Welsh academia and politics

As I am off travelling to the Far East for a few days, I thought I would establish an open thread for the first time until I am back on the blogosphere.

As probably the only 'tory in the lecture-room', I have always been intrigued by the political allegiances of others within the university world in Wales (or even those from Wales working in other parts of the academic world). I am particularly interested in those who have actually stood for political office.

So, if you have any names, please put them forward.

As a good academic, I will moderate this blog entry and check for veracity and accuracy!

Let me start you off with one from each of the four parties:

Professor Dylan Jones-Evans - Conservative and University of Wales

Dr Hywel Francis MP - Labour and formerly chair in continuing education

Professor Phil Cooke, Plaid Cymru and Cardiff University

Dr Alan Butt Philip, Liberal Democrats and Reader in European Integration at Bath University

Over to you!

Problems within WAG

Given Sunday's blog on Dafydd Wigley's comments regarding the role of the civil service in Wales, it would seem that at least individuals working for WAG agrees with his observations.

According to Western Mail, the 'whistleblower' alleges:

• Recent Ministerial refusal to meaningfully engage with the UK Government on stimulating bank lending to Wales’s businesses in favour of WAG lending of public money direct to business;
• hundreds of millions of pounds of European aid being diverted from the private sector into the continuation of longstanding, re-branded public sector schemes with poor track records;
• the much-trumpeted Single Investment Fund and WAG’s SME (small and medium enterprises) relationship manager support is only reaching a minuscule number of Welsh businesses;
• millions of pounds of funding intended for SMEs not being used and handed back;
  an expensive IT project to develop a customer relationship management system not delivering;
• major problems with the public transport concessionary fares scheme;
• ministers’ decision to reject connecting with the highly praised Business Link and Direct Gov websites, helping millions of individuals and businesses elsewhere in the UK, on the grounds that they are “too English” and would make the millions of pounds invested in WAG’s site look embarrassing;
• expensive staff events continuing at some of Wales’ best hotels regardless of the recession,
• the department’s staff having the least faith in senior management, according to staff survey results.

Of course, as the WAG's spokesperson says, this could be hearsay but there is only one way to resolve these allegations and that is to show unequivocally that they have no basis in truth whatsoever.

As most of the allegations concern finance and performance, that shouldn't be too difficult. They could even publish the results of the staff survey.

However, if WAG does not do that, then the opposition should ask some serious questions regarding each and every one of the allegations made.

Wigley's words

Dafydd Wigley and I have agreed and disagreed in equal measure during the last few years.

However, his article in last week's Daily Post is one that I cannot but endorse wholeheartedly.

Unfortunately, I only have access to the Welsh language version on the Daily Post website. I have therefore translated the relevant bits in the hope that they capture the spirit of his argument.

"If the Government is to maintain the current numbers of doctors, nurses and policemen, then the only possibility of creating any savings will be through a stunning change in the way that government operates and a new mindset within the Civil Service

I remember one very senior civil servant in Wales stating that he would rather make no decision whatsoever than making the wrong decision. Doesn’t that say it all!

We have to step back form the mindset which says that we cannot make a decision because of a lack of analysis - a mindset which leads to every subject being analysed a hundred times before any sort of decision is made – and which leads to unacceptable delays in decision making and thousands of staff hours devoted to complete the process. Decisions are taking in the private sector through processes that are more efficient, cheaper and quicker.

Bureaucracy needs to be cut back along with the amount of reports and documents emerging from Government and the collection of unnecessary information. We must release teachers, nurses and policemen from the never ending burden of filling in endless paperwork to produce statistical information that no one will read.

There will be a price to pay for such changes and this involves a higher risk as a result of making the wrong decision Those who are employed as managers within the public sector must take personal responsibility for decisions made."

There is very little I can disagree with in this excellent article.

Given this, perhaps Dafydd can explain why the Plaid-led economic development department responsible for key areas such as business support, infrastructure and European funding is drowning in bureaucracy, form filling and needless paperwork which is strangling the business sector.

Some of the horror stories I have heard include seven paper forms to be filled in before any support can be given to startups, 100 page business plans for European support projects, months before funding decisions are made and, worst of all, every small and insignificant decision having to be approved by senior directors before they can go ahead.

If his own Plaid Cymru ministerial colleagues cannot get their house in order, then what hope is there for the rest of the Labour dominated Assembly Government in ensuring that our public sector becomes more efficient and effective and, most importantly, provides quick and easy support to industry.

The Budget - a further reflection

During my first job as a research fellow at Durham University Business School in the early 1990s, we had a contract with one of the banks to develop a commentary on the Budget and its effect on the small business sector.

In pre-internet days, this was done by a team of 20 of us sitting through the afternoon going through hundreds of pages faxed to us from the Treasury. We would put our analysis together on the different sections up until 8pm and the report would be edited, sent to the printers and flown to London to be released formally at 9am to a business audience.

Most importantly, we would have had the opportunity to cover everything of interest in the report and there would be no sudden nasty shocks revealed in the small print later.

Today, with pre-Budget reports and leaked press releases, it is often wise not to comment in detail on anything in the Budget during the first couple of days apart from the main headlines.

Like many, my instant reaction to these headlines on Wednesday was one of shock at the £175 billion of public sector borrowing estimated for this year and incredulity that the Treasury were of the opinion that while the economy would decline by 3.5% in 2009 it would bounce back by nearly 5% over the two years 2010-11.

Two days later, it would seem the Chancellor was extremely optimistic with both forecasts.

In terms of the Government debt, the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggested it could be 2032 before the UK’s debt falls back to the 40% level which Gordon Brown established as the “golden rule” for acceptable government borrowing.

This is despite families potentially paying a minimum £1,400 a year as part of plans to ensure that public debt is back under control.

That level of borrowing could be reduced if we believed the Chancellor’s rosy outlook for 2010 and 2011.

Unfortunately, the three-month decline in prosperity of 1.9 per cent was worse than most economists predicted and was the sharpest fall in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) since 1979.

As a result, some are pointing to the International Monetary Fund’s prediction as the more accurate one – that the UK economy will slump by 4.1% in 2009 and a further 0.4% in 2010.

It is not only the GDP data that is worrying.

Hours before the Budget, statisticians announced unemployment had reached 2.1 million, or 6.7% of the working population, with some predicting a further 1.2 million jobs lost by the end of 2010, mainly private sector.

