would you choose?
Anyway, perhaps it is time for Sir Alan to hand over to someone else as the format is becoming slightly tired.
Potential successors could be Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou (Easyjet), Jacqueline Gold (Ann Summers) or even Sir James Dyson (who may well get the contestants to something more constructive and enterprising).
However, my vote for anew host would go to Michael O' Leary of RyanAir - if he can treat his passengers in the way that he does, imagine how he would treat the poor contestants? Now that would be a TV programme I wouldn't want to miss.
p.s. I would hardly call it on the same scale, but on a personal note, I was essentially banned by BBC Wales from acting as an academic or business commentator when I was selected as a candidate in 2006. Prior to that, I was probably doing commentary for both Welsh and English TV and radio two to three times per month. Oh well, that's politics!
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Alan Clark and the toppling of a Prime Minister
As mentioned earlier this week, am currently re-reading the Alan Clark diaries.
This entry from the 19th November 1990, two days before Margaret Thatcher was toppled, seems especially pertinent to how the House of Commons will probably behave next week as the Parliamentary Labour Party struggles with the decision of whether they should dump the Prime Minister.
"The whole house is in ferment. Little groups, conclaves everywhere. Only in the dining room does some convention seem to have grown (I presume because no one trusts their dining companions) that we don't talk 'shop'...But in the corridors is is all furtive, whispering and glancing over shoulders. The institutional confidence, that special grimacing style of speech out of the corner of the mouth, eyes focusing in another direction, is now it seems the only way of communication".
This entry from the 19th November 1990, two days before Margaret Thatcher was toppled, seems especially pertinent to how the House of Commons will probably behave next week as the Parliamentary Labour Party struggles with the decision of whether they should dump the Prime Minister.
"The whole house is in ferment. Little groups, conclaves everywhere. Only in the dining room does some convention seem to have grown (I presume because no one trusts their dining companions) that we don't talk 'shop'...But in the corridors is is all furtive, whispering and glancing over shoulders. The institutional confidence, that special grimacing style of speech out of the corner of the mouth, eyes focusing in another direction, is now it seems the only way of communication".
Friday, June 05, 2009
Real politics
Whilst the speculation and gossip has focused on the Prime Minister and his ever changing cabinet, the real politics of winning elections is going on elsewhere in the country.
Whilst there has been enormous spin regarding the decline of the Conservative Party, the local election results in England show a very different story.
The Conservative Party has won an additional seven councils, namely Staffordshire, Lancashire and Derbyshire from Labour (which had run all three since 1981), Devon and Somerset from the Lib Dems, Warwickshire from no overall control and the new Central Bedfordshire unitary authority.
In total, the Conservative Party now has an additional 217 councillors with a local political base from which to campaign for the next general election and, most importantly, they are based across all parts of England. This follows similar successes in Wales last year.
Creating a strong local activist base is what wins close run seats and as supporters desert the Labour Party, this will have a real impact.
That is the real story for today and a result which, although largely ignored by the press, sets the foundation for success when the Prime Minister finally decides to call an election.
Whilst there has been enormous spin regarding the decline of the Conservative Party, the local election results in England show a very different story.
The Conservative Party has won an additional seven councils, namely Staffordshire, Lancashire and Derbyshire from Labour (which had run all three since 1981), Devon and Somerset from the Lib Dems, Warwickshire from no overall control and the new Central Bedfordshire unitary authority.
In total, the Conservative Party now has an additional 217 councillors with a local political base from which to campaign for the next general election and, most importantly, they are based across all parts of England. This follows similar successes in Wales last year.
Creating a strong local activist base is what wins close run seats and as supporters desert the Labour Party, this will have a real impact.
That is the real story for today and a result which, although largely ignored by the press, sets the foundation for success when the Prime Minister finally decides to call an election.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
James Purnell resigns - Gordon Brown next?
Just got back from a few days away and the political scene seems to be heading into meltdown.
According to the latest reports, James Purnell has quit the Cabinet and told Gordon Brown to stand down to save the Labour Party a “fighting chance of winning”.