However, it is not only the private sector that will suffer.

With the Treasury stating current expenditure in public services will grow by only 0.7% in the three years from 2011 – half the level experienced under Conservatives in the 1980s – it has finally become clear the golden days of government spending are now over for a generation.
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And it will be regions such as Wales – overly dependent on the public sector – that will suffer the most over the coming decade.

Unfortunately for many in this country, this was a budget that was always going to be in denial of the real problems within the economy.

It did little to ensure that the banks will release more money to the small firm sector, or to support key sectors such as manufacturing and retailing.

Worst of all, it did little to cut taxes on businesses through either a reduction in corporation tax or a freezing of business rate.

Encouraging real investment and taking less money from millions of businesses struggling in the UK could have made a real difference to kick starting the economy and showed the Government believed in a partnership with the business community to drag this country back into economic growth.

Certainly, cutting taxes to businesses would have resulted in far more jobs than giving £1.5 billion to the Department of Work and Pensions.

Yet again, the Government has conveniently forgotten it is businesses that create wealth while civil servants spend it.

By focusing on populist policies more to do with electioneering than saving the economy, this budget will do nothing to alleviate the financial pain felt by millions of people and go down in history as a lost opportunity for a Government that has lost its way.

Cardiff University and Lifelong Learning

It seems that a row has broken out in Cardiff University over its Centre for Lifelong Learning.

According to a report in the BBC, there are plans to cut all teaching in arts and humanities at the Cardiff University Centre For Lifelong Learning with alleged implications for jobs at a time when there is a growing demand for adult education during a recession.

Should it be surprising that Cardiff University is abandoning its role in lifelong learning in Wales?

Not according to last week’s Times Higher, which leaked a memo from a meeting between David Grant, vice-chancellor of Cardiff, and the heads of school.

This memo stated that staff recruitment would be driven by the demands of the research excellence framework in the future, "not teaching" and that the "V-C left us with this message: a) we may be over-teaching in some areas; b) we may be teaching in areas that we shouldn't be".

The University states that it is consulting on this issue, but I hope that it does not take this step without a real consideration of the impact it will have on its local community.

Indeed, I gave evidence in February 2008 to the Enterprise and Learning Committee (and alongside the Vice Chancellor) where Dr Grant was eloquent and enthusiastic on the matter of Cardiff’s contribution to Wales.

Given his comments then, I hope that his university will reconsider this decision.

If not, then I have heard rumours that another academic institution may well step into the breach which would be highly embarrassing for Wales’ top university and its role in supporting Welsh society.

Bloggers are attenton seekers...

....so says an article in the Economist today which reveals the results of a paper presented at the Ropyal Economic Society annual conference.

According to the 'comments piece' (a posh blog),

"The authors explore the incentives that motivate people to blog and read others' blogs. They find evidence that bloggers trade off content and attention—"attention to one's blog is won by paying attention to other bloggers". There also seems to be a norm of reciprocity that you are penalised for violating. Those who do not adhere "are sanctioned with a lower number of readers". These findings will come as no surprise to dedicated bloggers. A common joke is that the only people who actually read blogs are other bloggers.

Difficult to disagree with such logic!

The Budget

Have been away in London for the last 24 hours and actually missed the budget live for the first time in a decade.

As I am doing a live panel tomorrow for businesses in Cardiff, I will probably blog in more detail later once I have read the full report.

However, my instant reaction is that of many others.

Shock and horror at the £175 billion of public sector borrowing this year.

Incredulity that the 50 per cent increase in the higher rate of tax is perceived as a vote winner (well, until the Conservative Party said that they would not commit to reversing the policy)

Enormous disappointment that nothing real was done to boost the business sector, such as a freeze in business rates or a cut in corporation tax.

Clearly, there is political capital to be made out of this budget but that can wait for another day. What is really worrying though is the news that the pound fell against both the dollar and the euro, which shows that investors are keeping out of the UK.

More frightening is the prospect that if investor confidence drains even further, then the Government will not be able to raise money to service its debts and then must go cap in hand to the IMF.

Retailing, the Budget and the recession

Whilst the whole of the UK economy has been damaged by the recession, it is generally accepted that the sector that has been hit hardest is retailing, which employs 11 per cent of the UK workforce and generates £278 billion per annum.

During the last few months, we have seen the demise of household names such as Woolworth's, MFI, and Adams and other shops have only survived through a process of heavy discounting which, in turn, has hit their bottom line and made survival more difficult.

There is also growing concern that some towns are being affected more than others during this retail slump.

For example, a recent study showed that Holyhead is the worst hit street in the UK, with 39 per cent of all shops in the high street being empty. Llangefni, the second major town on the island, is also in the top ten of so-called ‘ghost towns’ with just under a quarter of its shops empty.

So what should be done to alleviate this blight on our communities?

Some local authorities have already taken action and have encouraged vacant shops to be turned into art galleries, community centres and other public spaces, although organisations representing businesses have suggested that such policies are mere window dressing and instead want serious changes to encourage the resurrection of the retail sector.

The British Retail Consortium has argued that clauses which allow landlords to raise rents automatically should be scrapped and the Federation of Small Businesses has urged councils to no longer view parking as a way of generating revenue and should instead stimulate trade within smaller towns by charging less.

Small businesses have also urged the government to give planners discretionary powers to veto out-of-town shopping centres if there is a risk they could weaken the high street.

However, analysts believe that it is tomorrow's budget that could have the biggest effect on future recovery prospects for the retail sector.

In particular, retailers are looking for a freeze on all new business rate burdens which should be effective immediately although this decision to support retailers could be taken unilaterally by the Welsh Assembly Government as business rates is a devolved matter.

Given all of this, the question is whether the retail sector will recover during 2009?

In my opinion, it is still too early to say but in addition to the Chancellor’s budget, there are a number of results which will be announced this week from businesses such as Burberry, Debenhams, Tesco and WH Smith which will be the first indicator of how the high street has performed since the Christmas period.

Some are suggesting that spending will increase as shoppers, having saved money through reduced mortgage payments and low energy bills, are ready to start spending again. However, there are also indications that consumers are tightening their belts and are instead using these cash windfalls to pay off high debts.

At least in Wales, there was a silver lining last week for the retail sector as five closed Woolworth's stores in were taken over by the Original Factory Shop, a discount department store which sells clothes, toys, gifts, electrical goods and housewares.

Given that the stores were probably the largest in the high streets of all five towns, this development will at least helps to revitalise shopping and hopefully attract more consumers to shop within these areas.

We will have to wait and see whether this shows that the sector is finally getting back on its feet here in Wales but given that the retailing is a key sector in every town throughout the land, support from the Chancellor tomorrow is vital if it is to recover during the next six months.

Lost in translation

As I was walking home through Bute Park today, I saw this strange sign that seemed to be in a strange foreign language



That was until I looked across the road and saw the English equivalent:



Is it really that difficult to get this right?

If whoever is responsible can't be bothered to translate five words properly, then why bother when the translation probably makes more sense in Bulgarian.

The question is who owns these signs - the Royal Horticultural Society, which held its show in the park over the weekend) or the Lib-Dem/Plaid controlled Cardiff council which is responsible for safety in the park?

The Irish Economy

Last month, I wrote about the problems facing the Irish economy which, because of its over-reliance on property and construction, has seen a spectacular fall in its prosperity levels.

It would seem that the fate of our Celtic cousins has resulted in a recent spat between Labour and Plaid politicians over claims by nationalists that Ireland was the perfect model for an independent Wales.

As a result, statistics have been used selectively to make the case for and against such a proposition.

So what is the reality of the situation?

Certainly, Ireland has been hard hit by the economic recession, more so than many other economies in the European Union. Earlier this month, the Central Bank and Irish Financial Services Authority quarterly forecast was pessimistic in the extreme.

It suggested that GDP will fall by close to 7% in 2009 and is set to contract by a further 3% in 2010 when the rest of the world is set to recover. Overall, a historically unprecedented cumulative decline in GDP of over 12% is expected for the period 2008-2010.

More significantly, the spectre of unemployment will continue to haunt the Celtic Tiger with the proportion of those out of work set to average 12% in 2009 and 14% in 2010.

The Irish Government’s ability to spend its way out of this position remains limited, with a forecasted deficit of 12% of GDP, although through cuts in public sector expenditure, it is trying to keep this below a target of 9.5%.

Perhaps the biggest worry for Ireland is how the international community views its future economic prospects. This cannot be helped by the fact that the country was recently stripped by the credit agency Standard and Poor of its top AAA rating, with warnings that it could decline further if the Government failed to control public spending.

The positive news for the Irish economy is that this recession has forced a reality check within the country, and both the private and the public sectors have appreciated that there is a need to reduce its cost base rapidly as the government simply does not have any more money to give out.

Contrast this with the UK where politicians in both Cardiff Bay and Westminster are always asking for more public money to bail out the economy.

Will this be good news for Ireland once the recession is over?

I believe it will as the recession has forced Irish businesses to become even more competitive as they look to re-enter the export market.

More importantly, Ireland has already indicated that it continues to build on advantages such as having a well-educated workforce and considerable investment in research and development.

Its industrial base, unlike that of Wales, is focused on knowledge-based industries such as pharmaceuticals, information technology and services.

Therefore, I expect that, by 2012, the Celtic Tiger will not only be well on the way to economic recovery, but will be in a far better position to sustain this growth than over the past 10 years.

If we compare the Irish position to Wales, we mustn’t forget that education and economic development are both areas in which we have had devolved responsibility for nearly a decade, and yet the gap in prosperity between Wales and the UK continues to increase because of successive governments’ inability or reluctance to invest in developing skills and innovation and create an infrastructure which supports productivity.

Despite the billions of pounds of additional European funding, Wales has moved no further on in terms of its competitiveness relative to the rest of Britain.

Even though we have no powers over corporation tax, this should not have precluded Wales from investing more in the most important asset that any nation can have – its people.

For two years in the 1990s, I was fortunate enough to be a research fellow at University College Dublin on a project examining the competitive advantage of small peripheral regions. The developed during that study, and subsequently, showed that Ireland’s development during the past decade was a unique example of key factors – such as European funding, a proactive industrial strategy, low corporation tax and an educated workforce – all falling into place at the same time.

More importantly, there was a collective will across the whole of the nation to ensure that the country succeeded and that nothing would stand in its way in becoming the best economy in Europe.

For example, if there was a major inward investment project to be won, then everyone in the land – politicians, businesspeople, unions, academics and civil servants – would work together to move hell and high water and ensure that it happened.

Can anyone say the same is true of Wales today?

Therefore, those in politics who criticise the Irish do so at their peril as I believe that once they have sorted out their overdependence on property, their economy will come back stronger than ever before.

Equally, those who blindly advocate that Wales has to go the whole hog towards independence to emulate Irish success should also consider why many of the instruments already at our disposal – such as billions of pounds of European funding and responsibility for education and economic development – are still not being used efficiently and effectively to ensure that Wales maximises its potential as a nation.

Labour-Plaid to press ahead with Cathays Park refurbishment

It would seem that the Labour-Plaid Government are determined to press ahead with their controversial £42 million refurbishment of the Assembly's Cathays Park offices, despite accusations of insensitivity over the use of public funds at a time of recession,

According to the sell2wales website, "the Welsh Assembly Government, on behalf of The Welsh Ministers (The Client), requires a provider of Architectural Services to inform its development of change proposals and Outline Business Case for the modernisation of its core asset in Cathays Park, Cardiff"

The estimated cost of this 'exercise' is, according to the tender document, "in the region of £60K - £80K".

Do you believe that tens of thousands of pounds will be spent on an exercise that will not result in what Ministers and civil servants want?

No, nor do I.

Civil servants may argue that it is the correct business decision and could create some efficiencies gains, but the disproportionate cost will not resonate with the tens of thousands of Welsh workers who have lost their jobs during the last few months only to see politicians and civil servants feathering their own nests first.

At the very least, any such plans should be shelved until we come through the worst recession since the Second World War.

Smeargate continues

Another Sunday, another set of damaging revelations.

After a week when the Labour Party tried its best to contain the problems emanating from the 'resignation' of Damian McBride, it would seem that the whole edifice of this once great party is falling apart.

• Ed Balls, the schools secretary, used Damian McBride, the disgraced spin doctor, to smear ministerial rivals and advance his own ambitions, a Downing Street whistleblower has claimed.
• A former Labour MP has quit the party, saying Gordon Brown has betrayed the principles that inspired her to join. Left-wing Alice Mahon, 71, MP for Halifax from 1987-2005, was "absolutely scandalised" by the Damian McBride affair.
• The General Secretary of the Labour Party has denied claims he knew of the plot to smear senior Tories when he held meetings to set up a new website
• A ballot box containing votes for a key parliamentary selection contest was broken into at Labour's national headquarters in London.