Instant comments here from the Guardian, BBC News and the Times.
Ironically, I am currently reading the Alan Clark Diaries and I am just coming up to the section decribing the days leading to the end of Mrs Thatcher's Government.
Deja vu dosen't even begin to describe the similarities and if history is anything to go by, it is highly likely that there will be a new leader of the Labour Party sooner rather than later.
According to the latest reports, James Purnell has quit the Cabinet and told Gordon Brown to stand down to save the Labour Party a “fighting chance of winning”.
Instant comments here from the Guardian, BBC News and the Times.
Ironically, I am currently reading the Alan Clark Diaries and I am just coming up to the section decribing the days leading to the end of Mrs Thatcher's Government.
Deja vu dosen't even begin to describe the similarities and if history is anything to go by, it is highly likely that there will be a new leader of the Labour Party sooner rather than later.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
More jobs lost in North Wales
Have just spent the last couple of days in North Wales, where I was giving one of the keynotes at the FFORWM Conference in Llandudno
Clearly, the message is that with 150,000 estimated to be out of work in Wales by the end of the year, skills and training are even more important when we eventually come out of the recession.
As we saw today with the closure of Indesit in Kinmel Bay and the loss of over 300 jobs, the recession is not going away just yet within the region.
Clearly, the message is that with 150,000 estimated to be out of work in Wales by the end of the year, skills and training are even more important when we eventually come out of the recession.
As we saw today with the closure of Indesit in Kinmel Bay and the loss of over 300 jobs, the recession is not going away just yet within the region.
Monday, June 01, 2009
Glyndwr University and the North Wales economy
We are often told by politicians that Wales should become a small clever country that punches above its weight in an increasingly competitive global environment.
To achieve this, there must be investment in knowledge-based industries, which means not only attracting the best companies here to Wales but developing our own home grown businesses in key areas such as biotechnology, computing and clean technologies.
As the previous blog entry showed, that strategy took a massive blow last week with the news that Deepstream Technologies had been forced to go into administration, not only putting eighty well-paid jobs at risk but also risking the future viability of creating a strong high technology economy within North Wales.
Despite this, there are signs that one organisation in North Wales is determined to continue to build the foundations for a knowledge-based economy within the region.
Glyndwr University has recently announced plans for the creation of a knowledge industry corridor, linking the Wrexham campus with the OPTIC high technology incubator at St Asaph. This will create an environment to create wealth in key knowledge sectors within the economy and may provide a real focus for Assembly support in supporting the development of the region over the next decade.
Glyndwr University is to be congratulated in showing real leadership by taking such an initiative forward during this depressed economic times. Despite being a relatively new university, it remains committed to investing in the development of its research capacity and has recently advertised for two professors in the areas of lean manufacturing and composites materials, both of which will be directly applicable to the critically important business sector in North East Wales which remains the economic powerhouse of the region.
Despite this considerable financial commitment, it is not appreciated by everyone in Wales and many believe that there remains an inate sense of academic superiority which looks down on smaller universities and their role in developing the research capacity of this nation. This is compounded by the belief that if you haven’t been in existence for over a hundred years, then you cannot make any worthwhile contribution to higher education.
This is in stark contrast to the attitudes of academic policymakers within some of the economic powerhouses of the world.
For example, I recently visited Hong Kong and met with the senior staff of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST). Since its official opening in October 1991, this institution has established itself as an intellectual powerhouse and is now one of the top forty universities in the world. Compare this to the best placed Welsh university, namely Cardiff at 133rd.
Within eighteen years, HKUST has gone from being an idea on the drawing board to one of the best institutions globally. Its achievement demonstrates unequivocally that, with the right funding and political support, you can create and develop academic excellence from very humble beginnings.
It is certainly an example to institutions such as Glyndwr University which, through investing in new professors and developing important initiatives such as the Knowledge Industry Corridor, is showing that it has the ambition to be equally as successful in the future.
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