A week is certainly a long time in politics.

The G20 meeting, which was to be used to relaunch Brown's flagging ratings, has been forgotten and this week's budget is unlikely to bring cheer to the majority of the general public.

Oh, and a new poll shows that the Conservatives are heading for a 120 seat majority

SNP adopts Welsh Conservative policy

Yesterday, the SNP Conference heard a proposal for a special Scottish loyalty points scheme to reward the purchase of Scottish produce in corner shops and supermarkets.

The proposal by SNP MSP Aileen Campbell for a "Saltire" label is similar to that in Ireland and is suggested that it can encourage shoppers to purchase Scottish produce, to support our farmers and food producers and to cut food miles.

I think this is a very worthwhile idea and hopefully the Scottish Parliament will adopt such a radical step to help local businesses.

However, I would say that wouldn't I, especially as I managed to get the Welsh Conservatives to adopt a similar scheme for Wales as official party policy in 2007, following earlier research I had undertaken in 2005.

As I said in January 2007,

"The Welsh Conservatives proposed introducing a new “Guaranteed Welsh” logo to promote Welsh produce and services. The scheme - similar to a system already operating in Ireland - would make it easier for consumers to support Welsh companies and safeguard jobs in Wales. I am proud to say that this new policy came from work I underook for the party to examine the rural economy, and I believe that the introduction of the new logo will be a 'powerful device' in promoting Welsh goods and services.It would also safeguard Welsh jobs and promote Welsh quality as well as become an instantly recognisable symbol for consumers, who would know that when they buy a product or service featuring the Guaranteed Welsh logo, they are supporting Welsh companies and Welsh workers".

As the Welsh Conservatives have recently adopted a similar business rates system to Scotland as official policy, a scheme that was introduced with the full support of the Scottish Conservatives, then some could argue that this is a fair tactic by the SNP.

However, the great mystery is why Plaid Cymru, the Nationalist Party in Wales, has not adopted either the Guaranteed Welsh scheme nor enhanced business rates since joining Labour in power nearly two years ago.

Smeargate - clean out the Augean stables

Is it just me or did yesterday's 'apology' from the Prime Minister seems slightly insincere and more of an attempt to shut down this whole storyline once and for all six days after the whole event broke?

This is just isn't good enough from the leader of this great country, especially as his supporters have now come to accept, as second nature, his unspoken approval to target any enemies, including those within their own party.

Clearly, the press seems to largely agree with this analysis, as some of the quotes below suggest:

"Gordon Brown finds his high ideals sucked down into the swamp. In seeking to dis-associate himself from his aide, Damian McBride, the prime minister has been tormented by a persistent problem - not of his making, but not of his rejecting either. That is that the conduct of politics today now appears to demand the kind of skills in character assassination displayed by Mr McBride in his series of e-mails to the former Labour aides, Derek Draper and Charlie Whelan."

John Lloyd, Financial Times

"Brown has become addicted to the demolition of opponents both internal and external. The origins of this run deeper than the tactics of guerrilla warfare he licensed again the Blairites in government. Brown was of the generation that had seen Labour lose repeatedly, and was determined to ensure it did not happen again. The Tories, he calculated, started with so many advantages, such as press support and backing from the City, that Labour would have to be twice as cunning and robust to destroy them. He and Peter, now Lord, Mandelson, were well ahead of Tony Blair on this, pioneering the techniques of rapid rebuttal, spin and an obsession with a strict adherence to the message."

Iain Martin, Daily Telegraph

The story so far: Damian McBride, a spin-doctoring aide very close to Mr Brown, devised a series of lurid smears about David Cameron, the Conservative leader, George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, his wife and others. They were meant for use on a scurrilous new website to be run by Derek Draper, a disgraced lobbyist turned psychotherapist turned re-disgraced internet propagandist, and were e-mailed to him from Mr McBride’s Downing Street address. Though the innuendoes were never deployed as intended, the e-mails were obtained by Paul Staines, a caustic anti-government blogger. Mr McBride resigned on April 11th. The aim of Mr Brown’s team since then has been to portray the sordid, if aborted, plot as aberrant freelancing by a rogue loner. It wasn’t. Mr McBride’s career, and the infantile antics that ended it, are hugely damaging precisely because they encapsulate some of the government’s most corrosive flaws. Some are noting that the Conservatives should be careful of not stretching this out and thus test voters patience. I disagree and, in my opinion, they should go hell for leather for a full independent inquiry into the role of the Cabinet Office in both the Smeargate affair and the Damien Green arrest to ensure that this culture of spin and innuendo is driven out once and for all from the highest office in the land.

Bagehot, the Economist

THE stink of a cover-up hangs over Downing Street. Cabinet Secretary Sir Gus O’Donnell rules out an inquiry into whether minister Tom Watson knew about the “Smeargate” emails. He says he is happy to accept the minister’s denials, and the case is closed. That might be good enough for Sir Gus. It isn’t for The Sun. How can we know the full facts without an investigation, which means examining ALL emails involved? After all, Labour allow everybody else’s emails to be snooped on. Tom Watson was at the heart of Gordon Brown’s operations. He was in charge of Damian McBride, the Downing Street public servant who planned to smear Tories with obscene lies. Mr Brown’s mealy-mouthed “regrets” are no apology at all. Now we learn it is all to be swept under the carpet. And Mr Brown wonders why faith in Labour is draining away.

The Sun Says, April 16th

As the sun sets on this Labour administration, there needs to be a new politics for the UK.

To set that tone, David Cameron needs to promise the electorate that the politicisation of the civil service ends with his election and that its independence, and its reputation, is restored.

Nothing else will do.

Cardiff City's economic potential

With the Welsh Assembly Government abandoning the Wales GB Rally and giving up one of its boxes at the Millennium Stadium, it would seem that our politicians have conveniently forgotten the economic benefits that sports can bring to a nation.

Thanks, therefore to Aled Blake of the Western Mail for an incisive article on what the promotion of Cardiff City to the premiership could do for the Cardiff-city region.

I was particularly taken by a comment in the article from an old mate of mine, Professor Tom Cannon, who said

"Frankly, the sky's the limit for Cardiff if the club gets promoted. Cardiff is a national capital, the potential is massive, particularly if the Welsh Assembly Government got behind Cardiff in terms of profile and in terms of image."

Tom, as normal, is spot on, but given the way that the Wales GB Rally has been treated and promises seemingly broken, I wouldn't hold my breath if I was a director of Cardiff City FC.

Powys

Two stories have emerged over the last couple of days which demonstrate the fragility of support for the rural economy in Wales, especially in Powys.

First of all is the news that Powys County Council is closing tourist information centres, thus undermining the attempts to attract more visitors to the area.

Secondly is the seemingly shambolic handling by WAG of business support services within the county.

Powys can ill afford such shenanigans.

Since Labour came to power in 1997, the average prosperity per head has fallen from 77 per cent of the UK average to 70 per cent of the UK average.

Contrast this Swansea which has grown from 76 per cent of the UK average to 81 per cent.

Yet Swansea is in receipt of billions of European Aid whilst Powys does not qualify for any support at all.

Powys, under Labour, has become the forgotten county of Wales and on the recent evidence, those in power are in no hurry to refresh their memories.

First Welsh Victim of Smeargate?

(Very) early this morning, I was trawling some of the main Welsh blogs and found that the "Welsh Ramblings" website, which has been accused by Labour bloggers of being run by Plaid Cymru staffers, was down and inaccessible.

Is this merely a technical hitch or is it the first victim of the tightening of rules over 'Smeargate'?

Certainly, we have heard nothing for weeks from "Pippa Wagstaff" which was allegedly run by Conservative staffers.

As someone who has always blogged openly under his own name, I have always been uncomfortable with anonymous blogging, especially when it is carried out by those employed by political parties in Wales.

There is a temptation to focus on unsubstantiated gossip and innuendo which, as we saw over the weekend, can lead to trouble.

It also smacks too much of the 'doing their Master's bidding' as in the McBride affair.

If politicians don't have the balls to blog themselves, then their paid employees shouldn't be doing it for them.

Smeargate - The beginning of the end

No doubt the focus tomorrow by the majority of political commentators will be on the broadsheet reaction to Gordon Brown's statement.

However, let us not forget the reaction of what is probably the most influential paper amongst swing voters across the UK, namely the Sun.

In their leader article for Tuesday, the paper states:

"Damian McBride couldn’t just hang his head and admit he had heaped shame on Downing Street, the Labour Party and his publicly-funded position. No.

Because spin is so ingrained in Labour’s psyche that admitting a damaging truth is never an option.
McBride, caught making up sordid lies about senior Tories and their wives, quit merely because “when a backroom adviser becomes the story, their position becomes untenable.”
Cabinet Office minister Liam Byrne circles the wagons, downplaying the smears and praising McBride’s forced resignation as “honourable”.
Downing Street, incredibly, gives McBride credit for deciding not to make his own lies public, while McBride hilariously claims he is “sickened” someone else did.
McBride’s sidekick — arch plotter Tom Watson — runs for cover, denying everything, even though he is said to have been sent the emails too.
Meanwhile dodgy bighead Derek Draper claims he and McBride were just mates shooting the breeze and that McBride didn’t deserve the axe.
Don’t believe any of it. This was not banter between pals. This was an orchestrated strategy of dishonesty.
The scandal is not that unfounded allegations were made public. They are patently false. It is that the PM’s head of strategy and planning believed making up a pack of lies to discredit the Tories, and thus to deceive voters, was a legitimate tactic.
And that Draper, a Labour aide, thought the idea “totally brilliant”.
Credit, then, to ex-Transport Minister Tom Harris for calling a spade a spade. The emails were odious, he said, and had damaged Labour. Everyone involved owed their Tory targets an apology.
Which is quite right. Though the truth of the matter is this:
It’s done a great deal more damage to Gordon Brown than to David Cameron"

Has Rupert Murdoch finally abandoned Gordon Brown and the Labour Party?

This article seems to suggest that if he hasn't yet, it won' t be long in coming.

Playing Dirty Politics

Over the weekend, we saw the beginning of what could be the dirtiest election campaign of modern times.

Unless you are living on Mars, you will probably be aware that Damian McBride, one of Gordon Brown's senior officials (below with the PM) sent emails which discussed the smearing of Conservative politicians through obscene innuendo.


He was forced to resign although it remains unclear how many others within the heart of Government knew about this plan.

Those not involved in politics will wonder why individuals would resort to personal insults when it should be the policies that matter.

Having been at the receiving end of such behaviour as a political candidate, I can tell you that it is not pleasant although what I experienced was nothing compared to what was planned for David Cameron, George Osborne and their families.

During the last election campaign, I had to instigate legal action against a prominent local academic (and previously a candidate for another political party) who was spreading lies about me.

I also had unsavoury comments about my family posted on my website which were well beyond any normal political debate.

Even the Daily Post itself received a letter, ghoulishly using a local undertaker’s address, which questioned my qualifications and academic credentials.

You expect a bit of knockabout in politics but having worked so hard over so many years in my professional career, I did begin to wonder why people bother to put themselves through the election process only to receive such personal abuse from cowards who clearly would never say such things to your face.

Some would argue that the growing use of the internet has been responsible for the increase in such behaviour.

On the other hand, as the Obama presidential campaign showed last year, the internet can also be a positive tool for invigorating supporters and attracting new voters.

In Wales, there has been a growing internet presence by politicians, although the Labour Party has been slow in getting its act together.

That is probably why Labour luminaries such as Peter Hain and Eluned Morgan recently set up their own website called Aneurin Glyndwr which was allegedly inspired by the Obama campaign.
Its first communication piece was a video using the Tom Jones song Delihah to criticise Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives.

It was widely ridiculed and subsequent posts have set a largely unsavoury tone of mainly attacking political opponents rather than focusing on their own party’s policies.

What is most surprising is that they are trying to play the ‘toff’ card with regard to David Cameron after this tactic failed miserably at the Crewe and Nantwich by-election which was won by the Conservatives.

Political commentators are at a loss to understand why Labour are resurrecting such ‘class war’ politics at a time when voters are generally turned off by such comments and given that Tony Blair, their most successful leader, was himself educated privately at Fettes independent school in Edinburgh (popularly known as the Eton of Scotland).

There is a new politics emerging across the world that and in resorting to such tactics, the Labour Party is in danger of being stuck in a world of spin, innuendo and smear.

This was best demonstrated in a recent speech by the wife of the politician who supposedly inspired this new Labour website.

Speaking to schoolchildren in London, Michelle Obama said that "Whether you come from a council estate or a country estate, your success will be determined by your own confidence and fortitude. We are counting on you, we are counting on every single one of you to be the best that you can be."

It is not the politics of envy but the politics of opportunity that defines today’s society.

If it wants to survive in the 21st century, then the Labour Party would do well to remember that, especially on the internet.

Epistemological problems

With 'smeargate' threatening to blow up into something far more serious than an exchange of emails amongst mates, politicians should go into their attics to dig out the old videotapes of Yes Prime Minister, although Guido does recommend something more modern.

The one I would recommend more than any other is the last episode in which Jim Hacker is told a few home truths by Sir Humphrey.

Just a shame that there seem to be more special advisers than civil servants in No 10 these days (although there is now thankfully one less after yesterday's debacle).

Damian McBride and those emails - the full details revealed

After yesterday's events of high drama, today sees the News of the World finally publishing the full details of the emails which were set to smear top Conservative politicians.

Whilst Damian McBride has fallen on his sword, his departure has only intensified speculation regarding the degree to which others in No 10 Downing St knew about this smear campaign.

There is an increasing stink of desperation around this government and its supporters, in which 'attack' seems to be the only strategy available to the Labour Party.

You only have to look at the new Aneurin Glyndwr website to see this trend growing in Wales - devoid of any ideas or policies and focusing solely on attacking other parties through gossip and character assassination.

It shows how far a once great political movement has fallen.

More on this tomorrow.

Real jobs for real people

Last week, Ieuan Wyn Jones, the Minister for Economy and Transport, stated his party, Plaid Cymru, was “calling for a fiscal stimulus during this recession – a stimulus targeted at real jobs in the real economy, not at banks, bankers, insurance companies and the City”.

With bankers such as Sir Fred Goodwin being vilified for their role in creating the credit crunch, it is easy to play the role of the populist politician and apply the same broad-brush criticism to the rest of the financial services industry.

However, given his own department has identified this as a key sector to nurture and support, many would be surprised and disappointed at this sudden case of selective amnesia regarding the importance of banks, insurance companies and other financial services companies to the Welsh economy.

According to the Welsh Assembly Government, there are more than 1,800 financial services companies located in Wales, employing nearly 30,000 people and contributing more than 5% to the prosperity of the economy.

Within this group, banks and building societies are the largest employer with 62% of the financial services workforce, although the insurance and pension industry accounts for 21% of all employees in the sector. Those concerned with inward investment activities have rightly targeted the attraction of such companies from their expensive London bases for the past two decades.

As a result, banks such as HSBC, HBOS and Lloyds TSB have been supported in setting up their operations here in Wales, along with major insurance players such as Legal and General.

Of course, the jewel in the crown of the financial services sector is not an inward investing company but a homegrown success story.

Established in 1993, Admiral Insurance has become one of the major triumphs in the financial services industry over the past 15 years.

Led by the irrepressible Henry Engelhardt, the company is Wales’ most successful stock market flotation and, for the fifth year since it went public, delivered record profits in its past financial year. Indeed, it posted pre-tax profits of £202.5m on a turnover of £910m in 2008, and continues to expand its operations at home and abroad.

Most importantly, Admiral – which employs more than 2,800 staff – is an exemplar to all other businesses in the way it supports the development of its employees.

Yet again, the company was named one of the 10 best employers in the UK in the Financial Times list of the UK’s 50 Best Workplaces, and is one of only 10 companies to feature in the list for each of the six years it has been compiled.

If there was ever a case of one business demonstrating it has real jobs for real people in Wales, then this fantastic insurance company surely is it.

Admiral, however, isn’t the only homegrown entrepreneurial success story within this sector.
The North Wales-based company moneysupermarket.com, founded by Simon Nixon in 1999, has helped to revolutionise the way in which the financial services sector operates on the internet.

Small niche companies, such as YS3 Loans.com and HHF PLC, have also been making their mark as regular entrants on the annual list of Wales Fast Growth 50 firms, developing new areas of financial services which are key to providing funding and support to both consumers and businesses.

Therefore, with thousands of well-paid jobs across Wales, and companies that are making a significant difference to their clients, the financial services sector is one to be celebrated, not disparaged, by our elected politicians.

But it isn’t only in terms of wealth and employment that financial services companies are having an impact on Wales. While politicians are being judgmental about the sector, it is easy to forget that without the support of financial services firms in Wales, the arts, sports and culture sector would also suffer.

Where would the National Eisteddfod be without HSBC’s financial support?

Where would grassroots rugby be without the Principality Building Society’s sponsorship?

Perhaps in the future, politicians, especially those with an economic brief, would be wise to consider their reaction to the current recession before casting aspersions on the tens of thousands of hard-working employees of key firms in the economy of Wales.

It may play well with the party faithful but it is clear from the success of companies such as Admiral, moneysupermarket.com and others, the sector is providing real jobs for real people and without it, the Welsh economy would be a poorer place.

Betrayal of the small firm sector

Another day and another example of how Plaid Cymru in Government is not listening to their grassroots members.

This time, it is the Plaid Cymru fortress of Gwynedd County Council who have broken with their colleagues in the Assembly.

On Wednesday, the leader of Gwynedd, Dyfed Edwards, stated in the Daily Post that he has

"already raised the possibility of reducing business rates as a significant practical means of easing the cash flow and credit problems facing local businesses with the Assembly Government’s Deputy First Minister and Minister for the Economy and Transport Ieuan Wyn Jones, and I have now formally written to him to request that the One Wales Assembly Government considers introducing this measure as a strategic priority.”

And the response from Ieuan to this call from his flagship local authority - nothing. However, we do get the usual response from the 'Assembly spokesperson' :

“Across the board business rates reductions would mean that we could not target enough resources to those in most need. If business rates were reduced, the Assembly Government would have to make up the shortfall in revenue collected by reducing spending in other areas.

I would think in this time of economic crisis that it is fairly easy to make the argument that those most in need are the tens of thousands of small businesses which are still facing an increase in their business rates this year.

As for reducing spending in other areas, that is a matter for the Assembly Government although as I have suggested previously, they could certainly look to shift some of the hundreds of millions spent on business support directly into the pockets of our small firms.

I also seem to recall that the same argument was not used in shifting resources over to the ProAct scheme (which this blog identified as a possible solution well before any economic summit came up with the same idea).

Simply put, all three Plaid ministers, all of whom made public pronouncements for reductions in business rates prior to the last Assembly elections, clearly have no say whatsoever around the Cabinet table when it comes to spending decisions.

Indeed, there is now no difference whatsoever between the economic policies being pursued by this Red-Green Government and those pursued by Labour between 2003-2007.

Can those Plaid Cymru Ministers answer me this?

What is the point of having a portfolio for the economy if all you do with it is continue the failed policies of your predecessor, policies which you criticised vehemently whilst in opposition?

What is the point of being in power if all you do is allow your Government to slavishly replicate the policies of the Labour Government in Westminster regarding business rates?

At a time when political commentators are talking about issues such as the Welsh Language LCO and the devolution referendum as those by which the coalition government could fall, it is easy to forget that Plaid have been forced to abandon their main economic policy - cutting business rates for thousands of firms - in favour of staying in power.

In doing so, they have betrayed the small firm sector which they purport to support and, worst still, have betrayed the very essence of devolution, which is doing things differently, and better, for the Welsh nation.

MPs' expenses

As memories of the G20 fades into the distance, there is growing consensus among commentators that the issue of MPs' expenses will probably be one of the defining factors of the next general election.

Even those at the top of the greasy pole cannot escape the fact that, despite "keeping within the rules", they have broken the spirit of claiming those expenses that are needed to do their job properly. According to one paper,

"Gordon Brown and chancellor Alistair Darling are the latest political heavyweights to be caught up in the swirling expenses row. Mr Brown has claimed more than £17,000 in second-home expenses since becoming prime minister. Since 2001, Mr Brown has claimed more than £116,000 in expenses. Mr Darling, meanwhile, is claiming thousands of pounds in second home allowances for his constituency house in Edinburgh, despite living in a taxpayer-funded Downing Street apartment and renting out his London flat. It also emerged housing minister Margaret Beckett and former home secretary David Blunkett have all benefited from generous second-home expenses".

I am sure many will have seen Jacqui Smith's appearances across the TV channels yesterday which were, frankly, embarrassing, and she dug an even deeper hole for herself and her Party. The Channel 4 interview below really sums it all up and devastating fro the Home Secretary and her party.



Given that Labour currently has the largest number of MPs, the expenses issue would be expected to hit them hardest in the run-up to the next general election, especially if David Cameron declares that he will unilaterally set up a system to make expenses more transparent.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the public has had enough of this charade and the party who promises to clean this up will, to use a pun, also clean up at the next election.

Bureaucracy, management and the NHS

Last week, it was announced that the workforce in the National Health Service had increased to 1,368,200 by September 2008, a rise of more than 27 per cent in a decade.

This should be of little surprise to anyone, given the fact that we are all living longer and that there is increased pressure on the health service to provide more staff to cope with the higher demand from patients.

The critical question, of course, is whether the additional resources for staff is going on front line services or on supporting the bureaucracy that has become the byword for the health service up and down the land.

For example, the census by the NHS Information Centre showed that whilst the number of nurses employed went up by 2.1 per cent, the proportion of managers increased by 9.4 per cent. Indeed, there are now 5,000 more managers employed to care for the organisation than there are actual consultants to care for the sick.

A small fortune is being spent on senior management. Executives within the NHS have just enjoyed an inflation-busting salary increase of 7.6 per cent, reaching an average salary of £158,000.

The question is whether this inflation in executive pay across the sector has resulted in a similar increase in the quality of management across the service. Some critics would doubt this, pointing to disasters such as the 400 deaths at the Mid-Staffordshire NHS Foundation Hospital Trust where managers spent too much time filling in paperwork to cover their backs rather than dealing with key problems.

In North Wales, there has certainly been a growth in the bureaucracy within the health service. During the Assembly election campaign, I undertook detailed research which showed the massive increases in the cost of administration and bureaucracy within the NHS in North Wales at a time when local hospitals were being downgraded or shut.

During the period 2003-2006, the overall cost of managerial, administrative, facilities and maintenance staff increased by £24 million, representing an increase of 41 per cent in non–medical staff costs over three years.

The cost of administrative staff alone has increased by over £12 million pounds, with 230 new administrators and clerical staff employed as compared to 156 new doctors and 268 new nurses. Worst of all, the cost of senior management of all three trusts had risen by £5.2 million pounds, an increase of 53 per cent.

At that time, it was clearly wrong that hospitals were being downgraded by an NHS that had spent over £24 million on increased administration costs and only time will tell whether the recent reorganisation of health services in North Wales will have any effect of reducing red tape within the hospital sector.

Whilst professional management systems within the NHS are important to its operation, this should not be at the expense of vital medical services within local hospitals.

With the Welsh Assembly Government suggesting that it will need to save half a billion pounds from its budget next year and the health department being the single biggest spender of public funds in Wales, it would be expected that any focus on cutting costs would be on the tens of millions spent on bureaucracy within the NHS every year.

However, I wouldn’t hold my breath although if there are any cuts in frontline services before addressing the spiralling management costs across the NHS, then yet again the support of Ministers for our health service will be just empty rhetoric.

Wales, Charles Darwin and the HMS Beagle

At a time of recession caused by the greed of bankers and incompetence of politicians across the world, it is easy to forget the importance and wonder of human endeavour in the field of science and discovery.

Nowhere is that greater than in the case of Charles Darwin, the English naturalist born 200 years ago who completely changed the way the human race perceived the origins of life itself.

But what of the links between one of the greatest scientists who ever lived and Wales?

As the excellent exhibition, “Darwin: A Revolutionary Scientist”, at the National Museum in Cardiff demonstrates, this visionary man spent periods of his life within Wales.

In particular, it has been argued that the geological work that Darwin undertook in Wales in 1831 just before embarking on the Beagle was critical to his discoveries and later, his theory of evolution.

As a result, it is not surprising that various Welsh projects have been established which use the great man’s name to celebrate scientific discovery.

For example, Professor Tony Campbell of Cardiff University has established the Darwin Centre for Biology and Medicine. This aims to increase the public understanding of science and health through a number of programmes that have developed strong links with local schools and organisations in Pembrokeshire.

It has been an outstanding success and is a project that could and should be replicated across all of Wales to awaken the natural curiosity of schoolchildren for the natural world.

Another Pembrokeshire-based initiative with links to Charles Darwin is the Beagle Trust project. This aims to build a replica of the HMS Beagle at Milford Haven to celebrate the bicentenary of Darwin’s birth, with the aim of undertaking his epic five-year voyage around the world.

The new Beagle, while being a traditional sailing ship, will have the latest scientific research equipment on board. Its mission will also focus on developing a greater understanding of biodiversity and climate change, providing an international focus for promoting a wider public understanding of science.

The development of the modern version of the Beagle will cost £5m and certainly with the business community going through a recession, there are real challenges for the fundraisers in getting sponsors interested in the project.

However, what must be remembered is that this is a 20-year investment in the future of science education and a major opportunity for promoting Wales across the globe. Yes, money is tight but the project has already managed to get Nasa to agree international co-operation with their space programme in working on scientific research into the fate of the world’s oceans, which is a tremendous achievement for an educational charity in the west of Wales.

This is certainly a project which not only looks to the future, but celebrates the future.

Most importantly, it gives Wales a unique opportunity to establish a global science educational programme that will make its mark across the world, not only in terms of science outreach and participation but also in maritime heritage and tourism.

There is enormous interest across the UK and other countries in developing this project further but the danger is that if the majority of the funding comes from outside of Wales, we will lose out in leading this unique project.

As Lord Livesey stated so eloquently in the House of Lords recently: “This project has the potential to remember Darwin and to inspire a new generation... it is a route to promoting our scientific and maritime inheritance while providing a beacon for the youth of the 21st century.”

Certainly, I would like to see the business community and the Welsh Assembly Government invest long term in a global project that will engage the public more closely with modern scientific issues and find novel and exciting ways of working within schools and universities to bring more young people into careers in science.

This is an entrepreneurial and innovative project that will not only put Wales on the map, but has the potential to make a real global impact.

It deserves the support of all of us.

Playboy and the Home Secretary

Hat tip to the irrepressible Mr Fawkes for this link but the Carry On-esque comments by Playboy TV on the Jacqui Smith expenses scandal is a classic piece of shameless opportunism...and great marketing.

According to the channel,

"Home Secretary Jacqui Smith’s future seems to be in doubt after she tried to claim the cost of two adult films her husband watched on expenses. Why should the taxpayer cover the cost of his adult package the newspapers cry? Well we at Playboy don’t mind what he does with his package and we’d like to offer all MPs and their husbands a special VIP subscription to Playboy known as the ‘Jacq off special.’

After a hard days voting on legislation, lunching and talking to Gordon Brown what better way is there to relax than a quality adult film on the Playboy channel? The Cabinet isn’t the only thing that benefits from a shuffle every now and then. There is also valuable family research the Smith’s can conduct on Playboy, including what their second cousin Anna Nicole got up to in her fascinating life.

It’s about time MPs and their partners stopped thinking adult channels are a ‘mistake’ or being ‘humiliated’ (well, that is catered for in a different way); they should celebrate the adult entertainment we provide! We’ll make MPs subscriptions cheaper and even bill them under the title of ‘entertainment’ or ‘personal trainer.’"

Say no more.

Pathetic

Just when I dared to hope for something different from the Welsh Assembly Government, they have, predictably, copied the Chancellor's announcement on business rates.

Read the statement below from Brian Gibbons and weep.

"I am pleased to announce that the Welsh Assembly Government intends to implement measures to help Welsh businesses with their rates bills. The action I propose is in line with that announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in respect of England, yesterday.

Under the current arrangements non-domestic rate bills for 2009-10 are set to increase by 5%. This is in accordance with the statutory provision in the Local Government Finance Act 1988 that the business rates “multiplier” – which determines the level of annual increase - should not rise by more than the retail price index (RPI) for the September preceding the rating year.

Since last September there has been a very rapid reduction in the RPI and I propose to bring forward regulations under the 1988 Act that will allow Welsh businesses, if they wish, to pay an annual increase of only 2% in 2009-10 with the remaining 3% spread over the following 2 years, 2010-11 and 2011-12. We will be discussing the details of the revised arrangements with the Treasury; the Welsh Local Government Association and Welsh Business. I propose to have the regulations needed to implement these changes in place in July.

This is a very welcome development. The Assembly Government made representations to the U.K. Government over the increase in the multiplier late last year, in the context of the discussions we have been having with Welsh business and other partners over combating the effect of the recession at our Economic Summit meetings.

As I have made clear on numerous occasions non-domestic rating functions are not fully devolved and the Assembly Government would have had to bear the cost of any unilateral action it took to reduce the multiplier increase. Every 1% reduction in the level of increase would represent a cost of around £8m in forgone revenue to the U.K. Government Exchequer. Yesterday’s announcement by the Chancellor in respect of England means that this will no longer be the case. The U.K. Government will meet the cost of the deferment in non-domestic rate income arising from these changes.

The changes I am proposing will reduce the rates bill in 2009-10 for potentially around 100,000 businesses in Wales by some £24m overall. They come in addition to the £20m in rate relief we are already giving to small businesses in Wales and the temporary increases in rates relief on empty properties in 2009-10 that I have announced and which come into effect from today.

The additional costs to local government resulting from the changes will be met centrally. We will be discussing the issue of costs with Local Government as soon as possible.

The amount of overall support for local authorities’ unhypothecated spending that the Assembly Government provides through Aggregate External Finance (which comprises revenue support grant and redistributable non-domestic rates) approved under the 2009-10 Local Government Revenue Settlement will remain unchanged.

The proposals will not require local authorities to re-bill businesses in their area as a result of these changes. Once the necessary regulations are in place billing authorities will write to all businesses in their area offering them the option to defer payments. Until then businesses will need to keep paying their business rates in the normal way. My officials will be writing out to local authorities within the next few days providing them with more details of these changes".

So the Assembly Government is now claiming credit for slavishly following the Chancellor's reductions which, in themselves, were forced upon him by intense lobbying from business organisations.

Yet again, this decision demonstrates a fundamental weakness at the heart of devolution in Wales and, as a pro-devolutionist, it breaks my heart.

The Cabinet, especially Plaid Cymru Ministers, should ask themselves what is the point of having a devolved government if all it does is copy everything that English ministers announce to the last letter.

More importantly, why are they spending a fortune on a commission to examine a referendum on further devolved powers when it refuses to take advantage of those powers that we already have?